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Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater
← Sat, Mar 14 · the slate
Breakdown · CBJ at PHI

Blue Jackets edge the Flyers in a shootout

Final / OTSat, Mar 14
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets2PHIPhiladelphia Flyers1
The verdict · coin flip

The Blue Jackets won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

CBJ 2 · PHI 1
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:11 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Expected goals called this dead even—2.83 to 2.80, Flyers by a hair. High-danger chances said otherwise: Columbus generated four to Philadelphia's two.

K. Marchenko converted at the doorstep with a backhander. The metrics had pointed there: the Blue Jackets outshot the Flyers 28–19 and generated six rebound chances, crashing the net effectively while the Flyers built volume. The Flyers underperformed their expected goals by 1.83 runs—wasting quality looks. Columbus also underperformed, though by half that margin (0.80 below expected). In a game governed by missed chances, the Blue Jackets' misses clustered outside the danger zone and Marchenko buried his.

Both goalies played spectacularly. J. Greaves (CBJ) stopped 18 of 19 for a 0.947 save percentage, running 1.83 goals above model. D. Vladar (PHI) posted 0.964 on 28 saves, also 1.80 above expected. That goaltending duel—combined with Columbus's superior quality in front—determined the result.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Mar 14
CBJ
2
PHI
1

Blue Jackets edge the Flyers in a shootout

Chances 2.8 – 2.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Blue Jackets took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
2.80
PHI
2.83
50% of the chances50%

The board read CBJ 2, PHI 1. The chances read CBJ 2.8, PHI 2.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CBJ
−0.8
goals above expected
CBJ2.80 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
PHI2.83 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Flyers left 1.8 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 04:21CBJK. Marchenko1–0
  2. P1 10:24PHIA. Bump1–1
  3. SO 00:00CBJK. MarchenkoPP1–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
44 shots
2
Final
79 shots
PHI
35 shots
1
CBJ attackPHI attack
CBJ PHI Goal
44
shots · 2 in
35
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJPHI
0 / 2
0.37 xG
High danger
0 / 4
0.90 xG
1 / 18
1.88 xG
Medium
1 / 15
1.61 xG
0 / 40
0.55 xG
Low
0 / 33
0.31 xG

The Flyers went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Greaves
+1.8
CBJ · 18/19
A
D. Vladar
+1.8
PHI · 27/28
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets edge the Flyers in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 13–6
  1. 04:21CBJK. Marchenko(A. Fantilli, D. Severson)1–0
  2. 10:24PHIA. Bump(E. Andrae, C. Dvorak)1–1
2ndshots 8–5no goals
    3rdshots 7–7no goals
      OTshots 0–1no goals
        SO
        1. 00:00CBJK. Marchenkopower play1–1

        score reads CBJ–PHI

        Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
        Process vs result

        The numbers

        XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
        2.80
        CBJ chances
        Goals their shots were worth
        −0.8
        Finishing
        Goals below what those chances were worth
        0.997
        CBJ puck luck
        About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
        53.6%
        Shot attempts
        Over half — they had the puck more
        Split by club

        Who controlled the game

        2.80Expected goals2.83
        PHI 50% of the chance quality
        28Shots on goal19
        2High-danger chances4
        60All attempts (Corsi)52
        Adjusted for score: CBJ 53% · PHI 47%
        Faceoffs · PHI won44%off52%neu45%def
        Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
        How the game was won

        The danger ladder

        shotsgoalsexpected
        High dangerslot & crease
        CBJ0 / 2 · 0.37 xG
        PHI0 / 4 · 0.90 xG
        Medium dangermid-range
        CBJ1 / 18 · 1.88 xG
        PHI1 / 15 · 1.61 xG
        Low dangerperimeter & point
        CBJ0 / 40 · 0.55 xG
        PHI0 / 33 · 0.31 xG

        PHI went 0-for-4 from high danger on 0.90 expected goals — 0.9 left on the table.

        Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
        The luck layer

        Finishing vs expected

        expectedactual
        CBJ
        2 G · 2.80 xG · -0.8
        PHI
        1 G · 2.83 xG · -1.8
        01234

        CBJ finished -0.8 against expected, PHI -1.8.

        Source · Backcheck xG model
        Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
        What they shot — and what went in

        Shot diet

        goalsshots
        CBJ
        WRIST1/27
        TIP IN0/3
        BACKHAND0/4
        SNAP0/4
        SLAP0/2
        DEFLECTED0/1
        OTHER0/19
        PHI
        WRIST0/17
        TIP IN1/5
        BACKHAND0/3
        SNAP0/2
        SLAP0/4
        DEFLECTED0/1
        OTHER0/20
        CBJ
        PHI
        Off the rush
        0 G on 25
        1.64 xG
        1 G on 24
        2.47 xG
        Off rebounds
        0 G on 6
        0.70 xG
        0 G on 2
        0.15 xG

        Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 1-for-27, PHI 0-for-17.

        Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
        New to these numbers?

        Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

        The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

        xG
        Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
        HD
        High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
        Corsi
        Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
        Adj.
        Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
        GSAx
        Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
        PDO
        Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
        Shot by shot

        In the net

        Graded on goals saved above expected
        J. Greaves
        CBJ · 18/19 · .947
        +1.8
        saved above expected
        A
        the night
        By dangerG/attxGsaved
        High danger0/40.9+0.9
        Medium1/151.6+0.6
        Low0/330.3+0.3

        A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

        D. Vladar
        PHI · 27/28 · .964
        +1.8
        saved above expected
        A
        the night
        By dangerG/attxGsaved
        High danger0/20.4+0.4
        Medium1/181.9+0.9
        Low0/400.6+0.6

        A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

        79 shots · press play to watch the game back

        Where the shots came from

        NHL play-by-play coordinates
        CBJ
        44 shots
        2
        Final
        79 shots
        PHI
        35 shots
        1
        CBJ attackPHI attack
        CBJ PHI Goal

        Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, PHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

        Ranked from the box score

        Three stars

        Points first
        Three stars · computed, not voted
        D. Severson
        #78 · D · CBJ
        0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 23:18 on ice
        K. Marchenko
        #86 · R · CBJ
        1 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 22:06 on ice
        C. Dvorak
        #22 · C · PHI
        0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 19:47 on ice
        Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
        What the model said beforehand

        Before the game

        Written Sat, Mar 14
        Open the pre-game read
        Written from the numbers

        The read

        Edited for clarity
        ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:10 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

        The model projects a CBJ 2.4 - 2.5 PHI game with the Flyers at 51% win probability. The Flyers hold a paper-thin edge—essentially a coin flip.

        Columbus drives territorial possession. Their Corsi sits at 51.0% against Philadelphia's 48.0%, meaning the Blue Jackets will likely control the boards and force the Flyers to defend their end for stretches. Shot quality tilts Columbus: CBJ's 52.0% xG% against Philadelphia's 51.0% suggests the Jackets are getting marginally cleaner looks.

        Yet Philadelphia's underlying numbers aren't far behind. The difference in expected goals per 60 minutes sits within rounding error—both teams hover around parity. Where Philadelphia gains: PDO (1.008 vs 1.003), a proxy for shooting luck and goaltending performance. It's a small edge, but over time such margins compound.

        Boone Jenner anchors Columbus's offense. He carries 0.98 xG per 60 with 11 goals and 21 assists, and has chipped in 2 high-danger chances. His 9.6% shooting rate leaves room for regression but suggests efficiency with his looks. Mathieu Olivier runs a comparable workload: 0.89 xG/60, 12 goals and 9 assists, 1 high-danger goal, and a healthier 13.3% shooting rate.

        Owen Tippett leads Philadelphia's scoring sheet with 19 goals in 18 assists. His 0.88 xG/60 sits almost flush with Olivier's. Christian Dvorak operates as a secondary engine: 0.81 xG/60, 12 goals, 21 assists, and 3 high-danger goals. His 11.2% shooting suggests room for positive variance, though the high-danger total hints at already-efficient placement.

        The goaltending situation introduces tactical friction. D. Vladar plays on back-to-back nights, which typically signals either a backup appearance or a fatigued starter. Either scenario favors Philadelphia's forward group—fresh legs against tired ones, or an untested backup absorbing high-volume pressure.

        Shot quality and possession edge belong to Columbus. Conversion luck and goaltending depth belong to Philadelphia. The model calls it essentially even, and the math bears that out: both teams excel at what they do, neither project to run away with expected goals, and neither can claim a true offensive or defensive advantage. One bounce the wrong way, one save the other way, and either team advances. That's exactly what 51% looks like.

        What the model said beforehand

        The model's lean

        PHI 51%
        51%
        PHI
        Model favorite
        49%
        51%
        CBJ50PHI

        PHI by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CBJ 2.4–2.5 PHI; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

        Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
        Season rates · 5v5

        Tale of the tape

        NHL stats API · our xG
        CBJ← edge
        edge →PHI
        52.0%51.0%
        51.0%48.0%
        2.632.26
        2.432.20
        2.121.96
        1.981.82
        1.0031.008

        CBJ holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 1.008) says PHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

        Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
        Form · Last 10
        CBJ
        5-1-4
        +5 GD · 2d rest
        PHI
        6-3-1
        -1 GD · 1d rest
        1.003
        CBJ PDO
        Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
        1.008
        PHI PDO
        Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
        What decides it

        Keys to the game

        Where the edges live
        • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
        Things to watch
        • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
        • D. Vladar is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
        Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

        Lineups

        NHL box score
        CBJ
        Expected in goal
        E. Merzlikins
        2 days rest.905 last start
        Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

        No completed game on file for this club yet.

        PHI
        Expected in goal
        D. Vladar
        back-to-back.913 last start
        Backup Dan Vladar · +13.8 GSAx this season
        Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

        No completed game on file for this club yet.

        Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

        Computed danger · scouting

        Players to watch

        NHL stats API · our xG
        CBJ
        Boone Jenner11G 21A
        0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
        Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
        0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
        PHI
        Owen Tippett19G 18A
        0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh
        Christian Dvorak12G 21A
        0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh
        Keep going

        Where to next

        Back to the front page