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← Mon, Mar 16 · the slate
Breakdown · BOS at NJD

Devils edge the Bruins in overtime

Final / OTMon, Mar 16
BOSBoston Bruins3NJDNew Jersey Devils4
The verdict · earned

The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

BOS 3 · NJD 4
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:28 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

New Jersey controlled underlying play despite tied high-danger chances. The Devils beat Boston 4-3 in overtime with 61% of shot attempts and 57% of 5v5 expected goals (3.88 to 2.93), even as both teams created four chances each in dangerous areas.

Boston was clinical where it counted. They converted 2 of 4 high-danger opportunities (50%), but New Jersey's depth in secondary chances made the difference. The Devils scored 4 goals off the rush on 29 chances versus Boston's 2 on 24, turning speed into goals. New Jersey also generated 4 rebound chances and crashed the net relentlessly, creating pressure that wore down Boston's defense.

J. Korpisalo made 30 saves on 34 shots (0.882 SV%) for Boston. J. Markstrom stopped 19 of 22 (0.864 SV%) for New Jersey. The Bruins had the precision; the Devils had the volume. Paul Cotter's wrist shot from the doorstep at 04:53 of overtime ended it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Mar 16
BOS
3
NJD
4

Devils edge the Bruins in overtime

Chances 2.9 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Devils earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
BOS
2.93
NJD
3.88
43% of the chances57%

The board read BOS 3, NJD 4. The chances read BOS 2.9, NJD 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NJD
+0.1
goals above expected
NJD3.88 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
BOS2.93 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 04:02BOSD. Pastrnak1–0
  2. P1 14:29BOSP. Zacha2–0
  3. P2 00:32NJDC. Brown2–1
  4. P2 08:08NJDJ. Bratt2–2
  5. P3 02:50NJDP. Cotter2–3
  6. P3 04:32BOSD. Pastrnak3–3
  7. OT 04:53NJDP. Cotter3–4
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BOS
34 shots
3
Final
85 shots
NJD
51 shots
4
BOS attackNJD attack
BOS NJD Goal
34
shots · 3 in
51
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BOSNJD
2 / 4
0.86 xG
High danger
1 / 4
1.00 xG
1 / 11
1.57 xG
Medium
3 / 19
2.15 xG
0 / 30
0.50 xG
Low
0 / 48
0.73 xG

High-danger looks: BOS 2 of 4, NJD 1 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
C
J. Markstrom
−0.1
NJD · 19/22
C
J. Korpisalo
−0.1
BOS · 30/34
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Devils edge the Bruins in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–6
  1. 04:02BOSD. Pastrnak(H. Jokiharju, M. Khusnutdinov)1–0
  2. 14:29BOSP. Zacha(V. Arvidsson, C. McAvoy)2–0
2ndshots 8–17
  1. 00:32NJDC. Brown(J. Hughes)2–1
  2. 08:08NJDJ. Bratt(C. Brown, J. Hughes)2–2
3rdshots 5–6
  1. 02:50NJDP. Cotter(M. Tsyplakov, B. Dillon)2–3
  2. 04:32BOSD. Pastrnak3–3
OTshots 1–5
  1. 04:53NJDP. Cotter(J. Hughes, D. Hamilton)3–4

score reads BOS–NJD

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.88
NJD chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.1
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
0.990
NJD puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
61.2%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.93Expected goals3.88
NJD 57% of the chance quality
22Shots on goal34
4High-danger chances4
45All attempts (Corsi)71
Adjusted for score: BOS 37% · NJD 63%
Faceoffs · NJD won52%off63%neu33%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
BOS2 / 4 · 0.86 xG
NJD1 / 4 · 1.00 xG
Medium dangermid-range
BOS1 / 11 · 1.57 xG
NJD3 / 19 · 2.15 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
BOS0 / 30 · 0.50 xG
NJD0 / 48 · 0.73 xG

BOS went 2-for-4 from high danger on 0.86 expected goals — 1.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
BOS
3 G · 2.93 xG · +0.1
NJD
4 G · 3.88 xG · +0.1
012345

BOS finished +0.1 against expected, NJD +0.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
BOS
WRIST2/11
SLAP0/8
SNAP0/5
TIP IN0/5
BACKHAND1/4
WRAP AROUND0/1
POKE0/0
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/11
NJD
WRIST2/24
SLAP1/11
SNAP1/8
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND0/3
WRAP AROUND0/0
POKE0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/20
BOS
NJD
Off the rush
2 G on 24
2.44 xG
4 G on 29
2.86 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 0
0.00 xG
0 G on 4
0.48 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: BOS went 2-for-11, NJD 2-for-24. NJD scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Korpisalo
BOS · 30/34 · .882
-0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/41.0+0.0
Medium3/192.1-0.8
Low0/480.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Markstrom
NJD · 19/22 · .864
-0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/40.9-1.1
Medium1/111.6+0.6
Low0/300.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

85 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
BOS
34 shots
3
Final
85 shots
NJD
51 shots
4
BOS attackNJD attack
BOS NJD Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, NJD right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Hughes
#86 · C · NJD
0 G · 3 A · 4 SOG · 24:16 on ice · +2
D. Pastrnak
#88 · R · BOS
2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 24:03 on ice · +1
C. Brown
#16 · R · NJD
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 19:50 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Mar 16
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:27 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils are favored at 54% in a 2.5-2.7 game—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The Devils own the underlying play. Their 50.0% 5v5 expected goals share to Boston's 47.0% extends to possession—51.0% Corsi to 49.0%. Boston has no edge in this matchup.

The real story is luck. Boston's PDO sits at 1.023; they're running hot and won't hold it. New Jersey is at 0.971, running cold in the way that invites regression. Both teams are due to regress toward their actual talent.

Players to Watch:

Viktor Arvidsson (BOS) leads with 1.04 xG/60 and 18 goals, but his 13.0% shooting sits elevated; he's generating real chances (2 high-danger goals) but some won't land twice. Tanner Jeannot (BOS) runs cooler on volume—0.75 xG/60, just 6 goals—though he's clicked on high-danger chances (2 HD goals) and his 8.3% shooting can compress.

Timo Meier (1.08 xG/60, 13 goals, 3 HD) hunts downhill for the Devils, living in dangerous areas. Jack Hughes (0.88 xG/60, 18 goals, 1 HD) is the engine that drives possession. Hughes's 11.5% shooting is reasonable; Meier's 6.7% leaves runway.

The tactical edge cuts both ways. Elias Lindholm is a defensive liability for Boston; Johnathan Kovacevic is New Jersey's weak link on the back end. Both teams have posted 0% of their goals from rebounds and 0% from high-danger finishes—noise at this sample size, but worth noting if either team generates low traffic.

The model is right: genuine parity. The Devils control the puck and generate better chances. Boston's hot hand with the puck keeps this from being a clear lean. Expect tight margins and unforgiving goaltending.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NJD 54%
54%
NJD
Model favorite
46%
54%
BOS50NJD

NJD by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 2.5–2.7 NJD; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
BOS← edge
edge →NJD
47.0%50.0%
49.0%51.0%
2.392.45
2.672.50
2.221.66
1.822.23
1.0230.971

NJD holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.023 vs 0.971) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
BOS
5-3-2
-2 GD · 2d rest
NJD
5-5-0
+2 GD · 2d rest
1.023
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.971
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Devils own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
  • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Devils own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
BOS
Expected in goal
J. Swayman
2 days rest.929 last start
Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NJD
Expected in goal
J. Allen
2 days rest.871 last start
Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
BOS
Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
NJD
Timo Meier13G 15A
1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
Jack Hughes18G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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