The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado's 4–1 win had a sharp disagreement with its underlying metrics: the Avalanche went 0–9 on high-danger chances while Soderblom stopped all nine. They won instead on rush volume, scoring 4 goals on 34 rush opportunities—a ratio that overwhelmed Chicago's transition defense.
The Blackhawks held 29% of shot attempts and generated 2.72 expected goals, then squandered even that meager share. Blackwood saved 1.72 goals above expected, suffocating Chicago whenever they approached the net with purpose. Colorado paid for their own inefficiency in the slot: they underperformed their 5.25 xG by 1.25 goals, a consequence of Soderblom's near-perfection on high-danger chances. Yet Colorado's relentless rush attacks, combined with 8 rebound opportunities against a scrambling defense, proved unstoppable.
Chicago never escaped the defensive zone long enough to generate sustained offense. Colorado's volume in transition was the deciding factor.
