The Penguins won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
Pittsburgh controlled the shot volume and high-danger chances, yet expected goals split nearly even — a sign that Winnipeg was lethal where it mattered. The Penguins still won 5-4 in a shootout, but their dominance in volume didn't translate to underlying quality.
Pittsburgh held 56% of shot attempts (32–25 on goal) and created 9 high-danger chances to Winnipeg's 5. Expected goals finished 4.19–3.97, a 51–49 split that exposed Pittsburgh's inefficiency. Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck made 28 saves at 0.875 save percentage; Pittsburgh's A. Silovs stopped 21 of 25 at 0.840. That seven-point gap in stopping ability is the kind of variance that decides close games.
Both teams were lethal in transition. Pittsburgh scored 4 goals on 31 rush chances while Winnipeg scored 2 on 33, revealing Pittsburgh's efficiency in space. Where Winnipeg hurt Pittsburgh was zone discipline. The Jets were clinical in the high-danger areas — converting 2 of 5 chances (40%) — yet undermined themselves by scoring 2 goals from low-danger spots, the kind Hellebuyck should have absorbed. Pittsburgh crashed the net, creating 4 rebound opportunities that converted to nothing.
Pittsburgh overperformed expected goals by 0.81 goals, meaning they scored slightly more than underlying play would predict. Rickard Rakell's wrist shot from the slot in the shootout was the difference, the moment Winnipeg's discipline finally broke.