The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Montreal's 5-2 win conceals a lopsided affair: they recorded just 19 shots against 43 (31% of attempts), yet dominated almost everything else.
The expected-goals picture confirmed it. Montreal held 56% (5.72–4.49), built on surgical shot quality—0.127 xG per attempt versus Carolina's 0.052. They were out-creating, not outshooting.
High-danger chances went 11–6 Montreal. Carolina's finish was grim: they underperformed their 4.49 xG by 2.49 goals, going 0-for-6 on dangerous looks. Montreal underperformed theirs by just 0.72.
The rush game was lopsided in conversion. Montreal scored 3 on 17 chances; Carolina managed 2 on 42. Crashing the net told the same story—Montreal generated four rebound opportunities (1 converted), Carolina created five (0 converted).
J. Dobes made 41 saves on 43 (0.953 SV%, +2.49 above expected). The turning point came early: a snap shot from Jake Evans (P3, 19:00). By the time the three stars posted—J. Slafkovský (1G, 1A in 19:30), C. Caufield (1G, 1A in 18:33), I. Demidov (1G, 1A in 11:58)—the verdict was done. F. Andersen stopped 1.72 goals above expected, but no goalie saves a team that generates nothing dangerous.
Three Stars
- J. Slafkovský (MTL) — 1G, 1A
- C. Caufield (MTL) — 1G, 1A
- I. Demidov (MTL) — 1G, 1A
