Motion-blurred skater in a Florida Panthers sweater

Breakdown · SEA at FLA

Panthers edge the Kraken in a shootout

Final / OTTue, Mar 24

The verdict · coin flip

The Panthers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

SEA 4 · FLA 5

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:40 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Panthers won because they scored more than they deserved. Expected goals favored Seattle 3.67–3.47; the Panthers overperformed their xG by 1.53 goals, turning a close game into a shootout victory.

The underlying play was tight. The Kraken created more high-danger chances (8–6). The Panthers generated 4 goals on 25 rush attempts, compared to Seattle's 3 on the same volume—a marginal efficiency gain that proved decisive. Rebound chances told a different story: the Panthers created four but converted none, showing that their offensive pressure came from speed, not setup play.

Vinnie Hinostroza's backhander from the doorstep in the shootout sealed it, the moment a team that had underperformed its fundamentals finally got lucky when it mattered most.

The goaltending split reflected the game's chaos. J. Daccord stopped 21 of 24 (0.875 SV%), while S. Bobrovsky made 23 of 27 (0.852 SV%). Neither was dominant, but both faced a barrage of chances and survived. The Panthers' ability to finish at the rush—and the Kraken's relative inability to convert their chances elsewhere—made the difference.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Mar 24

SEA

FLA

Panthers edge the Kraken in a shootout

Chances 3.7 – 3.5Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Panthers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

SEA

3.67

FLA

3.47

51% of the chances49%

The board read SEA 4, FLA 5. The chances read SEA 3.7, FLA 3.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

FLA

+1.5

goals above expected

FLA3.47 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

SEA3.67 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

The Panthers scored 1.5 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 02:32FLAN. Foote0–1
P3 05:16FLAE. Luostarinen0–2
P3 07:37FLAC. Verhaeghe0–3
P3 08:10SEAR. Evans1–3
P3 12:21FLAN. Gregor1–4
P3 14:17SEAM. Beniers2–4
P3 16:24SEAJ. Eberle3–4

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

SEA

44 shots

Final

85 shots

FLA

41 shots

SEA FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

SEAFLA

2 / 8

1.90 xG

High danger

1 / 6

1.32 xG

1 / 13

1.41 xG

Medium

2 / 14

1.62 xG

1 / 33

0.36 xG

Low

1 / 38

0.53 xG

High-danger looks: SEA 2 of 8, FLA 1 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Daccord

+0.5

SEA · 21/24

S. Bobrovsky

−0.3

FLA · 23/27

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Panthers edge the Kraken in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 5–5no goals

2ndshots 9–8

02:32FLAN. Foote(N. Gregor, G. Forsling)0–1

3rdshots 13–8

05:16FLAE. Luostarinen(V. Hinostroza, E. Rodrigues)0–2
07:37FLAC. Verhaeghe0–3
08:10SEAR. Evans(J. Eberle, B. Catton)1–3
12:21FLAN. Gregor1–4
14:17SEAM. Beniers(B. Montour, A. Larsson)2–4
16:24SEAJ. Eberle3–4
16:38SEAB. McMann4–4

OTshots 0–4no goals

00:00FLAV. Hinostrozapower play4–4

score reads SEA–FLA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.47

FLA chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.5

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

0.995

FLA puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

51.8%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.67Expected goals3.47

SEA 51% of the chance quality

27Shots on goal25

8High-danger chances6

54All attempts (Corsi)58

Adjusted for score: SEA 52% · FLA 49%

Faceoffs · FLA won39%off52%neu43%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

SEA2 / 8 · 1.90 xG

FLA1 / 6 · 1.32 xG

Medium dangermid-range

SEA1 / 13 · 1.41 xG

FLA2 / 14 · 1.62 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

SEA1 / 33 · 0.36 xG

FLA1 / 38 · 0.53 xG

SEA went 1-for-33 from low danger on 0.36 expected goals — 0.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

SEA

4 G · 3.67 xG · +0.3

FLA

5 G · 3.47 xG · +1.5

0123456

SEA finished +0.3 against expected, FLA +1.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

SEA

WRIST1/21

SNAP2/4

SLAP1/10

BACKHAND0/4

TIP IN0/2

WRAP AROUND0/0

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/13

FLA

WRIST1/7

SNAP1/17

SLAP0/4

BACKHAND0/4

TIP IN0/3

WRAP AROUND0/1

DEFLECTED1/1

OTHER1/21

SEA

FLA

Off the rush

3 G on 25

3.26 xG

4 G on 25

2.65 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.17 xG

0 G on 4

0.55 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: SEA went 1-for-21, FLA 1-for-7. FLA scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Daccord

SEA · 21/24 · .875

+0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/61.3+0.3

Medium2/141.6-0.4

Low1/380.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Bobrovsky

FLA · 23/27 · .852

-0.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/81.9-0.1

Medium1/131.4+0.4

Low1/330.4-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

85 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

SEA

44 shots

Final

85 shots

FLA

41 shots

SEA FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — SEA left, FLA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Eberle

#7 · R · SEA

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 21:59 on ice · +2

N. Gregor

#18 · L · FLA

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 10:26 on ice · +2

B. Montour

#62 · D · SEA

0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 26:46 on ice · -1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Mar 24

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:39 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a SEA 2.3 - 2.6 FLA game with the Panthers at 55% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Florida's territorial advantage is real. The Panthers control play at 52.0% Corsi, a possession edge that compounds over sixty minutes. Seattle's expected goals lag Florida's—46.0% xG% versus 49.0%—suggesting the Kraken will face consistent pressure. That gap, combined with Florida's superior shot quality, should favor the home team.

But luck intervenes. Seattle's PDO of 1.011 means they're converting at a higher rate than quality of shot would predict; Florida's 0.989 PDO cuts the other way. That's a swing of roughly half a goal per game with nothing to do with talent.

The rest advantage belongs to Florida. The Panthers arrive fresh off three days rest while Seattle comes in on zero, a structural edge that typically manifests in third-period execution. Over a full game, fatigue compounds.

Players to Watch

SEA

Shane Wright — 0.77 xG/60, 8G 10A, 4 HD goals, 10.4% shooting
Berkly Catton — 0.68 xG/60, 6G 8A, 5 HD goals, 8.8% shooting

FLA

Sam Bennett — 0.97 xG/60, 18G 19A, 6 HD goals, 13.1% shooting
Brad Marchand — 0.93 xG/60, 17G 9A, 3 HD goals, 19.5% shooting ⚠️ Hasn't played in 18 days; status uncertain.

The territorial tilt, the rest advantage, and Florida's superior shot-quality numbers all point to the Panthers. So does that 55% model probability. But a five-percentage-point edge in a single game is noise wearing a lab coat. This is, genuinely, a coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

FLA 55%

55%

FLA

Model favorite

45%

55%

SEA50FLA

FLA by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SEA 2.3–2.6 FLA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

SEA← edge

edge →FLA

46.0%49.0%

45.0%52.0%

2.132.48

2.512.56

1.871.98

1.952.21

1.0110.989

FLA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.011 vs 0.989) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 0–10

SEA

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

FLA

4-6-0

-9 GD · 3d rest

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.989

FLA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
The Panthers have 3 more days of rest.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

SEA

Expected in goal

—

no game on file

No completed game on file for this club yet.

FLA

Expected in goal

D. Tarasov

3 days rest.889 last start

Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

FLA

Sam Bennett18G 19A

0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh

Brad Marchand17G 9A

0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page