The Avalanche stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.49–4.16 and won anyway.
Colorado stole this one. The Penguins controlled 63% of expected goals at 5v5, held 52% of shot attempts, and won the high-danger chances 7-4. They still lost 6-2.
This is what happens when goaltending variance breaks badly. S. Wedgewood was 2.16 goals above expected; A. Silovs was 2.51 goals below. The Penguins had the chances. The Avalanche had the execution.
Colorado generated 3.51 goals above their xG — elite finishing or bounces breaking right. Pittsburgh underperformed their xG by 2.16, wasting high-danger looks that should have buried the Avalanche. The Penguins created openings. The Avalanche converted them.
One shift tipped the balance: Ross Colton's wrist shot from the wing at 16:20 of the third period, on a night when Colorado was lethal in transition. The Avalanche scored 3 goals on 15 rush chances — a conversion rate that rendered Pittsburgh's territorial advantage pointless.
Colorado also dominated the net-front, generating 3 rebound opportunities and converting 1. Two Avalanche goals came from low-danger areas, the kind a goalie should stop. S. Wedgewood faced 32 shots and stopped 30; A. Silovs faced 29 and stopped 24. A 0.938 save percentage beats a 0.828 save percentage.
For Pittsburgh, the math is cruel: a 63-37 expected-goals advantage means nothing when the other team finishes and your goalie doesn't. The Penguins had possession and chances. They lacked execution.
