Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · DAL at NYI

I. Sorokin stands tall as the Islanders edge the Stars

FinalThu, Mar 26

The verdict · earned

The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

DAL 1 · NYI 2

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:59 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

High-danger chances ended 7–7, yet the Islanders won 2–1 — a reminder that close games are decided not by who creates opportunities but by who wastes them less severely.

The underlying metrics confirm the narrow margin: expected goals split 4.37–3.65 in New York's favor. But neither team converted. The Islanders underperformed their xG by 2.37 goals; Dallas underperformed by 2.65. Goaltending decided it.

I. Sorokin posted a 0.963 SV%, stopping 2.65 goals above expected on 27 shots. J. Oettinger (DAL) was nearly as sharp at 0.920 SV%, +2.37 on 25 shots. The difference between them was marginal; the margin in the game was one goal.

New York generated far more dangerous chances — 0.093 xG per shot versus Dallas's 0.062 — but squandered the edge. All seven high-danger attempts were wasted. The Stars also went 0/7 on high-danger chances. Matt Duchene's wrist shot from the high slot (17:01, P3) epitomized the story: a prime look, an expert goaltender, no goal.

The Islanders' edge came from the rush: 2 goals on 23 chances. Shot attempts favored Dallas 27–25, but quality mattered more than volume.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 26

DAL

NYI

I. Sorokin stands tall as the Islanders edge the Stars

Chances 3.6 – 4.4Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Islanders earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

DAL

3.65

NYI

4.37

46% of the chances54%

The board read DAL 1, NYI 2. The chances read DAL 3.6, NYI 4.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

−2.4

goals above expected

NYI4.37 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

DAL3.65 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Stars left 2.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 04:48NYIB. Horvat0–1
P3 02:19NYIC. Ritchie0–2
P3 17:01DALM. DuchenePP1–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

DAL

43 shots

Final

80 shots

NYI

37 shots

DAL NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 1 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

DALNYI

0 / 7

1.48 xG

High danger

0 / 7

1.95 xG

0 / 14

1.54 xG

Medium

1 / 16

1.97 xG

1 / 38

0.63 xG

Low

1 / 24

0.44 xG

The Stars went 0 for 7 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

I. Sorokin

+2.6

NYI · 26/27

J. Oettinger

+2.4

DAL · 23/25

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

I. Sorokin stands tall as the Islanders edge the Stars

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–10

04:48NYIB. Horvat(E. Heineman, M. Schaefer)0–1

2ndshots 11–6no goals

3rdshots 10–9

02:19NYIC. Ritchie(M. Schaefer, R. Pulock)0–2
17:01DALM. Duchenepower play(J. Benn, T. Harley)1–2

score reads DAL–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.37

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

−2.4

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.026

NYI puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

44.3%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.65Expected goals4.37

NYI 54% of the chance quality

27Shots on goal25

7High-danger chances7

59All attempts (Corsi)47

Adjusted for score: DAL 60% · NYI 40%

Faceoffs · NYI won54%off57%neu64%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

DAL0 / 7 · 1.48 xG

NYI0 / 7 · 1.95 xG

Medium dangermid-range

DAL0 / 14 · 1.54 xG

NYI1 / 16 · 1.97 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

DAL1 / 38 · 0.63 xG

NYI1 / 24 · 0.44 xG

NYI went 0-for-7 from high danger on 1.95 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

DAL

1 G · 3.65 xG · -2.6

NYI

2 G · 4.37 xG · -2.4

012345

DAL finished -2.6 against expected, NYI -2.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

DAL

WRIST1/27

BACKHAND0/7

SNAP0/3

TIP IN0/4

SLAP0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

BAT0/0

OTHER0/16

NYI

WRIST1/18

BACKHAND0/3

SNAP0/6

TIP IN1/3

SLAP0/3

DEFLECTED0/2

BAT0/2

OTHER0/10

DAL

NYI

Off the rush

1 G on 25

2.28 xG

2 G on 23

2.48 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 5

0.81 xG

0 G on 5

0.89 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: DAL went 1-for-27, NYI 1-for-18. NYI scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Oettinger

DAL · 23/25 · .920

+2.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/71.9+1.9

Medium1/162.0+1.0

Low1/240.4-0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Sorokin

NYI · 26/27 · .963

+2.6

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/71.5+1.5

Medium0/141.5+1.5

Low1/380.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

80 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

DAL

43 shots

Final

80 shots

NYI

37 shots

DAL NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — DAL left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 26:38 on ice · +1

T. Harley

#55 · D · DAL

0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 25:11 on ice · +1

B. Horvat

#14 · C · NYI

1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 21:08 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Mar 26

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:57 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5-2.5 game. Dallas at 50% win probability is a genuine pick'em. Their 51.0% 5v5 xG% signals better scoring chances versus the Islanders' 48.0%, but the margin is too thin to break a tie. Dallas' 1.024 PDO is running hot, and regression will shrink what little edge they have. The Islanders sit at 0.993, ripe to cash in on underlying play or give some back.

Shot quantity complicates the picture: Dallas controls just 47.0% Corsi while New York owns 49.0%. One team shoots better, the other more often. C. DeSmith is on a back-to-back—watch for a backup start or an exhausted starter.

Jason Robertson drives Dallas: 25G 21A on 0.96 xG/60 with 2 high-danger goals and 12.4% shooting. Michael Bunting has 8G 14A on 0.83 xG/60 at just 7.6%, suggesting either a coming surge or continued underperformance. Anders Lee is the Islanders' match: 1.20 xG/60, 9G 20A, 2 high-danger goals, 6.4% shooting—an elite chance generator that hasn't fully converted. Bo Horvat backs him: 0.87 xG/60, 18G 10A, 3 high-danger goals, 12.8% shooting.

Tyler Myers is Dallas' defensive weak point. Alexander Romanov is the Islanders'.

Dallas plays the cleaner underlying game, but not by enough. The Islanders' goaltending and a small dose of variance could flip a coin that genuinely leans either way.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

DAL 51%

51%

DAL

Model favorite

51%

49%

DAL50NYI

DAL by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DAL 2.5–2.5 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

DAL← edge

edge →NYI

51.0%48.0%

47.0%49.0%

2.362.48

2.292.69

2.071.78

1.681.94

1.0240.993

DAL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.024 vs 0.993) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

DAL

5-3-2

+1 GD · 1d rest

NYI

5-5-0

-3 GD · 2d rest

1.024

DAL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.

Regression watch

The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
C. DeSmith is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

DAL

Expected in goal

C. DeSmith

back-to-back.938 last start

Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

2 days rest.917 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

DAL

Jason Robertson25G 21A

0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh

Michael Bunting8G 14A

0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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