Motion-blurred skater in a Edmonton Oilers sweater

Breakdown · EDM at VGK

Oilers edge the Golden Knights in overtime

Final / OTThu, Mar 26

EDMEdmonton Oilers4 VGKVegas Golden Knights3

The verdict · stolen

The Oilers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.81–3.08 and won anyway.

EDM 4 · VGK 3

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:08 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Oilers won 4–3 in overtime, but the Golden Knights owned the underlying game — 3.08 expected goals to 2.81, with a 5–3 edge in high-danger chances. Edmonton's victory required overperformance by a full 1.19 goals.

The Golden Knights generated higher-quality scoring chances: 0.060 expected goals per shot versus Edmonton's 0.045. They crashed the net effectively, creating five rebound opportunities and converting two. Edmonton countered with rush efficiency — 2 goals on 27 rush chances, turning speed into the few high-leverage looks they needed.

C. Ingram stopped 26 of 29 for Edmonton and performed as expected. A. Hill made 25 saves for Vegas but gave up 1.19 goals more than his workload merited — the gap between workload and execution that decides close games. Shot attempts finished even at 29 apiece.

Evan Bouchard snapped a shot from the top of the circles at 03:10 of overtime. That was the game.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Mar 26

EDM

VGK

Oilers edge the Golden Knights in overtime

Chances 2.8 – 3.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Oilers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

EDM

2.81

VGK

3.08

48% of the chances52%

The board read EDM 4, VGK 3. The chances read EDM 2.8, VGK 3.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

EDM

+1.2

goals above expected

EDM2.81 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

VGK3.08 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 11:52EDMM. Savoie1–0
P2 04:09VGKM. Stone1–1
P2 07:27EDMC. McDavid2–1
P2 14:51VGKM. Stone2–2
P2 16:42EDMZ. Hyman3–2
P3 06:21VGKI. Barbashev3–3
OT 03:10EDME. Bouchard4–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

EDM

42 shots

Final

79 shots

VGK

37 shots

EDM VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

EDMVGK

1 / 3

0.73 xG

High danger

1 / 5

1.20 xG

3 / 14

1.49 xG

Medium

2 / 13

1.34 xG

0 / 45

0.60 xG

Low

0 / 33

0.54 xG

High-danger looks: EDM 1 of 3, VGK 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

C. Ingram

+0.1

EDM · 26/29

D-

A. Hill

−1.2

VGK · 25/29

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Oilers edge the Golden Knights in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–8

11:52EDMM. Savoie(C. McDavid, E. Bouchard)1–0

2ndshots 9–10

04:09VGKM. Stone(J. Eichel, I. Barbashev)1–1
07:27EDMC. McDavid(V. Podkolzin, M. Ekholm)2–1
14:51VGKM. Stone2–2
16:42EDMZ. Hyman3–2

3rdshots 10–7

06:21VGKI. Barbashev(P. Dorofeyev, S. Theodore)3–3

OTshots 2–4

03:10EDME. Bouchard(C. McDavid)4–3

score reads EDM–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.81

EDM chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.006

EDM puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

54.9%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.81Expected goals3.08

VGK 52% of the chance quality

29Shots on goal29

3High-danger chances5

62All attempts (Corsi)51

Adjusted for score: EDM 53% · VGK 47%

Faceoffs · VGK won37%off53%neu54%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

EDM1 / 3 · 0.73 xG

VGK1 / 5 · 1.20 xG

Medium dangermid-range

EDM3 / 14 · 1.49 xG

VGK2 / 13 · 1.34 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

EDM0 / 45 · 0.60 xG

VGK0 / 33 · 0.54 xG

EDM went 3-for-14 from medium danger on 1.49 expected goals — 1.5 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

EDM

4 G · 2.81 xG · +1.2

VGK

3 G · 3.08 xG · -0.1

012345

EDM finished +1.2 against expected, VGK -0.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

EDM

WRIST3/27

SLAP0/8

TIP IN0/1

BACKHAND0/1

SNAP1/4

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/20

VGK

WRIST1/24

SLAP0/4

TIP IN0/4

BACKHAND2/4

SNAP0/0

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/14

EDM

VGK

Off the rush

2 G on 27

1.97 xG

1 G on 24

2.04 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.26 xG

2 G on 5

0.75 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: EDM went 3-for-27, VGK 1-for-24. EDM scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Ingram

EDM · 26/29 · .897

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.2+0.2

Medium2/131.3-0.7

Low0/330.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Hill

VGK · 25/29 · .862

-1.2

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/30.7-0.3

Medium3/141.5-1.5

Low0/450.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

79 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

EDM

42 shots

Final

79 shots

VGK

37 shots

EDM VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — EDM left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

C. McDavid

#97 · C · EDM

1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 22:12 on ice · +1

M. Stone

#61 · R · VGK

2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 23:40 on ice · +1

E. Bouchard

#2 · D · EDM

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 23:31 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Mar 26

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:06 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.4–2.6 game with Vegas at 54% win probability—pick'em territory.

Recent form complicates the picture. Edmonton is 5-4-1 over their last 10, the sharper record on the surface, but both teams are underwater in goal differential over that span: Edmonton at -6, Vegas at -8. The underlying numbers explain why. Over a full season at 5v5, Vegas edges Edmonton in expected goals share (54.0% to 52.0%) and shot volume (52.0% Corsi to 50.0%), suggesting the Golden Knights have been the better even-strength team. Both clubs are running cold on PDO—Edmonton at 0.982, Vegas at 0.983—which means positive regression is due for both. When two teams are this close in process and both regressing the same direction, the spread tightens.

Goaltending adds uncertainty. A. Hill and T. Jarry are both on back-to-backs, which increases the odds of a backup start or a tired starter depending on coach preference. That's a wildcard neither team can fully control going in.

Individual talent tilts the game toward Edmonton. Zach Hyman has generated the most expected goals at 1.23 per 60 minutes and bankrolled 14 goals and 13 assists with a 13.0% shooting rate. Connor McDavid is at 0.92 xG/60 with 25 goals and 33 assists—his 13.7% shooting rate reflects lethal efficiency. On Vegas's side, the offensive focal points are compromised. Brandon Saad, who carries 0.91 xG/60, is marked inactive and likely unavailable. Tomas Hertl steps into a larger role at 0.88 xG/60 and carries 5 goals and 17 assists, though his 4.3% shooting rate trails the Edmonton stars.

Vegas's defensive weak link is Rasmus Andersson, while Edmonton has vulnerability at Jake Walman. Both edges are marginal in a game this tight. The matchup ultimately hinges on whether Edmonton's recent momentum and personnel offset Vegas's slight even-strength edge and favorable PDO regression. At 54%, the model is calling it a toss-up—and the numbers support the hesitation.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 54%

54%

VGK

Model favorite

46%

54%

EDM50VGK

VGK by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score EDM 2.4–2.6 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

EDM← edge

edge →VGK

52.0%54.0%

50.0%52.0%

2.642.52

2.472.11

2.132.12

2.292.10

0.9820.983

VGK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.982 vs 0.983) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

EDM

5-4-1

-6 GD · 1d rest

VGK

3-7-0

-8 GD · 1d rest

0.982

EDM PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

A. Hill is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
T. Jarry is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 in their last 10).
The Golden Knights are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

EDM

Expected in goal

T. Jarry

back-to-back.889 last start

Backup Connor Ingram · +1.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

VGK

Expected in goal

A. Hill

back-to-back.850 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

EDM

Zach Hyman14G 13A

1.23 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.0% sh

Connor McDavid25G 33A

0.92 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page