The Sharks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Sharks won 3–2 in a game where the underlying metrics told a different story than the final score.
San Jose controlled 67% of expected goals (4.82–2.34), a decisive advantage in puck possession and shot quality. They generated 8 high-danger chances to Columbus's 2, and their shot quality was sharper: 0.074 xG per shot vs. 0.052. Yet they converted zero of those eight premium looks.
E. Merzlikins prevented a wider margin. Columbus's goaltender stopped 1.82 goals above expected and stood perfect on eight high-danger shots. The Sharks underperformed their own xG by 1.82 goals, wasting their advantage in both volume and quality.
Columbus found efficiency through transition, scoring 2 goals on 23 rush chances despite holding only 40% of shot attempts (24–36). San Jose matched that output on 29 rush chances. The Sharks' dominance should have translated to a bigger margin, but Merzlikins' performance kept the result close.
A. Nedeljkovic stopped 22 of 24 for San Jose (0.917 SV%), posting the same save percentage as Merzlikins while facing weaker shot quality.