The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Montreal's 4–1 victory masked a fundamental imbalance in conversion. The teams generated equal high-danger chances (four each), but the Canadiens converted all four while Nashville scored once. Montreal controlled 57% of 5v5 expected goals (3.85–2.88) and 57% of shot attempts (32–24)—numbers that aligned with the scoreline in direction but not magnitude.
Variance explained the gap. The Predators underperformed their expected goals by 1.88 goals, a deficit that transformed a narrowly competitive contest into a rout. J. Fowler (MTL) saved 1.88 goals above expected on 23 of 24 shots (0.958 SV%), while J. Saros (NSH) finished with 28 of 32 saves (0.875 SV%).
Montreal's efficiency extended beyond goaltending. The Canadiens scored two goals on 34 rush attempts—a conversion rate that exposed Nashville's defensive vulnerabilities. Zachary L'Heureux's wrist shot from the slot at 16:26 of the third period marked the turning point.
N. Suzuki orchestrated the attack, posting two assists in 18:53 of ice time. I. Demidov (1G, 1A, 16:11) and O. Kapanen (1G, 1A, 16:05) proved the scoring depth extended beyond the top line.
