The Jets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Blackhawks created the higher-quality chances—4 high-danger opportunities to Winnipeg's 3—yet fell 4–3 in overtime.
Winnipeg's underlying advantage was decisive at 5v5. The Jets commanded 58% of expected goals (3.02–2.21), a margin that aligned with their scoreline despite the Blackhawks' edge in chance quality. Both teams overperformed their xG significantly: Chicago by 0.79 goals, Winnipeg by 0.98, suggesting variance played a role.
Winnipeg's conversion came from execution more than luck. The Jets were clinical off the rush, scoring 3 goals on 25 chances—their most efficient channel. They also crashed effectively, generating 3 rebound opportunities and converting 1, a simple formula that high-danger metrics miss. The Blackhawks, meanwhile, were efficient in the one area they dominated: they converted 2 of 4 high-danger chances (50%), a lethal rate that nearly carried them.
The overtime winner came at 00:33 via Kyle Connor's wrist shot from the slot.
Both goalies underperformed. C. Hellebuyck finished 18/21 (0.857 SV%), 0.79 below expected—exactly the margin Chicago overshot xG. S. Knight allowed 4 on 24 shots (0.833 SV%), 0.98 below expected, the amount Winnipeg overperformed.