The Senators rolled past the Sabres 4-1. Ottawa generated 4.36 expected goals to Buffalo's 2.30—a 65–35 split—by firing higher-quality chances: 0.081 xG per attempt versus Buffalo's 0.050. Buffalo underperformed their modest xG by 1.30 goals, unable to capitalize even with decent chances. L. Ullmark (21/22, 0.955 SV%, +1.30 vs expected) was superb for Ottawa, shutting down what little Buffalo had. U. Luukkonen played above expectations for Buffalo (20/22, 0.909 SV%, +2.36 vs expected) but was overwhelmed. Ottawa won the high-danger zone 4–2 and converted 3 of 24 rush chances into goals.

Shane Pinto's wrist shot from the high slot (P3, 18:42) was the inflection point—when Ottawa's dominance became irresistible.

The model projects a BUF 2.3 - 2.7 OTT game with Ottawa favored at 57% win probability. The edge is straightforward: the Senators own the underlying play.

At even strength, Ottawa generates 56.0% expected goals against Buffalo's 50.0%, and controls territory at 53.0% Corsi to Buffalo's 49.0%. The tilt runs through the full 60 minutes — this isn't a one-period advantage but a structural dominance in puck possession and shot quality.

The risk lives in Buffalo's goaltending fortunes. The Sabres' PDO sits at 1.020 — running hot — while Ottawa's 0.993 signals regression risk the other way. Regression works both directions. If Buffalo's shooting luck normalizes downward or its save percentage tightens, that 2.3 - 2.7 projection widens in Ottawa's favor quickly.

The players to watch:

BUF

• Jason Zucker: 1.07 xG/60, 14G 14A, 6 HD goals, 15.1% shooting
• Josh Doan: 1.01 xG/60, 15G 18A, 2 HD goals, 11.5% shooting

OTT

• Brady Tkachuk: 1.19 xG/60, 11G 20A, 2 HD goals, 7.5% shooting
• Dylan Cozens: 1.00 xG/60, 13G 15A, 1 HD goals, 9.5% shooting

Zucker drives Buffalo's volume (1.07 xG/60) and has been ruthless in tight spaces (6 HD goals, 15.1% shooting). Doan matches the pace (15 goals) but converts at a tighter rate (11.5%). On Ottawa's side, Brady Tkachuk remains the engine — the highest underlying shot quality (1.19 xG/60) combined with elite point production (11G 20A) makes him the primary scoring threat. Cozens provides secondary volume at parity with Zucker's generation.

Buffalo depends on containing Tkachuk and sustaining Zucker's 15.1% finishing rate. Ottawa's task is simpler: maintain its underlying play advantage. The model sees this edge as durable, not a variance play — and PDO regression tilts probability further toward the Senators.