The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Canadiens edged the Rangers 3-2, but their dominance in underlying metrics was far greater than the scoreboard suggests. Montreal controlled 62% of 5v5 expected goals (4.44–2.78), a gap nearly triple their one-goal victory margin.
The Rangers generated volume without threat. Despite holding 49% of shot attempts (25–24), they created inferior chances: 0.050 xG per shot versus Montreal's 0.099. On high-danger opportunities, the gap widened further—Montreal six, New York two.
Yet Montreal couldn't convert premium chances into goals, going 0 for 6 on high-danger looks while underperforming their xG by 1.44 goals. I. Shesterkin was perfect on those chances, stopping all six high-danger shots and posting 1.44 above expected, a performance that kept the Rangers in a game they were otherwise thoroughly outplayed in.
Where Montreal overcame its finishing woes was on the rush. Three goals on 27 rush chances represented a lethal efficiency that offset their wastefulness in the slot. That was the game's deciding factor.
J. Fowler gave Montreal a reliable net, posting a 0.917 save percentage and 0.78 above expected. The Rangers pressed the issue with active rebound work—four opportunities generated—but converted none.
Cole Caufield's wrist shot from the high slot at 14:55 of the third punctuated Montreal's domination, the moment that settled a match already decided by underlying play.
The narrative is plain: Montreal's 62% xG share understates their control. They crushed New York on chance quality and volume, forced Shesterkin into a near-perfect performance, and still left multiple goals unconverted. This was not a close game played through the lens of shot quality—it was a domination interrupted only by erratic finishing.