The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
L. Ullmark's elite night—1.63 goals saved above expected—reveals why Ottawa's 5-1 win outpaced the underlying battle. The Senators controlled 63% of expected goals (4.42–2.63). But Ullmark's 0.957 SV% (22/23) combined with Florida's 1.63-goal underperformance created a two-part gap that inflated the margin. In hockey, that's how variance converts competitive into decisive.
Fabian Zetterlund's wrist shot from the high slot (17:02 of the third) was the turning point—when Ottawa's quality edge became inescapable.
The rest followed the underlying advantage. Ottawa generated 10 high-danger chances to Florida's 3. The rush game was lethal (3 goals on 23 chances). J. Sanderson (2 assists, 22:22), F. Zetterlund (2 goals, 11:48), and A. Zub (1 goal, 22:32) embodied the depth of Ottawa's control.
S. Bobrovsky's 21/25 night (0.840 SV%) doesn't indict his performance. On high-danger shots, he was solid (90% SV on 10). The problem was volume and placement—when facing 25 shots tilted toward quality ice, even sharp goaltending surrenders goals in volume. Florida's underlying structure held; the gap came from execution on both ends.
