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Motion-blurred skater in a Ottawa Senators sweater
← Sat, Apr 11 · the slate
Breakdown · OTT at NYI

Senators shut out the Islanders, 3-0

FinalSat, Apr 11
OTTOttawa Senators3NYINew York Islanders0
The verdict · stolen

The Senators stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.55–3.62 and won anyway.

OTT 3 · NYI 0
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:12 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Senators won 3-0 despite being thoroughly outshot in expected goals: 2.55 to 3.62. This was a heist.

The Islanders controlled 59% of the xG at 5v5, took 23 shot attempts on goal to Ottawa's 16, and generated eight high-danger chances to the Senators' two. None of this mattered. L. Ullmark stopped all 23 shots he faced—a perfect 1.000 SV%—and saved 3.62 goals above what the xG model predicted. The Islanders underperformed their expected goals by 3.62, unable to convert a single high-danger chance (0 for 8).

I. Sorokin kept New York in the game (13/15 saves, 0.867 SV%), but the problem wasn't goaltending. It was Ottawa's efficiency.

The Senators were lethal on the rush, scoring two goals on just 15 such chances. When play tightened, the Islanders generated four rebound opportunities but capitalized on zero. Ottawa created three and finished one.

Michael Amadio scored on a wrist shot from the doorstep at 17:29 of the third period, putting the game away. In a matchup where New York controlled play at even strength, every marginal advantage broke Ottawa's way.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 11
OTT
3
NYI
0

Senators shut out the Islanders, 3-0

Chances 2.5 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Islanders deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
OTT
2.55
NYI
3.62
41% of the chances59%

The board read OTT 3, NYI 0. The chances read OTT 2.5, NYI 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
OTT
+0.5
goals above expected
OTT2.55 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
NYI3.62 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Islanders left 3.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 13:06OTTR. GreigSH1–0
  2. P3 12:36OTTJ. SandersonPP2–0
  3. P3 17:29OTTM. AmadioEN3–0
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
OTT
27 shots
3
Final
66 shots
NYI
39 shots
0
OTT attackNYI attack
OTT NYI Goal
27
shots · 3 in
39
shots · 0 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
OTTNYI
1 / 2
1.04 xG
High danger
0 / 8
1.74 xG
1 / 7
1.05 xG
Medium
0 / 12
1.40 xG
1 / 31
0.46 xG
Low
0 / 35
0.48 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 8 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
L. Ullmark
+3.6
OTT · 23/23
B
I. Sorokin
+0.6
NYI · 13/15
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Senators shut out the Islanders, 3-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 5–8
  1. 13:06OTTR. Greigshorthanded(M. Amadio)1–0
2ndshots 4–7no goals
    3rdshots 7–8
    1. 12:36OTTJ. Sandersonpower play(D. Cozens, T. Stützle)2–0
    2. 17:29OTTM. Amadioempty net(S. Pinto, R. Greig)3–0

    score reads OTT–NYI

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.55
    OTT chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.5
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.075
    OTT puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    42.1%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.55Expected goals3.62
    NYI 59% of the chance quality
    16Shots on goal23
    2High-danger chances8
    40All attempts (Corsi)55
    Adjusted for score: OTT 39% · NYI 61%
    Faceoffs · NYI won85%off29%neu33%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    OTT1 / 2 · 1.04 xG
    NYI0 / 8 · 1.74 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    OTT1 / 7 · 1.05 xG
    NYI0 / 12 · 1.40 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    OTT1 / 31 · 0.46 xG
    NYI0 / 35 · 0.48 xG

    NYI went 0-for-8 from high danger on 1.74 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    OTT
    3 G · 2.55 xG · +0.5
    NYI
    0 G · 3.62 xG · -3.6
    01234

    OTT finished +0.5 against expected, NYI -3.6.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    OTT
    WRIST2/15
    SLAP0/5
    BACKHAND1/3
    TIP IN0/2
    SNAP0/1
    BAT0/1
    OTHER0/13
    NYI
    WRIST0/21
    SLAP0/6
    BACKHAND0/4
    TIP IN0/4
    SNAP0/3
    BAT0/1
    OTHER0/16
    OTT
    NYI
    Off the rush
    2 G on 15
    2.05 xG
    0 G on 26
    2.58 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 3
    0.36 xG
    0 G on 4
    0.71 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: OTT went 2-for-15, NYI 0-for-21. OTT scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    L. Ullmark
    OTT · 23/23 · 1.000
    +3.6
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/81.7+1.7
    Medium0/121.4+1.4
    Low0/350.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    I. Sorokin
    NYI · 13/15 · .867
    +0.6
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/21.0+0.0
    Medium1/71.1+0.1
    Low1/310.5-0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    66 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    OTT
    27 shots
    3
    Final
    66 shots
    NYI
    39 shots
    0
    OTT attackNYI attack
    OTT NYI Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — OTT left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    R. Greig
    #71 · C · OTT
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 22:36 on ice · +1
    M. Amadio
    #22 · R · OTT
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 18:52 on ice · +2
    J. Sanderson
    #85 · D · OTT
    1 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 27:38 on ice · +2
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Apr 11
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:21 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The models can't pick this game. Ottawa projects at 2.7 goals to New York's 2.4, giving the Senators 55% win probability—essentially a toss-up.

    Ottawa owns the underlying play. The Senators generate 56.0% of expected goals at 5v5, compared to the Islanders' 48.0%, and control shot volume at 53.0% Corsi. This is a territorial mismatch: Ottawa should spend more time in the offensive zone. The Senators are 6-3-1 over their last 10 games, while the Islanders sit at -8 goal differential in the same stretch—a gap that suggests New York's defense has been breaking down, not just absorbing variance.

    The season-long consistency matters. Both teams sport a 0.993 PDO, meaning neither can claim to be over- or underperforming their underlying numbers. Ottawa's Corsi and xG edges aren't noise—they're sustained.

    Where does the Islanders' path live? In individual performances and variance. Anders Lee (1.20 xG/60, 9 goals, 20 assists, 2 high-danger goals) generates chances at a rate barely lower than Brady Tkachuk (1.19 xG/60, 11 goals, 20 assists, 2 high-danger goals), and at 6.4% shooting, Lee has room to regress upward. Bo Horvat has quietly put up 18 goals with a 12.8% shooting percentage despite logging only 0.87 xG/60—efficiency that could carry into tonight.

    Ottawa's advantage flows through the depth chart. Dylan Cozens (1.00 xG/60, 13 goals, 15 assists, 1 high-danger goal) operates at a 9.5% shooting percentage, suggesting sustainable production. Tkachuk carries Ottawa's offensive load at 7.5% shooting; with higher volume, he's the likely difference-maker if play tightens.

    The defensive weak links offer asymmetric risk. Nick Jensen anchors Ottawa's defense, while Alexander Romanov covers that role for New York. Romanov's likely assignment—either Tkachuk or Cozens—is where the matchup tilts. If either defender has an off night, the goal differential swings sharply.

    Ottawa's territorial advantage should produce more quality opportunities. The Islanders can win if Romanov contains Tkachuk and Cozens, and if Lee and Horvat maintain their shooting efficiency. The 55% projection captures this precisely: Ottawa is favored, but it's genuinely a flip.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    OTT 55%
    55%
    OTT
    Model favorite
    55%
    45%
    OTT50NYI

    OTT by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score OTT 2.7–2.4 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    OTT← edge
    edge →NYI
    56.0%48.0%
    53.0%49.0%
    2.662.48
    2.122.69
    2.181.78
    1.991.94
    0.9930.993

    OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.993) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    OTT
    6-3-1
    +7 GD · 2d rest
    NYI
    4-6-0
    -8 GD · 2d rest
    0.993
    OTT PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.993
    NYI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
    • The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Things to watch
    • The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
    • The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • The Senators are the hotter team by points pace (6-3-1 in their last 10).
    • The Islanders are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    OTT
    Expected in goal
    L. Ullmark
    2 days rest.957 last start
    Backup Linus Ullmark · -12.8 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    NYI
    Expected in goal
    I. Sorokin
    2 days rest.813 last start
    Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    OTT
    Brady Tkachuk11G 20A
    1.19 xG/60 · 2 HD · 7.5% sh
    Dylan Cozens13G 15A
    1.00 xG/60 · 1 HD · 9.5% sh
    NYI
    Anders Lee9G 20A
    1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
    Bo Horvat18G 10A
    0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page