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Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater
← Sat, Apr 11 · the slate
Breakdown · CBJ at MTL

Blue Jackets run the Canadiens off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSat, Apr 11
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets5MTLMontreal Canadiens2
The verdict · earned

The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CBJ 5 · MTL 2
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:47 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal held 40% of shot attempts but fell 5-2. The gap between shot share and goal share exposed just how thoroughly Columbus dominated underlying play.

The Blue Jackets controlled 61% of 5v5 expected goals (4.69–3.01). Their offensive pressure was relentless: they created 10 high-danger chances to Montreal's 2. Columbus converted 4 of 31 rush chances while Montreal scored 2 on 25 attempts.

J. Greaves (CBJ) stopped 1.01 goals above expected. J. Dobes (MTL) posted a 0.848 save percentage.

C. Coyle's snap shot from the doorstep (P3, 09:59) broke the game open. He finished with 2 goals in 21:53. K. Marchenko added 1G, 1A in 17:12. A. Fantilli contributed 2A in 15:41. Montreal underperformed their xG by 1.01 goals.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 11
CBJ
5
MTL
2

Blue Jackets run the Canadiens off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 4.7 – 3.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Blue Jackets earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
4.69
MTL
3.01
61% of the chances39%

The board read CBJ 5, MTL 2. The chances read CBJ 4.7, MTL 3.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CBJ
+0.3
goals above expected
CBJ4.69 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
MTL3.01 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:13CBJB. Jenner1–0
  2. P1 05:42CBJC. Coyle2–0
  3. P1 11:48MTLJ. Anderson2–1
  4. P2 01:24CBJK. Marchenko3–1
  5. P2 10:36CBJS. Monahan4–1
  6. P3 03:58MTLC. CaufieldPP4–2
  7. P3 09:59CBJC. CoylePP5–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
49 shots
5
Final
85 shots
MTL
36 shots
2
CBJ attackMTL attack
CBJ MTL Goal
49
shots · 5 in
36
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJMTL
2 / 10
2.35 xG
High danger
0 / 2
0.47 xG
3 / 17
1.78 xG
Medium
2 / 18
2.04 xG
0 / 42
0.56 xG
Low
0 / 28
0.50 xG

The Blue Jackets buried 2 of 10 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Greaves
+1.0
CBJ · 20/22
D
J. Dobes
−0.3
MTL · 28/33
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets run the Canadiens off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 12–8
  1. 01:13CBJB. Jenner(Z. Werenski, D. Heinen)1–0
  2. 05:42CBJC. Coyle(J. Christiansen, M. Marchment)2–0
  3. 11:48MTLJ. Anderson(J. Evans, L. Hutson)2–1
2ndshots 14–5
  1. 01:24CBJK. Marchenko(I. Provorov, A. Fantilli)3–1
  2. 10:36CBJS. Monahan(K. Johnson)4–1
3rdshots 7–9
  1. 03:58MTLC. Caufieldpower play(N. Suzuki, J. Slafkovský)4–2
  2. 09:59CBJC. Coylepower play(K. Marchenko, A. Fantilli)5–2

score reads CBJ–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.69
CBJ chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.3
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.031
CBJ puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
59.0%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.69Expected goals3.01
CBJ 61% of the chance quality
33Shots on goal22
10High-danger chances2
69All attempts (Corsi)48
Adjusted for score: CBJ 53% · MTL 48%
Faceoffs · MTL won47%off50%neu37%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CBJ2 / 10 · 2.35 xG
MTL0 / 2 · 0.47 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CBJ3 / 17 · 1.78 xG
MTL2 / 18 · 2.04 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CBJ0 / 42 · 0.56 xG
MTL0 / 28 · 0.50 xG

CBJ went 3-for-17 from medium danger on 1.78 expected goals — 1.2 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CBJ
5 G · 4.69 xG · +0.3
MTL
2 G · 3.01 xG · -1.0
0123456

CBJ finished +0.3 against expected, MTL -1.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CBJ
SNAP4/33
TIP IN0/6
SLAP0/6
BACKHAND1/2
WRIST0/2
OTHER0/20
MTL
SNAP2/24
TIP IN0/5
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND0/3
WRIST0/0
OTHER0/12
CBJ
MTL
Off the rush
4 G on 31
3.39 xG
2 G on 25
2.19 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 4
0.60 xG
0 G on 2
0.14 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: CBJ went 4-for-33, MTL 2-for-24. CBJ scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Greaves
CBJ · 20/22 · .909
+1.0
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.5+0.5
Medium2/182.0+0.0
Low0/280.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Dobes
MTL · 28/33 · .848
-0.3
saved above expected
D
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/102.4+0.3
Medium3/171.8-1.2
Low0/420.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

85 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CBJ
49 shots
5
Final
85 shots
MTL
36 shots
2
CBJ attackMTL attack
CBJ MTL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
C. Coyle
#3 · C · CBJ
2 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 21:53 on ice · +1
K. Marchenko
#86 · R · CBJ
1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 17:12 on ice · +1
A. Fantilli
#19 · C · CBJ
0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 15:41 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Apr 11
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:22 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6–2.5 Blue Jackets victory with Columbus at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Montreal arrives hotter: 9–1–0 in their last 10 games. Columbus is underwater at -15 goal differential over the same stretch. Yet the underlying metrics favor Columbus. At 5v5, the Jackets control 52.0% expected goal share to Montreal's 48.0%, and 51.0% Corsi to 49.0%. Montreal's PDO of 1.018 explains the disconnect—they're running hot, and regression should follow.

Boone Jenner leads Columbus's attack with 0.98 expected goals per 60 minutes and 11 goals on 9.6% shooting. Mathieu Olivier (0.89 xG/60, 12 goals) complements him, though he hasn't played in 13 days. Cole Caufield powers Montreal with 33 goals at 0.97 xG/60 and 20.0% shooting, backed by Oliver Kapanen (19 goals, 0.83 xG/60, 17.8% shooting).

The outcome turns on finishes. Columbus dominates possession and shot quality but lacks rebound production. Conor Garland represents the Jackets' defensive soft spot; Mike Matheson is Montreal's. Neither team's advantage is large enough to overcome the other's strengths.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 51%
51%
CBJ
Model favorite
51%
49%
CBJ50MTL

CBJ by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CBJ 2.6–2.5 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ← edge
edge →MTL
52.0%48.0%
51.0%49.0%
2.632.41
2.432.62
2.122.24
1.981.96
1.0031.018

CBJ holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 1.018) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CBJ
2-7-1
-15 GD · 2d rest
MTL
9-1-0
+13 GD · 2d rest
1.003
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Canadiens are the hotter team by points pace (9-1-0 in their last 10).
  • The Blue Jackets are underwater at -15 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CBJ
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
2 days rest.826 last start
Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL
Expected in goal
J. Dobes
2 days rest.944 last start
Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ
Boone Jenner11G 21A
0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
MTL
Cole Caufield33G 16A
0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
Oliver Kapanen19G 12A
0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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