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← Sat, Apr 11 · the slate
Breakdown · VGK at COL

Golden Knights edge the Avalanche in overtime

Final / OTSat, Apr 11
VGKVegas Golden Knights3COLColorado Avalanche2
The verdict · coin flip

The Golden Knights won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

VGK 3 · COL 2
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:26 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado controlled this game but lost anyway. The Avalanche held 52% of shot attempts and matched Vegas in expected goals (4.36 to 4.35), yet underperformed their xG by 2.36 goals while Vegas underperformed by just 1.35—a chasm that explained the OT result.

The numbers crystallized in high-danger chances: Colorado generated seven, Vegas six. Both teams converted zero. That tie should have favored Colorado's volume, but J. Eichel punished it at 01:19 of overtime.

The goaltending gap was decisive. C. Hart stopped 30 of 32 shots (0.938 SV%, +2.36 vs expected) and was flawless on high-danger opportunities—7-for-7 when the outcome hung in the balance. M. Blackwood made 26 of 29 (0.897 SV%, +1.35), but even his above-expected performance couldn't overcome Colorado's wastefulness. The Avalanche couldn't convert, and Vegas only needed to convert once.

Colorado generated the chances and controlled the game. They just didn't finish. In a contest where both sides squandered high-danger looks, execution in overtime is everything.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Apr 11
VGK
3
COL
2

Golden Knights edge the Avalanche in overtime

Chances 4.3 – 4.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Golden Knights took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
4.35
COL
4.36
50% of the chances50%

The board read VGK 3, COL 2. The chances read VGK 4.3, COL 4.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
VGK
−1.4
goals above expected
VGK4.35 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
COL4.36 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Avalanche left 2.4 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 09:17COLD. ToewsPP0–1
  2. P1 13:47VGKM. StonePP1–1
  3. P2 02:09VGKP. Dorofeyev2–1
  4. P2 10:56COLN. Blankenburg2–2
  5. OT 01:19VGKJ. Eichel3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
53 shots
3
Final
106 shots
COL
53 shots
2
VGK attackCOL attack
VGK COL Goal
53
shots · 3 in
53
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKCOL
0 / 6
1.52 xG
High danger
0 / 7
1.71 xG
3 / 20
2.18 xG
Medium
0 / 20
2.12 xG
0 / 47
0.64 xG
Low
2 / 38
0.53 xG

The Avalanche went 0 for 7 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
C. Hart
+2.4
VGK · 30/32
B+
M. Blackwood
+1.4
COL · 26/29
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Golden Knights edge the Avalanche in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–15
  1. 09:17COLD. Toewspower play(B. Nelson, M. Necas)0–1
  2. 13:47VGKM. Stonepower play(T. Hertl, M. Marner)1–1
2ndshots 10–11
  1. 02:09VGKP. Dorofeyev(I. Barbashev, K. Korczak)2–1
  2. 10:56COLN. Blankenburg(N. Roy)2–2
3rdshots 11–6no goals
    OTshots 1–0
    1. 01:19VGKJ. Eichel3–2

    score reads VGK–COL

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.35
    VGK chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −1.4
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.010
    VGK puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    52.9%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.35Expected goals4.36
    COL 50% of the chance quality
    29Shots on goal32
    6High-danger chances7
    73All attempts (Corsi)65
    Adjusted for score: VGK 53% · COL 47%
    Faceoffs · COL won35%off63%neu42%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    VGK0 / 6 · 1.52 xG
    COL0 / 7 · 1.71 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    VGK3 / 20 · 2.18 xG
    COL0 / 20 · 2.12 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    VGK0 / 47 · 0.64 xG
    COL2 / 38 · 0.53 xG

    COL went 0-for-20 from medium danger on 2.12 expected goals — 2.1 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    VGK
    3 G · 4.35 xG · -1.4
    COL
    2 G · 4.36 xG · -2.4
    012345

    VGK finished -1.4 against expected, COL -2.4.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    VGK
    WRIST1/32
    SNAP1/8
    SLAP0/3
    TIP IN0/6
    BACKHAND1/4
    DEFLECTED0/0
    OTHER0/20
    COL
    WRIST2/27
    SNAP0/12
    SLAP0/7
    TIP IN0/2
    BACKHAND0/4
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/12
    VGK
    COL
    Off the rush
    1 G on 33
    2.82 xG
    0 G on 33
    3.66 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 7
    0.93 xG
    0 G on 3
    0.43 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 1-for-32, COL 2-for-27.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    C. Hart
    VGK · 30/32 · .938
    +2.4
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/71.7+1.7
    Medium0/202.1+2.1
    Low2/380.5-1.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    M. Blackwood
    COL · 26/29 · .897
    +1.4
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/61.5+1.5
    Medium3/202.2-0.8
    Low0/470.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    106 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    VGK
    53 shots
    3
    Final
    106 shots
    COL
    53 shots
    2
    VGK attackCOL attack
    VGK COL Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, COL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    D. Toews
    #7 · D · COL
    1 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 26:54 on ice · -1
    M. Necas
    #88 · C · COL
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:51 on ice · -1
    J. Eichel
    #9 · C · VGK
    1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 20:44 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Apr 11
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:25 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.4 - 2.7 Colorado victory, giving the Avalanche 55% win probability. The edge is real but modest, rooted in process: Colorado's territorial control is genuine, but masked by unsustainable offensive efficiency that will regress.

    The Avalanche dominate possession. They control 57.0% of Corsi and out-expected-goal Vegas 57.0% to 54.0%—a 3-5 point gap in pure driving play. Expect the puck to camp in the Golden Knights' end.

    The PDO story is the hedge. Colorado sits at 1.021, overperforming their actual chances through unsustainable shooting and save percentages. Vegas sits at 0.983, running cold and due to regress upward. The Avalanche can't count on repeating their current offensive output; the Golden Knights have margin to improve. Variance typically filters in over multiple games, but a single contest can flip the narrative.

    Both teams navigate goaltending uncertainty. M. Blackwood and A. Hill are both on back-to-backs, raising the possibility of backup starts or sputtering starters.

    Colorado's offensive load runs through Artturi Lehkonen, whose 1.11 xG/60 and 18 goals with 22 assists makes him the primary engine. His 6 hard-chance goals represent conversion well above league average. Ross Colton (1.10 xG/60, 7G 15A) generates similar chances but converts at only 4.9%—leaving room for positive regression.

    Brandon Saad is marked inactive for Vegas. Tomas Hertl fills the offensive role at 0.88 xG/60 with 5 goals, 17 assists, operating at 4.3% shooting. Both teams struggle to score from high-danger chances despite decent volume—a coaching imprint or personnel restraint. Rasmus Andersson anchors Vegas' defense as the weak link; Nazem Kadri does the same for Colorado.

    The Avalanche lean is defensible. Their territorial edge is durable, and the model prices in only partial PDO regression. But variance cuts both ways: Colorado's overperforming, Vegas' underperforming, and one game is enough to flip the script. Expect both teams to trend closer to true talent by the final buzzer.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    COL 55%
    55%
    COL
    Model favorite
    45%
    55%
    VGK50COL

    COL by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 2.4–2.7 COL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK← edge
    edge →COL
    54.0%57.0%
    52.0%57.0%
    2.523.03
    2.112.30
    2.122.63
    2.101.56
    0.9831.021

    COL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.021) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    VGK
    5-2-3
    +2 GD · 1d rest
    COL
    7-3-0
    +14 GD · 1d rest
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.021
    COL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • M. Blackwood is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • A. Hill is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    VGK
    Expected in goal
    A. Hill
    back-to-back.909 last start
    Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    COL
    Expected in goal
    M. Blackwood
    back-to-back.966 last start
    Backup Scott Wedgewood · +23.1 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    COL
    Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A
    1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh
    Ross Colton7G 15A
    1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page