The Canucks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.17–3.62 and won anyway.
Anaheim dominated the underlying metrics but left with nothing. The Ducks generated 3.62 expected goals to Vancouver's 3.17 — a 53–47 split that suggested they should've won — yet lost 4-3 in overtime. The Canucks converted at an unsustainable rate, outperforming their xG by 0.83 goals. Anaheim went the other way, underperforming by the same 0.83.
Vancouver did possess one real edge: efficiency on the rush, scoring 2 goals on 22 chances. Anaheim created 3 rebound opportunities but converted only 1. The Canucks' power play was dominant—2 PPG on 9 PP shots (1.13 xG)—a lethal weapon.
Anaheim held 51% of shot attempts (27–26 on goal) but couldn't translate volume into a win. High-danger chances split 6–6, dead even. N. Tolopilo stopped 24 of 27 for Vancouver, posting a 0.889 SV% that beat his expected by 0.62 goals. L. Dostal faced 26 shots and made 22 saves at a 0.846 SV%, running 0.83 below projection.
The turning point came at 4:50 of overtime when M. Rossi fired a slap shot from the top of the circles past Dostal. Rossi (1G, 1A in 18:49) and B. Boeser (1G, 1A in 23:08) drove the Canucks' attack, with C. Kreider picking up 2 assists for Anaheim despite the loss.
Variance claimed another victim. The Ducks built a convincing case for the win on paper and executed well in stretches — but in the end, the scoreboard doesn't grade on process.
