The Panthers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.88–2.48 and won anyway.
Florida won 3–2 despite controlling just 39% of expected goals; the Rangers held 61% xG and still lost. The gap was enormous, and it came down to elite goaltending and a Rangers offense that misfired.
The Rangers dominated. They attempted 27 shots to Florida's 16 and generated higher-quality looks: 0.068 xG per shot versus Florida's 0.051. At 5v5, they controlled 61% of expected goals. Possession was irrelevant.
D. Tarasov flipped the result. He stopped 25 of 27 shots and posted 0.926 SV%, earning 1.88 goals above expected—a performance so dominant it erased Florida's deficit in every underlying metric. J. Quick saved 13 of 16 (0.812 SV%) but underperformed by 0.52, ceding the softer ones.
The turning point came at 18:10 of the third when Cole Reinhardt snapped a high-slot shot past Quick, crystallizing Florida's entire approach: convert on transitions, crash for rebounds, escape. Florida buried two goals on 15 rush chances and capitalized on one of five rebound opportunities. New York created six rebounds but finished only one, a fatal gap.
The Rangers underperformed their xG by 1.88 goals, wasting high-danger looks while Tarasov stood immovable. Florida's victory wasn't dominance—the Rangers were superior in nearly every measure—but ruthless execution paired with stellar goaltending. The Panthers took their chances and stole the result.
