Motion-blurred skater in a gold and black sweater

Breakdown · NJD at BOS

Bruins shut out the Devils, 4-0

FinalTue, Apr 14

The verdict · earned

The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NJD 0 · BOS 4

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:38 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Bruins didn't just beat the Devils — they made every advantage count. Boston's shots carried lethal intent at 0.058 xG per attempt versus New Jersey's 0.032. The Bruins walloped the Devils on the strength of that edge.

The numbers explain the shutout. Boston controlled 59% of 5v5 expected goals (2.97–2.04), held 55% of shot attempts (26–21), and dominated high-danger chances 5–2. But the real killer was execution: the Bruins buried three of 28 rush chances and converted one rebound opportunity. New Jersey created five rebound chances and converted zero.

Goaltending sealed it. J. Swayman faced 21 shots and stopped all of them, outperforming by 2.04 goals relative to expected. N. Daws faced 26 and gave up 1.03 more than expected. That disparity — Swayman overperforming while Daws underperformed — made a 4-0 scoreline feel inevitable.

Viktor Arvidsson's snap shot from the doorstep (19:52, first period) opened the scoring early and set Boston's tone. The Bruins never looked back.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Apr 14

NJD

BOS

Bruins shut out the Devils, 4-0

Chances 2.0 – 3.0Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Bruins earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NJD

2.04

BOS

2.97

41% of the chances59%

The board read NJD 0, BOS 4. The chances read NJD 2.0, BOS 3.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BOS

+1.0

goals above expected

BOS2.97 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

NJD2.04 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Devils left 2.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 00:53BOSM. Geekie0–1
P1 06:14BOSM. Kastelic0–2
P1 17:42BOSM. Kastelic0–3
P1 19:52BOSV. Arvidsson0–4

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NJD

40 shots

Final

81 shots

BOS

41 shots

NJD BOS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 0 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NJDBOS

0 / 2

0.40 xG

High danger

1 / 5

1.08 xG

0 / 9

1.00 xG

Medium

3 / 12

1.23 xG

0 / 52

0.63 xG

Low

0 / 34

0.67 xG

High-danger looks: NJD 0 of 2, BOS 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Swayman

+2.0

BOS · 21/21

D-

N. Daws

−1.0

NJD · 22/26

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Bruins shut out the Devils, 4-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–12

00:53BOSM. Geekie(D. Pastrnak, F. Minten)0–1
06:14BOSM. Kastelic(T. Jeannot, S. Kuraly)0–2
17:42BOSM. Kastelic(S. Kuraly, M. Lohrei)0–3
19:52BOSV. Arvidsson(P. Zacha, H. Lindholm)0–4

2ndshots 5–9no goals

3rdshots 6–5no goals

score reads NJD–BOS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.97

BOS chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.0

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.078

BOS puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

44.7%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.04Expected goals2.97

BOS 59% of the chance quality

21Shots on goal26

2High-danger chances5

63All attempts (Corsi)51

Adjusted for score: NJD 62% · BOS 38%

Faceoffs · BOS won44%off72%neu75%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NJD0 / 2 · 0.40 xG

BOS1 / 5 · 1.08 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NJD0 / 9 · 1.00 xG

BOS3 / 12 · 1.23 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NJD0 / 52 · 0.63 xG

BOS0 / 34 · 0.67 xG

BOS went 3-for-12 from medium danger on 1.23 expected goals — 1.8 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NJD

0 G · 2.04 xG · -2.0

BOS

4 G · 2.97 xG · +1.0

012345

NJD finished -2.0 against expected, BOS +1.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NJD

WRIST0/23

SNAP0/1

SLAP0/6

TIP IN0/4

BACKHAND0/6

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/23

BOS

WRIST2/3

SNAP2/25

SLAP0/8

TIP IN0/3

BACKHAND0/0

WRAP AROUND0/2

OTHER0/10

NJD

BOS

Off the rush

0 G on 21

1.27 xG

3 G on 28

2.22 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 5

0.36 xG

1 G on 4

0.53 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NJD went 0-for-23, BOS 2-for-3. BOS scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

N. Daws

NJD · 22/26 · .846

-1.0

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.1+0.1

Medium3/121.2-1.8

Low0/340.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Swayman

BOS · 21/21 · 1.000

+2.0

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.4+0.4

Medium0/91.0+1.0

Low0/520.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

81 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NJD

40 shots

Final

81 shots

BOS

41 shots

NJD BOS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

S. Kuraly

#52 · C · BOS

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 17:53 on ice · +2

M. Kastelic

#47 · C · BOS

2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 13:47 on ice · +2

M. Lohrei

#6 · D · BOS

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 21:53 on ice · +4

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Apr 14

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:37 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects 2.6-2.6 with the Bruins at 50% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

New Jersey controls 50.0% of expected goals at 5v5 against Boston's 47.0%. That edge should translate to wins over time. But Boston is running hot with a 1.023 PDO—finishing chances at rates regression will punish—while New Jersey sits at 0.971, running cold enough to collect positive regression when it matters. Tonight, that structural luck-flip could matter as much as the play itself.

Timo Meier leads New Jersey at 1.08 expected goals per 60 minutes with 13 goals and 15 assists. His 6.7% shooting rate leaves room for variance, but the underlying volume is undeniable. Jack Hughes, the centerpiece, sits at 0.88 xG/60 with 18 goals and 17 assists—his 11.5% shooting is elite and sustainable, the mark of a player finishing at a rate most can't reach. Hughes generates fewer chances than Meier but punishes them at a higher frequency.

Viktor Arvidsson anchors Boston at 1.04 xG/60, nearly matching Meier, with 18 goals and 24 assists. He's converting at 13.0%, a rate that keeps a win-now team competitive when luck normalizes. Tanner Jeannot operates as secondary production, generating 0.75 xG/60 with 6 goals and 14 assists at 8.3% shooting—exactly the kind of depth Boston needs to weather regression.

Matchup quality matters. Boston's Elias Lindholm has shown defensive vulnerability; when Meier hunts, he'll hunt for Lindholm. New Jersey's Johnathan Kovacevic is the corresponding weak link, and Arvidsson's volume and finishing rate make him the sort of forward who punishes breakdowns.

New Jersey owns the underlying advantage: 51.0% Corsi and 50.0% xG mean the Devils are simply playing better hockey. Boston's only edge is luck—a 1.023 PDO against New Jersey's 0.971—which the model factors in as a coin flip. One team regresses, one improves. Tonight, it could cut either way.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

BOS 50%

50%

BOS

Model favorite

50%

NJD50BOS

BOS by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 2.6–2.6 BOS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD← edge

edge →BOS

50.0%47.0%

51.0%49.0%

2.452.39

2.502.67

1.662.22

2.231.82

0.9711.023

NJD holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 1.023) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NJD

5-4-1

-2 GD · 2d rest

BOS

5-3-2

+3 GD · 2d rest

0.971

NJD PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.023

BOS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Devils own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.

Regression watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Devils own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NJD

Expected in goal

N. Daws

2 days rest.900 last start

Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

BOS

Expected in goal

J. Korpisalo

2 days rest.943 last start

Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD

Timo Meier13G 15A

1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh

Jack Hughes18G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh

BOS

Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A

1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Tanner Jeannot6G 14A

0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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