Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater

Breakdown · SEA at VGK

Golden Knights run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalWed, Apr 15

SEASeattle Kraken1 VGKVegas Golden Knights4

The verdict · earned

The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

SEA 1 · VGK 4

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:57 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

High-danger chances were tied at 2–2, yet the Golden Knights won 4–1 — the extra goals came from places the Kraken defense should have cleaned up.

The xG told the real story: Vegas controlled 67% of five-on-five expected goals (3.29–1.62), a decisive edge that mirrored the final scoreline. The Golden Knights didn't just out-shoot Seattle (26–23 on goal, 53% of attempts) — they created far more dangerous looks. Vegas generated 0.051 xG per shot versus Seattle's 0.039, pure quality over volume.

But the scoreboard exaggerated Vegas's dominance at the highest level. Two Golden Knights goals came from low-danger areas — the kind opposing goalies are supposed to stop. Two more came off the rush (29 rush attempts yielded 2 goals), where Seattle's structure broke down rather than Vegas executing a systematic pattern.

C. Hart made this look easy, posting a 0.957 save percentage against 23 shots — 0.62 goals better than expected. N. Kokko's 0.846 mark represented a 0.71-goal shortfall, a troubling gap when you're already being out-chanced by that margin. Rebounding didn't decide it: Vegas created four rebound chances and converted one, Seattle created six and also converted one. The difference was ruthlessness — Vegas punished the looks it got.

Vegas overperformed its xG by 0.71 goals — not a small variance when 3.29 xG yielded 4 actual goals. That's execution meeting opportunity.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Apr 15

SEA

VGK

Golden Knights run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 1.6 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

SEA

1.62

VGK

3.29

33% of the chances67%

The board read SEA 1, VGK 4. The chances read SEA 1.6, VGK 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

VGK

+0.7

goals above expected

VGK3.29 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

SEA1.62 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 02:24SEAS. Wright1–0
P2 17:35VGKS. Theodore1–1
P3 01:23VGKM. Marner1–2
P3 12:01VGKR. Smith1–3
P3 16:36VGKR. SmithPP1–4

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

SEA

29 shots

Final

78 shots

VGK

49 shots

SEA VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 1 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

SEAVGK

1 / 2

0.47 xG

High danger

0 / 2

0.38 xG

0 / 5

0.59 xG

Medium

2 / 17

1.93 xG

0 / 34

0.56 xG

Low

2 / 45

0.98 xG

High-danger looks: SEA 1 of 2, VGK 0 of 2.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

C. Hart

+0.6

VGK · 22/23

N. Kokko

−0.7

SEA · 22/26

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Golden Knights run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 11–6no goals

2ndshots 8–8

02:24SEAS. Wright(J. Nyman, J. Oleksiak)1–0
17:35VGKS. Theodore(R. Smith, N. Dowd)1–1

3rdshots 4–12

01:23VGKM. Marner(B. McNabb, J. Eichel)1–2
12:01VGKR. Smith(R. Andersson, J. Eichel)1–3
16:36VGKR. Smithpower play(K. Korczak, T. Hertl)1–4

score reads SEA–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.29

VGK chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.7

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.038

VGK puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

61.0%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.62Expected goals3.29

VGK 67% of the chance quality

23Shots on goal26

2High-danger chances2

41All attempts (Corsi)64

Adjusted for score: SEA 39% · VGK 61%

Faceoffs · VGK won68%off47%neu46%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

SEA1 / 2 · 0.47 xG

VGK0 / 2 · 0.38 xG

Medium dangermid-range

SEA0 / 5 · 0.59 xG

VGK2 / 17 · 1.93 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

SEA0 / 34 · 0.56 xG

VGK2 / 45 · 0.98 xG

VGK went 2-for-45 from low danger on 0.98 expected goals — 1.0 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

SEA

1 G · 1.62 xG · -0.6

VGK

4 G · 3.29 xG · +0.7

012345

SEA finished -0.6 against expected, VGK +0.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

SEA

WRIST0/15

SNAP1/7

TIP IN0/1

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/3

OTHER0/12

VGK

WRIST2/26

SNAP1/9

TIP IN1/8

SLAP0/4

BACKHAND0/2

OTHER0/15

SEA

VGK

Off the rush

0 G on 14

0.83 xG

2 G on 29

2.06 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 6

0.69 xG

1 G on 4

0.63 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: SEA went 0-for-15, VGK 2-for-26. VGK scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

N. Kokko

SEA · 22/26 · .846

-0.7

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.4+0.4

Medium2/171.9-0.1

Low2/451.0-1.0

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Hart

VGK · 22/23 · .957

+0.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/20.5-0.5

Medium0/50.6+0.6

Low0/340.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

78 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

SEA

29 shots

Final

78 shots

VGK

49 shots

SEA VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — SEA left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

R. Smith

#19 · R · VGK

2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 13:10 on ice · +2

J. Eichel

#9 · C · VGK

0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 19:45 on ice · +3

R. Andersson

#4 · D · VGK

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:53 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Apr 15

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 11:55 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model has Vegas at 59% win probability in a projected 2.1–2.6 game—a meaningful edge that's grounded in the two-week form disparity and a deeper structural advantage that PDO regression could amplify.

Vegas is the hotter team by record, going 6–1–3 over their last ten. Seattle has deteriorated to minus-14 goal differential in the same span, a gap that forecasts poorly for the Kraken's chances.

The underlying play edges further toward Vegas. At 5v5, the Golden Knights own 54.0% expected goals against Seattle's 46.0%, and they drive territorial control at 52.0% Corsi% versus 45.0%. This isn't luck—it's systematic dominance in how both teams play the game.

But here's where the edge sharpens. Vegas's PDO of 0.983 signals they're running cold relative to their underlying performance. Positive regression is mathematized, not promised, yet the gap between play and results is the kind of mismatch models exploit. Seattle's PDO sits at 1.011—closer to neutral—which means they're not getting lucky; they're simply being outplayed.

The goaltending angle adds friction. Both C. Hart and N. Kokko are on back-to-backs, creating ambiguity around lineup deployment. If Seattle plays a backup, the model's edge widens. If Vegas does, it narrows. This is noise the model prices in but can't eliminate.

The individuals who matter most tell the same story. Shane Wright drives Seattle's offense at 0.77 expected goals per 60 minutes with 8 goals and 10 assists, anchored by 4 high-danger chances—his 10.4% shooting rate is sustainable. Berkly Catton complements him at 0.68 xG/60 with 6 goals and 8 assists. Vegas counters through depth: Brandon Saad operates at 0.91 xG/60 with only 3 goals (a 4.1% shoot rate that screams positive regression), and Tomas Hertl at 0.88 xG/60 has cashed 5 goals on 17 assists with just 1 high-danger goal, leaving room for offensive upside. Hertl's efficiency on volume is the kind of variance that resolves favorably.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 59%

59%

VGK

Model favorite

41%

59%

SEA50VGK

VGK by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score SEA 2.1–2.6 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

SEA← edge

edge →VGK

46.0%54.0%

45.0%52.0%

2.132.52

2.512.11

1.872.12

1.952.10

1.0110.983

VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.011 vs 0.983) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

SEA

3-6-1

-14 GD · 1d rest

VGK

6-1-3

+9 GD · 1d rest

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
C. Hart is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
N. Kokko is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Golden Knights are the hotter team by points pace (6-1-3 in their last 10).
The Kraken are underwater at -14 goal differential over their last 10.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

SEA

Expected in goal

N. Kokko

back-to-back.862 last start

Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

VGK

Expected in goal

C. Hart

back-to-back.913 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page