WARNINGUTA
M. Hrabal couldn't make the stop
M. Hrabal allowed 3 on 5 shots (0.400) — 2.31 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
The verdict · stolen
The Avalanche stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.64–2.35 and won anyway.
UTA 1 · COL 4
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 22, 10:47 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Colorado beat Utah 4-1, and the game split cleanly into two acts. Utah tied it in the second period, then the Avalanche took the third period and ran away with it, finishing the night with a highlight from T. Makar.
B. Hamilton opened the scoring for Colorado in the second period, set up by M. Necas. Utah answered before intermission when Y. Borikov tied it 1-1, assisted by G. Smith and A. Duda. That's how it stood heading into the third — and then Colorado took over. G. Brindley put the Avalanche back ahead early in the third, fed by N. Kadri, and B. Nelson made it 1-3 on the power play moments later off passes from A. Lehkonen and D. Toews. Makar sealed it with a wrist shot from the high slot, with 17:27 gone in the third, assisted by Brindley and T. Hughes — the goal that turned a manageable Colorado lead into a rout.
Here's the part the scoreboard hides: Utah controlled 61% of the expected goals at 5-on-5. Colorado won by three goals while getting comprehensively outplayed. This wasn't a statement win for the Avalanche — it was a heist. Colorado held only 42% of the shot attempts, was outshot 17-24, and lost the high-danger chance battle 2-3. By the underlying play, Utah was the better team on this ice.
So how does a team that loses the process win by three? Goaltending, mostly. I. Nabokov stopped 1.6 goals above what he should have on 16-of-17 shots, and M. Blackwood was perfect behind him — together Colorado's goaltending graded out as an A+, saving 2.64 goals above expected on the night. Utah got the opposite at the other end. M. Hrabal allowed 3 goals on just 5 shots before getting pulled, 2.31 goals worse than expected, and even with S. Cossa playing well in relief, Utah's goaltending finished as an F, 1.65 goals below expected. That gap alone is close to the margin of the final score.
Special teams tilted it further. B. Nelson's power-play goal was Colorado's only conversion in five tries — modest on its own, roughly matching the league-average conversion rate — but it landed. Utah, meanwhile, went 0-for-3 with the extra man despite generating real expected-goal value with the man advantage, and never cashed it in. A team that controls the run of play and comes up empty on the power play is leaving the door open, and Colorado walked through it.
None of this erases the deficit for Utah — expected goals don't appear on the scoreboard. But it does explain why this result is shakier for Colorado than a 4-1 final normally looks. The Avalanche were dangerous off the rush and got a monster night from their goaltending; they weren't the better team for long stretches of this one.