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Motion-blurred skater in a Winnipeg Jets sweater
← Mon, Sep 21 · the slate
Breakdown · COL at WPG · Preseason

S. Skinner stands tall as the Jets edge the Avalanche

FinalMon, Sep 21
COLColorado Avalanche1WPGWinnipeg Jets3
The verdict · coin flip

The Jets won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

COL 1 · WPG 3
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 28, 3:34 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Winnipeg beat Colorado 3-1, with S. Skinner turning aside 31 of 32 shots.

Colorado generated better chances yet couldn't finish, leaving Winnipeg's elite goaltending to decide the game. The Avalanche generated 4.11 expected goals while Winnipeg managed 3.96, yet Colorado scored only once. They underperformed their expected-goal total by 3.11.

S. Skinner saved 3.11 goals above what his workload should have allowed, while I. Nabokov let in 0.96 more than expected. Winnipeg was ruthless on the rush, converting 2 of 21 rush chances. J. Morrissey orchestrated the offense with two assists in 20:15, tying together G. Vilardi's opening goal off the rush at 18:55 of the first (a 10% expected-goal chance) and D. DeMelo's third-period goal from 52 feet (a 3% chance).

Colorado's only goal came from G. Merkulov at 14:34 of the third, a 1-foot wrist shot with a 51% expected-goal probability, one of the few high-danger looks the Avalanche didn't waste. By then, the game was decided.

The score says Winnipeg dominated. The underlying numbers say Colorado played better until the final variance tally, where goaltending determined everything.

Three Stars

  • J. Morrissey (WPG) — 2A
  • G. Vilardi (WPG) — 1G, 1A
  • B. Kulak (COL) — 1A

The goals

  • WPG 0–1, 18:55 of the first. G. Vilardi, snap shot from 33 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Wedgewood. Assists: I. Rosen, V. Namestnikov. S. Wedgewood was 1135 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 18 points.
  • WPG 0–2, 18:50 of the second. C. Perfetti, wrist shot from 8 feet, a 19% chance by the model (off the rush), past I. Nabokov. Assists: M. Scheifele, J. Morrissey. I. Nabokov was 457 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • WPG 0–3, 06:37 of the third. D. DeMelo, wrist shot from 52 feet, a 3% chance by the model, past I. Nabokov. Assists: G. Vilardi, J. Morrissey. I. Nabokov was 397 seconds into his shift for the defending side.
  • COL 1–3, 14:34 of the third. G. Merkulov, wrist shot from 1 feet, a 51% chance by the model, past S. Skinner. Assists: F. Lysell, B. Kulak. 5 seconds after a COL shot by F. Lysell.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 21
COL
1
WPG
3

S. Skinner stands tall as the Jets edge the Avalanche

Chances 4.1 – 4.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Jets took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
COL
4.11
WPG
3.96
51% of the chances49%

The board read COL 1, WPG 3. The chances read COL 4.1, WPG 4.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WPG
−1.0
goals above expected
WPG3.96 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
COL4.11 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Avalanche left 3.1 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+18
win-probability points
54% → 71% for WPG
WPG 100%the game, start to finish
COL 100%P1 · P2 · P3
WPGP1 18:55

G. Vilardi makes it 0–1.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 18:55WPGG. Vilardi10%0–1
  2. P2 18:50WPGC. Perfetti19%0–2
  3. P3 06:37WPGD. DeMelo3%0–3
  4. P3 14:34COLG. Merkulov51%1–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
COL
45 shots
1
Final
78 shots
WPG
33 shots
3
COL attackWPG attack
COL WPG Goal
45
shots · 1 in
33
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
COLWPG
1 / 7
1.82 xG
High danger
1 / 5
1.71 xG
0 / 18
2.00 xG
Medium
1 / 19
2.11 xG
0 / 32
0.29 xG
Low
1 / 28
0.14 xG

High-danger looks: COL 1 of 7, WPG 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
S. Skinner
+3.1
WPG · 31/32 · 60:00
Best save · a 32% chance, wrist from 5 ft · P2 19:23
A
S. Wedgewood
+1.8
COL · 13/14 · 31:13
Best save · a 51% chance, snap from 4 ft · P1 00:25
+1 more on the full breakdown
Best skater on the ice
A+
WPG
G. Vilardi
C · impact 1.47
16:25
Ice time
1–1
G – A
0.19
Own xG
46%
xG share
Impact · top 4
G. Vilardi1.5A+
J. Morrissey1.6A+
A. Beckman1.4A+
F. Lysell1.3A
Report card
COLWPG
OffenseA+A+
DefenseFF
TransitionC+C-
Special teamsFD-
GoaltendingBA+
DisciplineB-C-
LuckFA-
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why WPG won
  1. 01S. Skinner stole it
  2. 02Dangerous off the rush
  3. 03J. Morrissey led the way
Why COL lost
  1. 01Cold finishing night
  2. 02Rush defense leaked all night
  3. 03I. Nabokov gave one back
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

S. Skinner stands tall as the Jets edge the Avalanche

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 4–9
  1. 18:55WPGG. Vilardi(I. Rosen, V. Namestnikov)0–1

    Snap shot from 33 feet, a 10% chance (off the rush), past S. Wedgewood. S. Wedgewood was 1135s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 18 points.On the ice: D. DeMelo, J. Morrissey, G. Vilardi, I. Rosen, V. Björck · against S. Wedgewood, B. Kulak, N. Roy, F. Svechkov, T. Makar, S. Malinski

2ndshots 11–6
  1. 18:50WPGC. Perfetti(M. Scheifele, J. Morrissey)0–2

    Wrist shot from 8 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past I. Nabokov. I. Nabokov was 457s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: M. Scheifele, K. Connor, M. Ferraro, J. St. Ivany, C. Perfetti · against V. Hinostroza, C. Wolanin, A. Beckman, T. Nielsen, I. Nabokov, G. Stjernberg

3rdshots 17–4
  1. 06:37WPGD. DeMelo(G. Vilardi, J. Morrissey)0–3

    Wrist shot from 52 feet, a 3% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past I. Nabokov. I. Nabokov was 397s into his shift for the defending side.On the ice: V. Namestnikov, N. Gregor, M. Ferraro, J. St. Ivany, C. Koepke · against N. Juulsen, N. Roy, Z. L'Heureux, F. Svechkov, A. Gagne, I. Nabokov

  2. 14:34COLG. Merkulov(F. Lysell, B. Kulak)1–3

    Wrist shot from 1 feet, a 51% chance, past S. Skinner. 5s after a COL shot by F. Lysell.On the ice: C. Wolanin, P. Kelly, L. O'Connor, T. Makar, I. Nabokov, G. Stjernberg · against D. DeMelo, V. Namestnikov, J. Morrissey, N. Gregor, C. Koepke

score reads COL–WPG

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.96
WPG chances
Goals their shots were worth
−1.0
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.040
WPG puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
47.7%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.11Expected goals3.96
COL 51% of the chance quality
32Shots on goal19
7High-danger chances5
57All attempts (Corsi)52
Adjusted for score: COL 56% · WPG 44%
Faceoffs · WPG won53%off39%neu60%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
COL1 / 7 · 1.82 xG
WPG1 / 5 · 1.71 xG
Medium dangermid-range
COL0 / 18 · 2.00 xG
WPG1 / 19 · 2.11 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
COL0 / 32 · 0.29 xG
WPG1 / 28 · 0.14 xG

COL went 0-for-18 from medium danger on 2.00 expected goals — 2.0 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
COL
1 G · 4.11 xG · -3.1
WPG
3 G · 3.96 xG · -1.0
012345

COL finished -3.1 against expected, WPG -1.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
COL
WRIST1/27
SNAP0/7
SLAP0/5
BACKHAND0/2
DEFLECTED0/1
TIP IN0/2
POKE0/1
OTHER0/12
WPG
WRIST2/19
SNAP1/5
SLAP0/2
BACKHAND0/2
DEFLECTED0/3
TIP IN0/1
POKE0/1
OTHER0/19
COL
WPG
Off the rush
0 G on 25
2.61 xG
2 G on 21
2.43 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 4
0.51 xG
0 G on 5
1.43 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: COL went 1-for-27, WPG 2-for-19. WPG scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
I. Nabokov
COL · 3/5 · .600
in relief · 26:08 · loss
-0.8
saved above expected
D-
the night
Attempts faced
11
Avg chance faced
10.5%
Stopped vs expected
0.818 vs 0.895
Rebounds allowed
1
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/20.4-0.6
Medium0/60.7+0.7
Low1/30.1-0.9
Shorthanded0/30.3+0.3
Tips & deflections0/10.1+0.1
The save
20% chance stopped, a backhand from 5 ft · P2 14:23
The one to have back
3% chance went in, a wrist from 52 ft · P3 06:37

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Wedgewood
COL · 13/14 · .929
started · 31:13
+1.8
saved above expected
A
the night
Attempts faced
22
Avg chance faced
12.8%
Stopped vs expected
0.955 vs 0.872
Rebounds allowed
4
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/31.3+1.3
Medium1/131.4+0.4
Low0/60.1+0.1
Shorthanded0/30.4+0.4
Tips & deflections0/30.2+0.2
The save
51% chance stopped, a snap from 4 ft · P1 00:25
The one to have back
10% chance went in, a snap from 33 ft · P1 18:55

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Skinner
WPG · 31/32 · .969
started · 60:00 · win
+3.1
saved above expected
A+
the night
Attempts faced
45
Avg chance faced
9.1%
Stopped vs expected
0.978 vs 0.909
Rebounds allowed
4
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/71.8+0.8
Medium0/182.0+2.0
Low0/200.3+0.3
Shorthanded0/91.1+1.1
Tips & deflections0/30.3+0.3
The save
32% chance stopped, a wrist from 5 ft · P2 19:23
The one to have back
51% chance went in, a wrist from 1 ft · P3 14:34

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: G. Vilardi (WPG), 16:25 of ice, 1-1, 46% of the expected goals while he was out.

COL18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
A. BeckmanL16:030-081A+
F. LysellR15:160-171A
G. MerkulovC16:231-044A
T. NielsenC15:220-084B
C. WolaninD17:240-080B
V. HinostrozaC13:530-055B
G. StjernbergD15:210-074B
T. MakarL13:210-071C
N. PrishchepovC11:010-073C
A. GagneD17:000-049C
L. O'ConnorR17:360-044D
N. JuulsenD18:100-048D
B. KulakD20:450-133D
Z. L'HeureuxL12:000-038D
P. KellyC16:320-049D
N. RoyC18:180-033D
F. SvechkovC17:490-032F
S. MalinskiD24:250-037F
WPG18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
G. VilardiC16:251-146A+
J. MorrisseyD20:150-260A+
V. NamestnikovC15:560-160A
D. DeMeloD20:141-053A
N. GregorL14:370-064A
I. RosenR13:540-140B
C. PerfettiC17:381-042B
C. KoepkeL15:130-055B
M. ScheifeleC18:450-142C
M. FerraroD20:020-050C
J. JulienC9:480-059C
D. BurnsideR8:310-061C
K. ConnorL19:550-039C
V. BjörckC15:170-047D
K. WaltonC9:390-046D
H. ThrunD20:040-035F
D. MayoD16:580-027F
J. St. IvanyD18:540-040F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, COL: B. Burns, N. Kadri, B. Nelson, J. Schwartz, J. Manson, G. Landeskog and 47 more. Scratched, WPG: N. Niederreiter, A. Lowry, C. Hellebuyck, A. Sautner, H. Fleury, P. Kraskovsky and 41 more. Referees Michael Markovic and Stephen Hiff; linesmen Shawn Oliver and David Brisebois.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionCOLWPG
Offense
▸Basis

COL Created 4.11 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.82 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.61 xG).

WPG Created 3.96 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.71 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.43 xG).

A+
100
A+
97
Defense
▸Basis

COL Allowed 3.96 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.71 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.43 xG).

WPG Allowed 4.11 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.82 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.61 xG).

F
53
F
50
Transition
▸Basis

COL Rush shots 25–21, rush xG 2.61–2.43 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

WPG Rush shots 21–25, rush xG 2.43–2.61 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C+
79
C-
71
Special teams
▸Basis

COL 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.74 PP xG.

WPG 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.67 PP xG.

F
58
D-
61
Goaltending
▸Basis

COL +0.96 goals saved above expected on 19 shots against.

WPG +3.11 goals saved above expected on 32 shots against.

B
85
A+
100
Discipline
▸Basis

COL Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

WPG Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

B-
80
C-
70
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

COL Finishing -3.11 goals vs xG plus +0.96 GSAx of save luck = -2.15 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

WPG Finishing -0.96 goals vs xG plus +3.11 GSAx of save luck = +2.15 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

F
58
A-
92
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
STRENGTHWPG

S. Skinner stole it

S. Skinner stopped 31 of 32 (0.969) — +3.11 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.

LUCKCOL

Cold finishing night

Scored 1 on 4.11 xG — -3.11 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

WARNINGCOL

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.43 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHWPG

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.43 xG.

WARNINGWPG

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.61 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHCOL

Dangerous off the rush

0 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.61 xG.

78 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
COL
45 shots
1
Final
78 shots
WPG
33 shots
3
COL attackWPG attack
COL WPG Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — COL left, WPG right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Morrissey
#44 · D · WPG
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 20:15 on ice · +3
G. Vilardi
#13 · C · WPG
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 16:25 on ice · +2
B. Kulak
#27 · D · COL
0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 20:45 on ice
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Sep 21
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Model draft
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 3:20 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a COL 3.3 - 3.0 WPG game with the Avalanche at 55% win probability.

Keys to the game

  • Scott Wedgewood has been a season-long wall. Scott Wedgewood: +14.1 GSAx over 45 games (0.921 SV%).
  • Artturi Lehkonen drives the Avalanche offense. Artturi Lehkonen: 18G 22A, 1.11 xG/60, 6 high-danger goals.
  • Shutdown Assignment: Jets. Key matchup: Neutralize Artturi Lehkonen (18G, 1.11 xG/60, 6 HD goals)

Season 5v5 Numbers

MetricCOLWPG
xG%56.6%48.9%
Corsi%56.4%49.0%
PDO1.0210.998

Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

Where the Edges Live

  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 56.6% 5v5 xG vs 48.9%.
  • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 56.4% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression Watch

  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.

Goaltending Matchup

  • T. Milic is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • I. Nabokov is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

Players to Watch

COL

  • Artturi Lehkonen — 1.11 xG/60, 18G 22A, 6 HD goals, 14.9% shooting
  • Ross Colton — 1.10 xG/60, 7G 15A, 1 HD goals, 4.9% shooting

WPG

  • Nino Niederreiter — 0.87 xG/60, 6G 6A, 3 HD goals, 8.6% shooting
  • Kyle Connor — 0.83 xG/60, 25G 30A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting

Key Matchups

COL

  • Key matchup: Neutralize Artturi Lehkonen (18G, 1.11 xG/60, 6 HD goals)
  • Watch Ross Colton (7G, 4.9% shooting)

WPG

  • Key matchup: Neutralize Nino Niederreiter (6G, 0.87 xG/60, 3 HD goals)
  • Watch Kyle Connor (25G, 13.0% shooting)

Tactical Notes

  • COL: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
  • COL defensive weak link: Nazem Kadri
  • WPG: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
  • WPG defensive weak link: Colin Miller

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

COL 55%
55%
COL
Model favorite
55%
45%
COL50WPG

COL by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 3.3–3.0 WPG; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
COL← edge
edge →WPG
56.6%48.9%
56.4%49.0%
3.592.97
2.763.10
3.632.79
2.403.12
1.0210.998

COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.021 vs 0.998) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 1
COL
1-0-0
+3 GD · 1d rest
WPG
0-1-0
-3 GD · 1d rest
1.021
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.998
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

WARNINGWPG

T. Milic on a back-to-back

T. Milic projects to start on 1 day of rest — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

WARNINGCOL

I. Nabokov on a back-to-back

I. Nabokov projects to start on 1 day of rest — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

STRENGTHCOL

Scott Wedgewood has been a season-long wall

Scott Wedgewood: +14.1 GSAx over 45 games (0.921 SV%).

TACTICALWPG

Shutdown Assignment: Jets

Key matchup: Neutralize Artturi Lehkonen (18G, 1.11 xG/60, 6 HD goals)

Key matchup: Neutralize Artturi Lehkonen (18G, 1.11 xG/60, 6 HD goals)

Where the edges live
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 56.6% 5v5 xG vs 48.9%.
  • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 56.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Avalanche own the underlying play — 56.6% 5v5 xG vs 48.9%.
  • The Avalanche drive Corsi at 56.4% — expect territorial tilt.
  • T. Milic is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • I. Nabokov is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
COL
Expected in goal
I. Nabokov
back-to-back.941 last start
Backup Scott Wedgewood · +14.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WPG
Expected in goal
T. Milic
back-to-back.852 last start
Backup Connor Hellebuyck · +3.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
COL
Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A
1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh
Ross Colton7G 15A
1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh
WPG
Nino Niederreiter6G 6A
0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh
Kyle Connor25G 30A
0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Keep going

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