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Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater
← Thu, Sep 24 · the slate
Breakdown · CGY at SEA · Preseason

Kraken edge the Flames in a shootout

Final / OTThu, Sep 24
CGYCalgary Flames3SEASeattle Kraken4
The verdict · stolen

The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.12–3.63 and won anyway.

CGY 3 · SEA 4
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 1:19 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Seattle won 4-3 in a shootout in a game where the numbers favored Calgary—expected goals split 4.12–3.63, Flames' advantage—but P. Grubauer's goaltending decided it.

P. Grubauer stopped 1.12 more goals than his workload should have allowed. He finished 32 on 35. Seattle also cashed in on the rush: three goals on 27 attempts. Both teams were hapless on high-danger chances—the Kraken 0 for 8, the Flames 0 for 5—and both goalies shut down those threats completely.

Seattle held 43% of shot attempts (26–35). D. Cooley stopped 0.63 more goals than his workload should have allowed. Yet Calgary still ceded three goals in the second period alone, including a power-play backhand from 33 feet.

Discipline tilted toward the Flames: Seattle drew 11 penalties to Calgary's 7, a 19-minute power-play advantage.

Three Stars

  • #10 M. Beniers (SEA) — 2A in 19:37
  • #78 B. Othmann (CGY) — 2A in 12:14
  • #62 B. Montour (SEA) — 1G in 28:10

The goals

  • CGY 1–0, 10:02 of the first. J. Castagna, wrist shot from 12 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past P. Grubauer. Assists: B. Othmann, D. Hunt. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • SEA 1–1, 15:34 of the first. B. McMann, wrist shot from 19 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Cooley. Assists: J. Eberle, C. Stephenson. Win probability moved 18 points.
  • CGY 2–1, 01:38 of the second. R. Kerins, snap shot from 30 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past P. Grubauer. Assists: A. Nylander, S. Morton. Win probability moved 19 points.
  • CGY 3–1, 06:05 of the second on the power play. A. Suniev, wrist shot from 33 feet, an 8% chance by the model (off the rush), past P. Grubauer. Assists: B. Othmann, W. Stromgren. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • SEA 3–2, 01:26 of the third. B. Montour, wrist shot from 34 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Cooley. Assists: M. Beniers, J. McCann. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • SEA 3–3, 07:31 of the third. R. Evans, wrist shot from 13 feet, a 5% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Cooley. Assists: M. Beniers. Win probability moved 31 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Preseason · Sep 24
CGY
3
SEA
4

Kraken edge the Flames in a shootout

Chances 4.1 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Flames deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
CGY
4.12
SEA
3.63
53% of the chances47%

The board read CGY 3, SEA 4. The chances read CGY 4.1, SEA 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
SEA
+0.4
goals above expected
SEA3.63 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
CGY4.12 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+31
win-probability points
22% → 53% for SEA
SEA 100%the game, start to finish
CGY 100%P1 · P2 · P3
SEAP3 07:31

R. Evans makes it 3–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 10:02CGYJ. Castagna14%1–0
  2. P1 15:34SEAB. McMann14%1–1
  3. P2 01:38CGYR. Kerins11%2–1
  4. P2 06:05CGYA. SunievPP8%3–1
  5. P3 01:26SEAB. Montour10%3–2
  6. P3 07:31SEAR. Evans5%3–3
  7. SO 00:00SEAM. BeniersPP3–3
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CGY
46 shots
3
Final
87 shots
SEA
41 shots
3
CGY attackSEA attack
CGY SEA Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

46
shots · 3 in
41
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CGYSEA
0 / 5
1.09 xG
High danger
0 / 8
2.16 xG
3 / 25
2.73 xG
Medium
2 / 10
1.06 xG
0 / 28
0.30 xG
Low
1 / 37
0.42 xG

The Flames went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
P. Grubauer
+1.1
SEA · 32/35 · 65:00
Best save · a 32% chance, wrist from 11 ft · P4 02:42
B
D. Cooley
+0.6
CGY · 23/26 · 65:00
Best save · a 41% chance, wrist from 6 ft · P4 02:23
Best skater on the ice
A+
CGY
B. Othmann
L · impact 1.81
12:14
Ice time
0–2
G – A
0.41
Own xG
48%
xG share
Impact · top 4
B. Othmann1.8A+
A. Suniev1.9A+
M. Beniers1.7A+
A. Nylander1.5A
Report card
CGYSEA
OffenseA+A+
DefenseFF
TransitionCC
Special teamsCF
GoaltendingB-B
DisciplineA+F
LuckC-C+
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why SEA won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02P. Grubauer was perfect on high danger
  3. 03P. Grubauer tilted the crease
Why CGY lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02Wasted the best looks
  3. 03Cold finishing night
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Kraken edge the Flames in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 14–6
  1. 10:02CGYJ. Castagna(B. Othmann, D. Hunt)1–0

    Wrist shot from 12 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past P. Grubauer. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: A. Englund, B. Jones, M. Benning, W. Stromgren, A. Suniev · against A. Larsson, V. Dunn, C. Douglas, B. Meyers, O. Fisker Molgaard

  2. 15:34SEAB. McMann(J. Eberle, C. Stephenson)1–1

    Wrist shot from 19 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past D. Cooley. Win probability moved 18 points.On the ice: J. Eberle, A. Larsson, C. Stephenson, V. Dunn, B. McMann · against B. Jones, B. Pachal, W. Stromgren, A. Suniev, J. Livingstone

2ndshots 10–9
  1. 01:38CGYR. Kerins(A. Nylander, S. Morton)2–1

    Snap shot from 30 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past P. Grubauer. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: J. Hanley, H. Brzustewicz, A. Basha, C. Harrington, T. Gross · against J. Mahura, C. Douglas, V. Ottavainen, B. Meyers, O. Fisker Molgaard

  2. 06:05CGYA. Sunievpower play(B. Othmann, W. Stromgren)3–1

    Wrist shot from 33 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past P. Grubauer. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: D. Hunt, B. Jones, M. Benning, W. Stromgren, T. Gross · against J. Eberle, A. Larsson, C. Stephenson, B. Montour

3rdshots 9–9
  1. 01:26SEAB. Montour(M. Beniers, J. McCann)3–2

    Wrist shot from 34 feet, a 10% chance (off the rush), past D. Cooley. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: B. Montour, J. Mahura, K. Kakko, S. Wright, B. Catton · against D. Hunt, B. Pachal, B. Othmann, J. Castagna, J. Livingstone

  2. 07:31SEAR. Evans(M. Beniers)3–3

    Wrist shot from 13 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Cooley. Win probability moved 31 points.On the ice: B. Montour, K. Kakko, R. Evans, S. Wright, B. Catton · against J. Hanley, D. Hunt, B. Othmann, H. Brzustewicz, J. Castagna

OTshots 2–2no goals
    SO
    1. 00:00SEAM. Benierspower play3–3
    2. 00:00SEAB. Cattonpower play3–3
    3. 00:00CGYA. Sunievpower play3–3

    score reads CGY–SEA

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.63
    SEA chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.4
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.003
    SEA puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    48.7%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.12Expected goals3.63
    CGY 53% of the chance quality
    35Shots on goal26
    5High-danger chances8
    58All attempts (Corsi)55
    Adjusted for score: CGY 49% · SEA 51%
    Faceoffs · SEA won46%off64%neu38%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    CGY0 / 5 · 1.09 xG
    SEA0 / 8 · 2.16 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    CGY3 / 25 · 2.73 xG
    SEA2 / 10 · 1.06 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    CGY0 / 28 · 0.30 xG
    SEA1 / 37 · 0.42 xG

    SEA went 0-for-8 from high danger on 2.16 expected goals — 2.2 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    CGY
    3 G · 4.12 xG · -1.1
    SEA
    4 G · 3.63 xG · +0.4
    012345

    CGY finished -1.1 against expected, SEA +0.4.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    CGY
    WRIST2/29
    SNAP1/10
    BACKHAND0/2
    SLAP0/2
    TIP IN0/3
    OTHER0/12
    SEA
    WRIST3/24
    SNAP0/6
    BACKHAND0/5
    SLAP0/4
    TIP IN0/2
    OTHER0/14
    CGY
    SEA
    Off the rush
    3 G on 26
    2.70 xG
    3 G on 27
    2.71 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 5
    0.52 xG
    0 G on 3
    0.23 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: CGY went 2-for-29, SEA 3-for-24. CGY scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    D. Cooley
    CGY · 23/26 · .885
    started · 65:00 · OT loss
    +0.6
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    Attempts faced
    41
    Avg chance faced
    8.9%
    Stopped vs expected
    0.927 vs 0.911
    Rebounds allowed
    3
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/82.2+2.2
    Medium2/101.1-0.9
    Low1/230.4-0.6
    Shorthanded0/10.2+0.2
    Tips & deflections0/20.1+0.1
    The save
    41% chance stopped, a wrist from 6 ft · P4 02:23
    The one to have back
    5% chance went in, a wrist from 13 ft · P3 07:31

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    P. Grubauer
    SEA · 32/35 · .914
    started · 65:00 · win
    +1.1
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    Attempts faced
    46
    Avg chance faced
    9.0%
    Stopped vs expected
    0.935 vs 0.910
    Rebounds allowed
    5
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/51.1+1.1
    Medium3/252.7-0.3
    Low0/160.3+0.3
    Shorthanded1/110.9-0.1
    Tips & deflections0/30.4+0.4
    The save
    32% chance stopped, a wrist from 11 ft · P4 02:42
    The one to have back
    8% chance went in, a wrist from 33 ft · P2 06:05

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    Every skater who dressed

    Who played

    Rated on what they produced and how fast

    Best skater on the ice by our rating: B. Othmann (CGY), 12:14 of ice, 0-2, 48% of the expected goals while he was out.

    CGY18 skaters
    SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
    B. OthmannL12:140-248A+
    A. SunievL20:141-085A+
    A. NylanderL21:280-177A
    S. MortonC18:380-165A
    J. CastagnaC13:041-049A
    W. StromgrenL16:550-179A
    R. KerinsC17:081-040B
    H. BrzustewiczD25:400-064B
    T. GrossC15:200-050C
    A. EnglundD17:350-061C
    D. HuntL16:370-147C
    M. BenningD22:110-053C
    B. JonesC18:020-045C
    J. HanleyD20:110-053D
    C. HarringtonL11:040-039D
    A. BashaL10:300-051D
    J. LivingstoneD17:370-026F
    B. PachalD16:320-023F
    SEA18 skaters
    SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
    M. BeniersC19:370-260A+
    S. WrightC16:420-060A
    B. MontourD28:101-043B
    B. McMannC16:501-041B
    J. EberleR16:070-138B
    J. MahuraD18:320-069B
    J. McCannL16:560-142B
    M. SamoskevichR18:300-060C
    C. StephensonC15:590-147C
    R. EvansD25:451-042C
    K. KakkoR15:060-053D
    B. MeyersC13:580-030D
    V. DunnD21:120-049D
    B. CattonC16:370-051D
    A. LarssonD18:420-032D
    V. OttavainenD10:230-041F
    O. Fisker MolgaardC12:350-036F
    C. DouglasC5:210-041F

    xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

    Scratched, CGY: M. Backlund, J. Huberdeau, R. Strome, R. Rafikov, J. Middleton, L. Philp and 49 more. Scratched, SEA: G. Olofsson, F. Gaudreau, M. Stephens, J. Daccord, R. Lindgren, C. Fleury and 25 more. Referees Graham Skilliter and Ben Betker; linesmen Travis Gawryletz and Caleb Apperson.

    Graded against a league-average game

    Report card

    Seven dimensions · A+ to F
    DimensionCGYSEA
    Offense
    ▸Basis

    CGY Created 4.12 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.09 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.70 xG).

    SEA Created 3.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 8 high-danger shots (2.16 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.71 xG).

    A+
    97
    A+
    97
    Defense
    ▸Basis

    CGY Allowed 3.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 8 high-danger shots (2.16 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.71 xG).

    SEA Allowed 4.12 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.09 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.70 xG).

    F
    53
    F
    53
    Transition
    ▸Basis

    CGY Rush shots 26–27, rush xG 2.70–2.71 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

    SEA Rush shots 27–26, rush xG 2.71–2.70 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

    C
    74
    C
    76
    Special teams
    ▸Basis

    CGY 1-for-5 on the power play (20%; league ≈21%) with 0.92 PP xG.

    SEA 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.20 PP xG.

    C
    75
    F
    52
    Goaltending
    ▸Basis

    CGY +0.63 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.

    SEA +1.12 goals saved above expected on 35 shots against.

    B-
    81
    B
    86
    Discipline
    ▸Basis

    CGY Took 7 penalties for 25 PIM vs 11 for 44 on the other side.

    SEA Took 11 penalties for 44 PIM vs 7 for 25 on the other side.

    A+
    100
    F
    28
    Luck

    Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

    ▸Basis

    CGY Finishing -1.12 goals vs xG plus +0.63 GSAx of save luck = -0.49 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

    SEA Finishing -0.63 goals vs xG plus +1.12 GSAx of save luck = +0.49 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

    C-
    71
    C+
    79
    Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
    What the model flagged
    WARNINGSEA

    Paraded to the penalty box

    Took 11 penalties for 44 minutes (opponent: 7 for 25).

    Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.

    WARNINGCGY

    Rush defense leaked all night

    Gave up 27 rush shots worth 2.71 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

    Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

    WARNINGSEA

    Rush defense leaked all night

    Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.70 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

    Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

    STRENGTHSEA

    Dangerous off the rush

    3 goals on 27 rush shots worth 2.71 xG.

    STRENGTHCGY

    Dangerous off the rush

    3 goals on 26 rush shots worth 2.70 xG.

    LUCKSEA

    Wasted the best looks

    0-for-8 on high-danger chances worth 2.16 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.

    87 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    CGY
    46 shots
    3
    Final
    87 shots
    SEA
    41 shots
    3
    CGY attackSEA attack
    CGY SEA Goal

    Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

    Each club shoots toward its own end — CGY left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    M. Beniers
    #10 · C · SEA
    0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 19:37 on ice · +2
    B. Othmann
    #78 · L · CGY
    0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 12:14 on ice
    B. Montour
    #62 · D · SEA
    1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 28:10 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page