Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 31 rush shots worth 3.93 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

The Bruins shut out the Rangers 3-0. New York generated five scoring chances from the slot but couldn't finish them; J. Swayman was perfect, and Boston's rush attack did the rest.
The Bruins controlled five-on-five expected goals, 4.42 to 3.00. New York finished zero-for-five on high-danger chances—a night that won't repeat often. The Bruins were clinical by contrast: two-for-four in the slot. J. Swayman faced 24 shots and stopped all 24—three goals above what that workload should have allowed.
Boston scored three times off the rush, all in the third period, against 31 rush chances worth 3.93 expected goals. That edge in transition is where the game lived.
F. Minten opened the third from 38 feet off the rush (a six-percent look). J. Peterka added a second from 19 feet (20 percent) at 17:06. M. Kastelic finished into an empty net at 17:29 from 20 feet (97 percent).
I. Shesterkin made 20 saves on 22 shots, 2.42 above expected. M. Lohrei and H. Lindholm each recorded an assist for Boston.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Bruins shut out the Rangers, 3-0
The Bruins earned this one.
The board read NYR 0, BOS 3. The chances read NYR 3.0, BOS 4.4.
The Rangers left 3.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.
F. Minten makes it 0–1.
The Rangers went 0 for 5 from the slot.
Bruins shut out the Rangers, 3-0
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownSnap shot from 38 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past I. Shesterkin. 5s after a NYR giveaway by V. Gavrikov. Win probability moved 38 points.
Snap shot from 19 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past I. Shesterkin. Win probability moved 7 points.
Snap shot from 20 feet, a 97% chance, a near-certain one (off the rush).
score reads NYR–BOS
BOS went 1-for-27 from medium danger on 2.63 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.
NYR finished -3.0 against expected, BOS -1.4.
Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 0-for-11, BOS 0-for-19. BOS scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: F. Minten (BOS), 14:48 of ice, 1-1, 27% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. DorofeyevR | 15:49 | 0-0 | 5 | 0.90 | 68 | 0/0 | 1.09 | 4.12 | A+ |
| O. BjorkstrandR | 14:33 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.56 | 67 | 0/0 | 0.88 | 3.62 | A |
| J. MillerC | 16:12 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.20 | 72 | 0/0 | 0.73 | 2.69 | A |
| B. SchneiderD | 16:14 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.14 | 73 | 0/0 | 0.67 | 2.49 | B |
| V. GavrikovD | 19:58 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.01 | 69 | 0/0 | 0.68 | 2.06 | B |
| W. CuylleL | 15:03 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.45 | 49 | 0/0 | 0.33 | 1.32 | C |
| E. TolvanenR | 13:56 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.31 | 51 | 0/0 | 0.25 | 1.09 | C |
| A. SmitsD | 16:54 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 56 | 0/0 | 0.12 | 0.43 | C |
| A. LafrenièreL | 18:17 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 45 | 1/0 | 0.12 | 0.39 | C |
| M. ZibanejadC | 18:31 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.11 | 40 | 0/0 | 0.12 | 0.39 | C |
| M. RempeC | 9:49 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.20 | 39 | 0/0 | 0.06 | 0.36 | D |
| A. FoxD | 18:25 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 51 | 0/0 | 0.07 | 0.21 | D |
| G. PerreaultR | 16:20 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 38 | 0/0 | -0.04 | -0.15 | D |
| J. VelenoC | 15:57 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 30 | 0/0 | -0.06 | -0.23 | D |
| S. DurziD | 23:15 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.06 | 36 | 0/0 | -0.11 | -0.29 | F |
| T. KartyeL | 13:20 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 33 | 0/0 | -0.15 | -0.68 | F |
| M. PetterssonD | 23:08 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.03 | 25 | 0/0 | -0.25 | -0.65 | F |
| N. LabaC | 12:56 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 44 | 0/1 | -0.23 | -1.09 | F |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. MintenC | 14:48 | 1-1 | 3 | 0.42 | 27 | 0/0 | 1.37 | 5.56 | A+ |
| M. KastelicC | 13:07 | 1-0 | 1 | 0.97 | 39 | 0/0 | 1.18 | 5.40 | A+ |
| J. PeterkaR | 17:09 | 1-0 | 1 | 0.38 | 61 | 0/0 | 1.05 | 3.69 | A |
| H. LindholmD | 18:37 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 64 | 1/0 | 1.00 | 3.22 | A |
| E. LindholmC | 15:59 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.11 | 60 | 0/0 | 0.87 | 3.28 | A |
| C. MittelstadtC | 14:28 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.36 | 63 | 0/0 | 0.57 | 2.36 | B |
| P. ZachaC | 15:24 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.54 | 57 | 0/0 | 0.55 | 2.15 | B |
| M. LohreiD | 19:21 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.04 | 43 | 0/0 | 0.58 | 1.81 | B |
| D. PastrnakR | 17:32 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.41 | 64 | 0/0 | 0.57 | 1.94 | B |
| S. KuralyC | 15:01 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.38 | 50 | 0/0 | 0.38 | 1.51 | B |
| M. GeekieC | 16:18 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.20 | 61 | 0/0 | 0.33 | 1.22 | C |
| W. BorgenD | 17:43 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.03 | 56 | 0/0 | 0.23 | 0.78 | C |
| M. KhusnutdinovC | 13:23 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 23 | 0/0 | 0.17 | 0.76 | C |
| C. CliftonD | 23:23 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.13 | 36 | 0/0 | 0.03 | 0.08 | D |
| T. JeannotL | 13:13 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.18 | 50 | 0/1 | -0.05 | -0.22 | D |
| J. AspirotD | 17:13 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.04 | 43 | 0/0 | -0.07 | -0.23 | D |
| N. ZadorovD | 21:54 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.04 | 38 | 0/0 | -0.10 | -0.27 | D |
| J. HagensC | 13:27 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.20 | 19 | 0/0 | -0.27 | -1.21 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, NYR: M. Robertson, S. Morrow, J. Chmelar. Scratched, BOS: C. McAvoy, M. Eyssimont, F. Brunet. Referees Wes McCauley and Furman South; linesmen Scott Cherrey and Julien Fournier.
NYR Created 3.00 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.30 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.91 xG).
BOS Created 4.42 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.58 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.93 xG).
NYR Allowed 4.42 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.58 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.93 xG).
BOS Allowed 3.00 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.30 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.91 xG).
NYR Rush shots 20–31, rush xG 1.91–3.93 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
BOS Rush shots 31–20, rush xG 3.93–1.91 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NYR 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.06 PP xG.
BOS 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.06 PP xG.
NYR +2.42 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
BOS +3.00 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.
NYR Took 1 penalties for 2 PIM vs 1 for 2 on the other side.
BOS Took 1 penalties for 2 PIM vs 1 for 2 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
NYR Finishing -3.00 goals vs xG plus +2.42 GSAx of save luck = -0.58 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
BOS Finishing -1.42 goals vs xG plus +3.00 GSAx of save luck = +1.58 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
Gave up 31 rush shots worth 3.93 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
3 goals on 31 rush shots worth 3.93 xG.
J. Swayman stopped 24 of 24 (1.000) — +3.00 goals saved above expected in a 3-goal game.
I. Shesterkin stopped 20 of 22 (0.909) — +2.42 goals saved above expected in a 3-goal game.
Scored 0 on 3.00 xG — -3.00 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
2 goals on 4 high-danger shots (50% conversion on 1.58 xG).
Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
This is a true toss-up: the model projects a 3.1 - 3.2 game with the Bruins at 51% win probability. The matchup will turn on whether David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie can overwhelm a Rangers defense that's struggling to contain threats around the net.
David Pastrnak drives the Bruins offense: 16 goals, 71 assists, and 1.12 expected goals per 60 minutes. Morgan Geekie has led the league with 23 goals despite shooting at 12.7%, generating chances at 1.05 expected goals per 60. The Rangers counter with Will Cuylle generating 0.99 expected goals per 60 with 10 goals and 11 high-danger goals, while J.T. Miller clicks at 0.97 per 60 despite a modest 5.6% shooting rate.
The Bruins' primary defensive assignment is shutting down Cuylle, who has drawn 31 high-danger shots this season. Boston will need to collapse the slot—the Bruins score 43% of their goals from high-danger areas and are vulnerable to the same tactic on their end.
I. Shesterkin has posted a +18.8 goals saved above expected across 51 games with a 91.2% save percentage. J. Swayman carries a larger buffer at +23.5 across 55 games but sits at 90.8%—Swayman has been the steadier hand, though both are playing well above league average.
The season tells a close story: the Rangers hold 47.5% of expected goals and 48.6% of shot attempts at even strength; Boston counters with 46.7% and 49.0%. The Bruins are running a PDO of 1.022, suggesting regression is due. The Rangers sit at 1.009, closer to sustainable. Neither team's peripherals suggest a blowout—this is a game where execution and goaltending will decide it.
Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.
BOS by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYR 3.1–3.2 BOS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
BOS holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.022) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Highest individual xG/60 on NYR. Gets 31 HD shots. Limit slot access.
Key matchup: Neutralize Will Cuylle (10G, 0.99 xG/60, 11 HD goals)
David Pastrnak: 16G 71A, 1.12 xG/60, 8 high-danger goals.
Gabe Perreault is on ice for 2.36 xGA/60 and 50 high-danger shots against this season.
Hunt matchups against Gabe Perreault's shifts with the top line.
Jonathan Aspirot is on ice for 2.38 xGA/60 and 65 high-danger shots against this season.
Hunt matchups against Jonathan Aspirot's shifts with the top line.
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.