Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Edmonton Oilers sweater
← Thu, Oct 1 · the slate
Breakdown · EDM at VAN

Oilers hold off the Canucks

FinalThu, Oct 1
EDMEdmonton Oilers9VANVancouver Canucks7
The verdict · earned

The Oilers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

EDM 9 · VAN 7
◆ By the ModelOct 2, 1:02 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Edmonton beat Vancouver 9-7. The Oilers controlled the pace from the opening shift through the third, with a dominant first 20 minutes that buried the Canucks before they could settle in.

The scoreline flatters Vancouver. Edmonton controlled 56% of expected goals at 5v5, a stark advantage across the full game. High-danger chances stayed even at 7-7, which shouldn't have been possible given that expected-goals gap — Vancouver's finishing was exceptional, and Edmonton's goaltending was not. Both teams wildly overperformed their workload: Vancouver finished 3.66 goals ahead of expected, Edmonton 4.80 ahead. K. Lankinen allowed 4.29 more than his chances warranted; D. Levi gave up 3.66 over.

The Oilers converted 6 of 27 rush chances; Vancouver converted 4 of 22. Edmonton's power play cashed in twice on 17 attempts. The first period settled it — Edmonton led 5-0 after 20 minutes, built on two shots 16 seconds apart (O. Michaels at 14:26, E. Bouchard at 14:42). J. Oleksiak's snap shot at 18:31 of the third trimmed it to 9-7, but the damage was done.

K. Lankinen finished with a 0.650 save percentage on 20 shots. L. Meriläinen replaced him and stopped 10 of 11.

Three Stars: C. McDavid (1 goal, 4 assists in 22:03), E. Bouchard (1 goal, 2 assists in 24:21), L. Draisaitl (2 goals, 1 assist in 20:19).

The goals

  • EDM 1–0, 09:26 of the first on the power play. V. Podkolzin, wrist shot from 7 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past K. Lankinen. Assists: K. Kapanen, C. McDavid. K. Lankinen was 566 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • EDM 2–0, 14:26 of the first. O. Michaels, snap shot from 13 feet, a 20% chance by the model, past K. Lankinen. Assists: M. Joseph, E. Bouchard. 5 seconds after an EDM missed shot by M. Joseph. K. Lankinen was 866 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • EDM 3–0, 14:42 of the first. E. Bouchard, shot from 55 feet, a 1% chance by the model, past K. Lankinen. K. Lankinen was 882 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 10 points.
  • EDM 4–0, 19:32 of the first. R. Shea, wrist shot from 16 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past K. Lankinen. Assists: C. McDavid, L. Draisaitl. 10 seconds after an EDM hit by E. Bouchard. K. Lankinen was 1172 seconds into his shift for the defending side.
  • EDM 5–0, 00:27 of the second. L. Draisaitl, wrist shot from 11 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past K. Lankinen. Assists: E. Bouchard, C. McDavid.
  • VAN 5–1, 04:31 of the second. P. Cotter, wrist shot from 19 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Levi. Assists: L. Ohgren.
  • EDM 6–1, 05:04 of the second. T. Frederic, wrist shot from 8 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past K. Lankinen. Assists: I. Howard. 2 seconds after an EDM shot by I. Howard. K. Lankinen was 304 seconds into his shift for the defending side.
  • VAN 6–2, 05:47 of the second. B. Boeser, wrist shot from 39 feet, a 5% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Levi. Assists: P. Cotter, J. Oleksiak. 4 seconds after an EDM hit by O. Michaels.
  • EDM 7–2, 07:49 of the second shorthanded. C. McDavid, backhander from 13 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past K. Lankinen. 5 seconds after a VAN giveaway by B. Boeser. K. Lankinen was 469 seconds into his shift for the defending side.
  • EDM 8–2, 08:23 of the second shorthanded. K. Kapanen, wrist shot from 11 feet, a 32% chance by the model (off the rush), past K. Lankinen.
  • VAN 8–3, 19:59 of the second. A. Bains, snap shot from 7 feet, a 20% chance by the model (a rebound), past D. Levi. Assists: E. Pettersson, F. Hronek. 1 second after a VAN shot by E. Pettersson. C. Murphy was 79 seconds into his shift for the defending side.
  • VAN 8–4, 01:53 of the third. M. Rossi, backhander from 8 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past D. Levi. Assists: J. Lekkerimäki, T. Willander. 3 seconds after a VAN shot by M. Rossi.
  • VAN 8–5, 04:43 of the third. M. Rossi, deflection from 9 feet, a 6% chance by the model (a rebound), past D. Levi. Assists: A. Bains, L. Schenn. 2 seconds after a VAN missed shot by A. Bains.
  • VAN 8–6, 07:37 of the third on the power play. E. Pettersson, slap shot from 35 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Levi. Assists: M. Rossi, B. Boeser.
  • EDM 9–6, 09:26 of the third on the power play. L. Draisaitl, wrist shot from 25 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past L. Meriläinen. Assists: C. McDavid, V. Podkolzin. 6 seconds after an EDM faceoff win by L. Draisaitl. L. Meriläinen was 566 seconds into his shift for the defending side.
  • VAN 9–7, 18:31 of the third. J. Oleksiak, snap shot from 34 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Levi. Assists: F. Hronek, E. Pettersson.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 1
EDM
9
VAN
7

Oilers hold off the Canucks

Chances 4.2 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Oilers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
EDM
4.20
VAN
3.34
56% of the chances44%

The board read EDM 9, VAN 7. The chances read EDM 4.2, VAN 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
EDM
+4.8
goals above expected
EDM4.20 expected · 9 scored
Expected
Scored
VAN3.34 expected · 7 scored
Expected
Scored

The Oilers scored 4.8 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+16
win-probability points
46% → 62% for EDM
VAN 100%the game, start to finish
EDM 100%P1 · P2 · P3
EDMP1 09:26 · PP

V. Podkolzin makes it 1–0.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 09:26EDMV. PodkolzinPP20%1–0
  2. P1 14:26EDMO. Michaels20%2–0
  3. P1 14:42EDME. Bouchard1%3–0
  4. P1 19:32EDMR. Shea14%4–0
  5. P2 00:27EDML. Draisaitl14%5–0
  6. P2 04:31VANP. Cotter14%5–1
  7. P2 05:04EDMT. Frederic14%6–1
+9 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
EDM
44 shots
9
Final
76 shots
VAN
32 shots
7
EDM attackVAN attack
EDM VAN Goal
44
shots · 9 in
32
shots · 7 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
EDMVAN
4 / 7
1.56 xG
High danger
1 / 7
1.62 xG
4 / 22
2.40 xG
Medium
5 / 11
1.29 xG
1 / 28
0.23 xG
Low
1 / 32
0.43 xG

The Oilers buried 4 of 7 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
L. Meriläinen
+0.3
VAN · 10/11 · 30:41 · in relief
Best save · a 24% chance, snap from 18 ft · P3 14:21
F
D. Levi
−3.7
EDM · 15/22 · 59:51
Best save · a 41% chance, wrist from 4 ft · P3 05:39
+1 more on the full breakdown
Best skater on the ice
A+
EDM
C. McDavid
C · impact 4.33
22:03
Ice time
1–4
G – A
0.60
Own xG
70%
xG share
Impact · top 4
C. McDavid4.3A+
L. Draisaitl3.3A+
M. Rossi2.7A+
E. Bouchard3.1A
Report card
EDMVAN
OffenseA+A-
DefenseD-F
TransitionB+D
Special teamsA+B+
GoaltendingFF
DisciplineBD
LuckBC
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why EDM won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02Clinical in the slot
  3. 03Power play cashed in
Why VAN lost
  1. 01K. Lankinen couldn't make the stop
  2. 02Rush defense leaked all night
  3. 03Ran hot in front of the net
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Oilers hold off the Canucks

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 15–2
  1. 09:26EDMV. Podkolzinpower play(K. Kapanen, C. McDavid)1–0

    Wrist shot from 7 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past K. Lankinen. K. Lankinen was 566s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: J. Walman, T. Frederic, S. Mukhamadullin, I. Howard, J. Samanski · against L. Schenn, B. Gallagher, K. Lankinen, P. Cotter, A. Bains, E. Pettersson

  2. 14:26EDMO. Michaels(M. Joseph, E. Bouchard)2–0

    Snap shot from 13 feet, a 20% chance, past K. Lankinen. 5s after an EDM miss by M. Joseph. K. Lankinen was 866s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: M. Ekholm, L. Draisaitl, C. McDavid, E. Bouchard, V. Podkolzin · against F. Hronek, K. Lankinen, L. Karlsson, D. O'Connor, M. Sasson, T. Willander

  3. 14:42EDME. Bouchard3–0

    Shot from 55 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past K. Lankinen. K. Lankinen was 882s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 10 points.On the ice: C. Murphy, K. Kapanen, R. Shea, M. Jones, C. Dach · against L. Schenn, J. DeBrusk, K. Lankinen, J. Lekkerimäki, L. Ohgren, E. Pettersson

  4. 19:32EDMR. Shea(C. McDavid, L. Draisaitl)4–0

    Wrist shot from 16 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past K. Lankinen. 10s after an EDM hit by E. Bouchard. K. Lankinen was 1172s into his shift for the defending side.On the ice: C. Murphy, K. Kapanen, R. Shea, M. Jones, J. Samanski · against B. Gallagher, F. Hronek, K. Lankinen, P. Cotter, A. Bains, E. Pettersson

2ndshots 9–8
  1. 00:27EDML. Draisaitl(E. Bouchard, C. McDavid)5–0

    Wrist shot from 11 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past K. Lankinen.On the ice: C. Murphy, M. Joseph, R. Shea, A. Formenton, O. Michaels · against J. Oleksiak, B. Boeser, K. Lankinen, P. Cotter, L. Ohgren, T. Willander

  2. 04:31VANP. Cotter(L. Ohgren)5–1

    Wrist shot from 19 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past D. Levi.On the ice: L. Schenn, K. Lankinen, M. Rossi, A. Bains, J. Lekkerimäki, E. Pettersson · against C. Murphy, R. Shea, T. Frederic, I. Howard, J. Samanski

  3. 05:04EDMT. Frederic(I. Howard)6–1

    Wrist shot from 8 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past K. Lankinen. 2s after an EDM shot by I. Howard. K. Lankinen was 304s into his shift for the defending side.On the ice: M. Ekholm, L. Draisaitl, C. McDavid, E. Bouchard, V. Podkolzin · against J. DeBrusk, F. Hronek, E. Pettersson, K. Lankinen, L. Karlsson, Z. Buium

  4. 05:47VANB. Boeser(P. Cotter, J. Oleksiak)6–2

    Wrist shot from 39 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Levi. 4s after an EDM hit by O. Michaels.On the ice: L. Schenn, B. Gallagher, K. Lankinen, D. O'Connor, E. Pettersson, M. Sasson · against C. Murphy, K. Kapanen, R. Shea, M. Jones, C. Dach

  5. 07:49EDMC. McDavidshorthanded7–2

    Backhander from 13 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past K. Lankinen. 5s after a VAN giveaway by B. Boeser. K. Lankinen was 469s into his shift for the defending side.On the ice: M. Ekholm, C. Murphy, K. Kapanen, O. Michaels · against K. Lankinen, L. Karlsson, J. Lekkerimäki, L. Ohgren, T. Willander, Z. Buium

  6. 08:23EDMK. Kapanenshorthanded8–2

    Wrist shot from 11 feet, a 32% chance (off the rush), past K. Lankinen.On the ice: J. Walman, R. Shea, C. Dach, O. Michaels · against B. Boeser, J. DeBrusk, F. Hronek, E. Pettersson, M. Rossi, L. Meriläinen

  7. 19:59VANA. Bains(E. Pettersson, F. Hronek)8–3

    Snap shot from 7 feet, a 20% chance (a rebound), past D. Levi. 1s after a VAN shot by E. Pettersson. C. Murphy was 79s into his shift for the defending side.On the ice: F. Hronek, M. Rossi, L. Meriläinen, A. Bains, J. Lekkerimäki, Z. Buium · against C. Murphy, M. Joseph, R. Shea, A. Formenton, O. Michaels

3rdshots 8–12
  1. 01:53VANM. Rossi(J. Lekkerimäki, T. Willander)8–4

    Backhander from 8 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past D. Levi. 3s after a VAN shot by M. Rossi.On the ice: L. Schenn, B. Gallagher, D. O'Connor, L. Meriläinen, M. Sasson, Z. Buium · against J. Walman, T. Frederic, S. Mukhamadullin, I. Howard, J. Samanski

  2. 04:43VANM. Rossi(A. Bains, L. Schenn)8–5

    Deflection from 9 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (a rebound), past D. Levi. 2s after a VAN miss by A. Bains.On the ice: J. Oleksiak, B. Boeser, F. Hronek, P. Cotter, L. Meriläinen, L. Ohgren · against M. Ekholm, L. Draisaitl, C. McDavid, E. Bouchard, V. Podkolzin

  3. 07:37VANE. Petterssonpower play(M. Rossi, B. Boeser)8–6

    Slap shot from 35 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past D. Levi.On the ice: J. Oleksiak, F. Hronek, L. Karlsson, P. Cotter, L. Meriläinen, L. Ohgren · against L. Draisaitl, K. Kapanen, R. Shea, E. Bouchard, V. Podkolzin

  4. 09:26EDML. Draisaitlpower play(C. McDavid, V. Podkolzin)9–6

    Wrist shot from 25 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past L. Meriläinen. 6s after an EDM faceoff win by L. Draisaitl. L. Meriläinen was 566s into his shift for the defending side.On the ice: C. Murphy, J. Walman, M. Joseph, A. Formenton, O. Michaels · against B. Boeser, P. Cotter, L. Meriläinen, L. Ohgren, T. Willander, Z. Buium

  5. 18:31VANJ. Oleksiak(F. Hronek, E. Pettersson)9–7

    Snap shot from 34 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past D. Levi.

score reads EDM–VAN

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.20
EDM chances
Goals their shots were worth
+4.8
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.018
EDM puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
53.3%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.20Expected goals3.34
EDM 56% of the chance quality
32Shots on goal22
7High-danger chances7
57All attempts (Corsi)50
Adjusted for score: EDM 47% · VAN 53%
Faceoffs · VAN won27%off64%neu70%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
EDM4 / 7 · 1.56 xG
VAN1 / 7 · 1.62 xG
Medium dangermid-range
EDM4 / 22 · 2.40 xG
VAN5 / 11 · 1.29 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
EDM1 / 28 · 0.23 xG
VAN1 / 32 · 0.43 xG

VAN went 5-for-11 from medium danger on 1.29 expected goals — 3.7 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
EDM
9 G · 4.20 xG · +4.8
VAN
7 G · 3.34 xG · +3.7
012345678910

EDM finished +4.8 against expected, VAN +3.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
EDM
WRIST6/31
SNAP1/7
TIP IN0/0
SLAP0/2
BACKHAND1/2
DEFLECTED0/0
BAT0/1
OTHER1/14
VAN
WRIST2/6
SNAP2/16
TIP IN0/6
SLAP1/1
BACKHAND1/1
DEFLECTED1/2
BAT0/0
OTHER0/18
EDM
VAN
Off the rush
6 G on 27
3.40 xG
4 G on 22
2.45 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 4
0.48 xG
3 G on 4
0.54 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: EDM went 6-for-31, VAN 2-for-6. EDM scored 6 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
D. Levi
EDM · 15/22 · .682
started · 59:51 · win
-3.7
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
32
Avg chance faced
10.4%
Stopped vs expected
0.781 vs 0.896
Rebounds allowed
4 · 3 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/71.6+0.6
Medium5/111.3-3.7
Low1/140.4-0.6
Shorthanded1/60.6-0.4
Tips & deflections1/80.6-0.5
The save
41% chance stopped, a wrist from 4 ft · P3 05:39
The one to have back
5% chance went in, a wrist from 39 ft · P2 05:47

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Meriläinen
VAN · 10/11 · .909
in relief · 30:41
+0.3
saved above expected
B
the night
Attempts faced
15
Avg chance faced
8.4%
Stopped vs expected
0.933 vs 0.916
Rebounds allowed
1
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.4+0.4
Medium1/70.7-0.3
Low0/60.1+0.1
Shorthanded1/60.7-0.3
The save
24% chance stopped, a snap from 18 ft · P3 14:21
The one to have back
14% chance went in, a wrist from 25 ft · P3 09:26

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

K. Lankinen
VAN · 13/20 · .650
started · 28:23 · loss
-4.1
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
28
Avg chance faced
10.5%
Stopped vs expected
0.714 vs 0.895
Rebounds allowed
3 · 1 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger4/51.1-2.9
Medium3/151.7-1.3
Low1/80.1-0.9
Shorthanded1/60.8-0.1
The save
22% chance stopped, a wrist from 7 ft · P1 03:21
The one to have back
1% chance went in from 55 ft · P1 14:42

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: C. McDavid (EDM), 22:03 of ice, 1-4, 70% of the expected goals while he was out.

EDM18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
C. McDavidC22:031-470A+
L. DraisaitlC20:192-175A+
E. BouchardD24:211-276A
V. PodkolzinR18:041-165A
K. KapanenR18:481-172A
I. HowardL10:580-166B
T. FredericC10:551-069B
O. MichaelsR13:231-051B
M. JosephR15:070-140C
R. SheaD23:051-045C
C. DachC12:460-071C
J. WalmanD13:020-081C
M. EkholmD20:420-056D
S. MukhamadullinD10:010-047D
J. SamanskiC8:410-050D
M. JonesL11:410-055F
C. MurphyD24:470-037F
A. FormentonL16:150-036F
VAN18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
M. RossiC15:162-162A+
E. PetterssonC17:361-242A
A. BainsL11:291-140A
B. BoeserR18:381-138B
J. OleksiakD21:191-140B
J. LekkerimäkiR12:040-165B
F. HronekD23:020-239B
P. CotterL16:121-111C
L. SchennD14:020-150C
Z. BuiumD20:580-054C
M. SassonC13:360-059C
L. OhgrenL18:330-125D
B. GallagherR11:080-054D
J. DeBruskL15:370-046D
D. O'ConnorL13:230-057D
T. WillanderD21:110-130D
L. KarlssonC13:470-030F
E. PetterssonD16:170-020F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, EDM: Z. Hyman, T. Emberson, S. Stastney. Scratched, VAN: G. Brisebois, A. Räty, V. Mancini. Referees Pierre Lambert and Michael Markovic; linesmen Bevan Mills and Jeremy Faucher.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionEDMVAN
Offense
▸Basis

EDM Created 4.20 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.56 xG) and 27 rush shots (3.40 xG).

VAN Created 3.34 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.62 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.45 xG).

A+
100
A-
90
Defense
▸Basis

EDM Allowed 3.34 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.62 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.45 xG).

VAN Allowed 4.20 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.56 xG) and 27 rush shots (3.40 xG).

D-
60
F
47
Transition
▸Basis

EDM Rush shots 27–22, rush xG 3.40–2.45 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

VAN Rush shots 22–27, rush xG 2.45–3.40 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

B+
87
D
63
Special teams
▸Basis

EDM 2-for-5 on the power play (40%; league ≈21%) with 1.50 PP xG.

VAN 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.52 PP xG.

A+
100
B+
88
Goaltending
▸Basis

EDM -3.66 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.

VAN -3.80 goals saved above expected on 31 shots against.

F
38
F
37
Discipline
▸Basis

EDM Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.

VAN Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

B
85
D
65
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

EDM Finishing +4.80 goals vs xG plus -3.66 GSAx of save luck = +1.14 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

VAN Finishing +3.66 goals vs xG plus -3.80 GSAx of save luck = -0.14 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

B
84
C
74
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGVAN

K. Lankinen couldn't make the stop

K. Lankinen allowed 7 on 20 shots (0.650) — 4.29 goals worse than expected.

Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.

STRENGTHEDM

Dangerous off the rush

6 goals on 27 rush shots worth 3.40 xG.

WARNINGVAN

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 27 rush shots worth 3.40 xG (6 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

LUCKEDM

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 9 on 4.20 xG — +4.80 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

WARNINGEDM

D. Levi couldn't make the stop

D. Levi allowed 7 on 22 shots (0.682) — 3.66 goals worse than expected.

Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.

LUCKVAN

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 7 on 3.34 xG — +3.66 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

76 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
EDM
44 shots
9
Final
76 shots
VAN
32 shots
7
EDM attackVAN attack
EDM VAN Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — EDM left, VAN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
C. McDavid
#97 · C · EDM
1 G · 4 A · 3 SOG · 22:03 on ice · +4
E. Bouchard
#2 · D · EDM
1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 24:21 on ice · +3
L. Draisaitl
#29 · C · EDM
2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 20:19 on ice · +3
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page