Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 31 rush shots worth 3.14 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

Anaheim scored four straight goals in the first two periods—B. Sennecke off the rush, A. Killorn on a tip, J. Malott on a deflection, and L. Carlsson on the rebound—and led 4-0 through two. Vegas scored three in the third but fell short, losing 4-3.
The Ducks won a game they had no right to win. Vegas controlled 59% of expected goals at 5v5, 3.46–2.42—a decisive advantage that Anaheim's hot hand and perfect goaltending turned into a steal.
L. Dostal was perfect on high-danger chances. The Ducks gave up six: Dostal stopped all six. Vegas got two high-danger goals past C. Hart on six chances—T. Hertl on the power play in the third and B. Bowman with a rebound late, both off the rush. Hart let in 1.58 more goals than his workload should have allowed.
Vegas was lethal off the rush—two goals on 31 rush chances. Anaheim matched that with two goals on 20 rush chances, and crashed the net hard enough to generate five rebound opportunities. That finishing, whether luck or craft, was the difference. Vegas held 60% of shot attempts (30–20) but couldn't convert. The Golden Knights owned the play every way—and still nearly tied it.
The Ducks' steal came against the run of play—a 41% expected-goals night where perfect positioning and execution turned Vegas's dominance into a loss. The Golden Knights will remember those six high-danger chances. Anaheim didn't care: they took the points.
Three Stars
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Ducks steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play
The Golden Knights deserved better.
The board read ANA 4, VGK 3. The chances read ANA 2.4, VGK 3.5.
The Ducks scored 1.6 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.
B. Sennecke makes it 1–0.
The Golden Knights went 0 for 6 from the slot.
Ducks steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownWrist shot from 17 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past C. Hart. 6s after a VGK block. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: J. Caulfield, J. LaCombe, J. Malott, T. Mitchell, T. Washe · against N. Dowd, I. Barbashev, N. Hanifin, J. Lauzon, M. Gatcomb
Tip-in from 22 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past C. Hart. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: F. Vatrano, R. Poehling, N. Nesterenko, T. Hinds, N. Warren · against T. Hertl, V. Olofsson, N. Hanifin, J. Lauzon, T. Connelly
Deflection from 14 feet, a 10% chance, past C. Hart. 4s after an ANA faceoff win by T. Washe. Win probability moved 9 points.On the ice: J. Caulfield, J. LaCombe, J. Malott, T. Luneau, T. Washe · against N. Dowd, R. Andersson, P. Wotherspoon, M. Gatcomb, B. Bowman
Snap shot from 13 feet, a 19% chance (a rebound), past C. Hart. 2s after an ANA shot by A. Greer.On the ice: A. Killorn, M. Granlund, J. LaCombe, T. Luneau, B. Sennecke · against M. Stone, I. Barbashev, R. Andersson, J. Eichel, P. Wotherspoon
Snap shot from 33 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past L. Dostal.On the ice: M. Stone, T. Hertl, S. Theodore, J. Eichel, M. Marner · against M. Granlund, P. Mintyukov, T. Mitchell, T. Washe
Wrist shot from 8 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past L. Dostal. Win probability moved 5 points.
Wrist shot from 9 feet, a 12% chance (a rebound), past L. Dostal. 3s after a VGK miss by V. Olofsson. Win probability moved 9 points.
score reads ANA–VGK
VGK went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.34 expected goals — 1.3 left on the table.
ANA finished +1.6 against expected, VGK -0.5.
Wrist shots carried the volume: ANA went 1-for-11, VGK 2-for-22. ANA scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: T. Hertl (VGK), 17:23 of ice, 1-0, 80% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. CarlssonC | 17:43 | 1-1 | 1 | 0.20 | 59 | 1/0 | 1.91 | 6.46 | A+ |
| A. GreerL | 13:24 | 0-1 | 4 | 0.41 | 55 | 0/0 | 1.25 | 5.60 | A |
| A. KillornL | 15:14 | 1-0 | 2 | 0.05 | 78 | 0/0 | 1.02 | 4.04 | B |
| B. SenneckeR | 18:05 | 1-0 | 1 | 0.14 | 76 | 0/0 | 1.08 | 3.57 | B |
| C. GauthierL | 17:51 | 0-1 | 5 | 0.74 | 59 | 0/2 | 1.07 | 3.60 | B |
| J. MalottL | 10:39 | 1-0 | 1 | 0.10 | 39 | 0/0 | 0.83 | 4.70 | B |
| T. LuneauD | 26:58 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.02 | 55 | 1/0 | 1.06 | 2.36 | B |
| J. LaCombeD | 29:37 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.37 | 57 | 0/0 | 1.01 | 2.05 | B |
| N. WarrenD | 9:33 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 30 | 0/0 | 0.57 | 3.58 | C |
| T. WasheC | 16:03 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.00 | 21 | 0/0 | 0.49 | 1.83 | C |
| M. GranlundC | 18:39 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.04 | 46 | 0/0 | 0.51 | 1.65 | C |
| R. PoehlingC | 14:03 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.17 | 54 | 0/0 | 0.26 | 1.11 | C |
| N. NesterenkoC | 11:49 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.03 | 54 | 0/0 | 0.03 | 0.14 | D |
| F. VatranoR | 10:34 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 49 | 0/0 | -0.01 | -0.03 | D |
| T. HindsD | 9:15 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 49 | 0/0 | -0.01 | -0.03 | D |
| J. CaulfieldR | 13:17 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 42 | 0/0 | -0.06 | -0.27 | D |
| T. MitchellD | 20:38 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 41 | 0/0 | -0.13 | -0.36 | F |
| P. MintyukovD | 21:09 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.14 | 33 | 0/0 | -0.14 | -0.40 | F |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. HertlC | 17:23 | 1-0 | 5 | 1.00 | 80 | 0/0 | 1.90 | 6.56 | A+ |
| J. EichelC | 22:07 | 0-2 | 2 | 0.07 | 54 | 1/0 | 1.60 | 4.34 | A+ |
| S. TheodoreD | 24:40 | 1-0 | 4 | 0.24 | 69 | 0/0 | 1.60 | 3.89 | A |
| B. HowdenC | 14:58 | 0-1 | 3 | 0.59 | 53 | 1/0 | 1.29 | 5.16 | A |
| B. BowmanR | 12:02 | 1-0 | 3 | 0.30 | 48 | 0/0 | 1.05 | 5.22 | A |
| V. OlofssonL | 13:13 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.17 | 64 | 0/0 | 0.99 | 4.49 | A |
| M. MarnerR | 22:22 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.07 | 66 | 0/0 | 1.07 | 2.86 | B |
| B. McNabbD | 17:57 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.02 | 53 | 0/0 | 0.74 | 2.48 | C |
| W. KarlssonC | 20:13 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.20 | 66 | 0/0 | 0.40 | 1.17 | C |
| M. StoneR | 20:39 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 57 | 0/0 | 0.17 | 0.51 | C |
| T. ConnellyL | 10:30 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.06 | 60 | 0/0 | 0.10 | 0.57 | C |
| R. AnderssonD | 19:14 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.17 | 52 | 0/1 | 0.07 | 0.22 | D |
| N. DowdC | 8:24 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.20 | 39 | 0/0 | 0.01 | 0.10 | D |
| P. WotherspoonD | 15:39 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 46 | 0/0 | 0.01 | 0.05 | D |
| M. GatcombC | 7:33 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.01 | 39 | 0/0 | -0.01 | -0.05 | D |
| N. HanifinD | 19:34 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.03 | 23 | 0/0 | -0.10 | -0.31 | F |
| J. LauzonD | 16:49 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.08 | 20 | 0/0 | -0.11 | -0.38 | F |
| I. BarbashevL | 15:03 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.24 | 5 | 0/1 | -0.25 | -1.01 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, ANA: N. Jensen, S. Colangelo, N. Klepov. Scratched, VGK: D. Coghlan, R. Lavoie. Referees Thomas John Luxmore and Stephen Hiff; linesmen Jonny Murray and Dan Kelly.
ANA Created 2.42 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.37 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.51 xG).
VGK Created 3.46 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.34 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.14 xG).
ANA Allowed 3.46 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.34 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.14 xG).
VGK Allowed 2.42 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.37 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.51 xG).
ANA Rush shots 20–31, rush xG 1.51–3.14 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
VGK Rush shots 31–20, rush xG 3.14–1.51 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
ANA 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.32 PP xG.
VGK 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.66 PP xG.
ANA +0.46 goals saved above expected on 30 shots against.
VGK -1.58 goals saved above expected on 20 shots against.
ANA Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
VGK Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
ANA Finishing +1.58 goals vs xG plus +0.46 GSAx of save luck = +2.04 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
VGK Finishing -0.46 goals vs xG plus -1.58 GSAx of save luck = -2.04 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
Gave up 31 rush shots worth 3.14 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
2 goals on 31 rush shots worth 3.14 xG.
The Ducks took it 4-3 with only 41% of expected goals (2.42–3.46).
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 1.51 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
0-for-6 on high-danger chances worth 1.34 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.
2 goals on 20 rush shots worth 1.51 xG.
Each club shoots toward its own end — ANA left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
Vegas is favored to edge Anaheim 3.0 to 3.5. The Golden Knights carry 57% win probability, built on rest: the Ducks arrive after five days off; Vegas has only two. That margin compounds in third periods when legs tire.
Vegas has controlled play at 5-on-5 this season. They've generated 66.4% of expected goals, a rate signaling elite offensive generation. The team's 54.7% share of shot attempts confirms it: Vegas spends more time with the puck outside even score. Vegas's 1.006 puck luck factor shows they've caught few early bounces; the early season hasn't inflated their totals.
L. Dostal starts for the Ducks. C. Hart takes the crease for Vegas, where he's saved 0.2 more goals than expected through one game. His 92.3% save percentage backs the early read.
Both offenses hunt the slot. Anaheim has four goals from that zone on 30 attempts (13%). Vegas has seven on 49 attempts (14%). Whoever controls the slot likely controls the scoreboard.
Vegas's edge is narrow but consistent: rest, efficiency, and a marginal goaltending advantage align.
VGK by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score ANA 3.0–3.5 VGK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
The Ducks come in on 5 days of rest; the other side on 2.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Their most productive scoring zone over last 5 games.
Most goals from slot (4G on 30 shots, 13%) — deny that lane
Their most productive scoring zone over last 5 games.
Most goals from slot (7G on 49 shots, 14%) — deny that lane
L. Dostal stopped just 70.0% in his last start.
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.