TACTICAL
The Blues own the underlying play
The Blues own the underlying play — 45.8% 5v5 xG vs 36.8%.
Preview · SJS at STL
The Blues are the model's lean over the Sharks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 8
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 8, 9:43 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a SJS 2.9 - 3.2 STL game with the Blues at 56% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Blues own the underlying play . The Blues own the underlying play — 45.8% 5v5 xG vs 36.8%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 52.9% . The Blues drive Corsi at 52.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie Weakness: Blues. Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | SJS | STL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 36.8% | 45.8% |
| Corsi% | 39.8% | 52.9% |
| PDO | 0.946 | 0.951 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Blues own the underlying play — 45.8% 5v5 xG vs 36.8%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 52.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Blues' PDO is 0.951 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.946 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: Y. Askarov (-1.1 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.2% SV) vs J. Hofer (+3.7 GSAx in 2 GP, 95.5% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
SJS
- Most goals from slot (8G on 38 shots, 21%) — deny that lane
STL
- Their goalie (Joel Hofer) leaks HD — 62.5% HD SV. Get to the slot.
- Most goals from slot (3G on 41 shots, 7%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
STL 56%
56%
STL
Model favorite
44%
56%
SJS50STL
STL by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SJS 2.9–3.2 STL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →STL
36.8%45.8%
39.8%52.9%
2.252.59
3.873.06
3.002.33
4.003.33
0.9460.951
STL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.946 vs 0.951) says STL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 3
SJS
2-1-0
-3 GD · 2d rest
STL
1-2-0
-3 GD · 1d rest
0.946
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.951
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Blues drive Corsi at 52.9%
The Blues drive Corsi at 52.9% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALSTL
Goalie Weakness: Blues
Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Their goalie (Joel Hofer) leaks HD — 62.5% HD SV. Get to the slot.
WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.951 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Blues own the underlying play — 45.8% 5v5 xG vs 36.8%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 52.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blues' PDO is 0.951 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.946 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Blues own the underlying play — 45.8% 5v5 xG vs 36.8%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 52.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: Y. Askarov (-1.1 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.2% SV) vs J. Hofer (+3.7 GSAx in 2 GP, 95.5% SV).
- The Blues' PDO is 0.951 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SJS
vs DAL · Mon, Oct 5
Expected in goal
Y. Askarov
2 days rest.808 last start59:49 played
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith18:28
- T. Dellandrea14:20
- A. Wennberg17:39
- B. Goodrow13:14
- M. Marchment16:12
- I. Stenberg13:45
- K. Sherwood15:02
- C. Graf12:42
- Z. Ostapchuk11:35
- T. Toffoli14:05
- M. Misa15:22
- I. Chernyshov15:03
Defence · 6
- S. Dickinson16:28
- M. Kesselring20:50
- D. Orlov19:19
- D. Nurse22:16
- L. Cagnoni19:01
- J. Trouba18:50
STL
vs CHI · Tue, Oct 6
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
1 day rest.895 last start58:14 played
Backup Jordan Binnington · -3.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- D. Dvorsky10:50
- R. Thomas20:31
- J. Snuggerud18:58
- P. Suter13:18
- J. Berggren15:48
- R. Johnston07:15
- J. Neighbours15:15
- D. Dube10:12
- C. McMichael17:53
- D. Holloway16:03
- M. McTavish17:20
- P. Buchnevich17:43
Defence · 6
- T. Lindstein14:49
- P. Broberg22:25
- C. Fowler23:05
- B. Carlo17:58
- A. Jiricek18:12
- C. Parayko20:11
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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