TACTICAL
The Red Wings own the underlying play
The Red Wings own the underlying play — 51.6% 5v5 xG vs 45.2%.
Preview · SEA at DET
The Red Wings are the model's lean over the Kraken — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanFri, Oct 9
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 9, 9:09 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a SEA 2.9 - 3.4 DET game with the Red Wings at 57% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Red Wings own the underlying play. The Red Wings own the underlying play — 51.6% 5v5 xG vs 45.2%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.2%. The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.2% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Red Wings. The Red Wings' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | SEA | DET |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 45.2% | 51.6% |
| Corsi% | 43.7% | 56.2% |
| PDO | 1.071 | 1.018 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 51.6% 5v5 xG vs 45.2%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Red Wings' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.071 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Daccord (+1.1 GSAx in 3 GP, 91.1% SV) vs J. Gibson (+1.2 GSAx in 3 GP, 90.3% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
SEA
- Most goals from slot (4G on 28 shots, 14%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DET 57%
58%
DET
Model favorite
42%
58%
SEA50DET
DET by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score SEA 2.9–3.4 DET; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SEA← edge
edge →DET
45.2%51.6%
43.7%56.2%
2.703.12
3.282.92
3.752.33
2.752.67
1.0711.018
DET holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.071 vs 1.018) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 3–4
SEA
2-2-0
+4 GD · 2d rest
DET
1-2-0
-1 GD · 2d rest
1.071
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.2%
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.2% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGDET
Regression watch: Red Wings
The Red Wings' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGSEA
Regression watch: Kraken
The Kraken's PDO is 1.071 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 51.6% 5v5 xG vs 45.2%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Red Wings' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.071 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 51.6% 5v5 xG vs 45.2%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 56.2% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Daccord (+1.1 GSAx in 3 GP, 91.1% SV) vs J. Gibson (+1.2 GSAx in 3 GP, 90.3% SV).
- The Red Wings' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SEA
vs VGK · Tue, Oct 6
Expected in goal
J. Daccord
2 days rest.762 last start39:53 played
J. Daccord started last game and was relieved by P. Grubauer (20:00 of it).
Backup Philipp Grubauer · +1.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eberle15:46
- C. Stephenson17:31
- M. Beniers16:21
- M. Samoskevich13:51
- J. McCann15:07
- R. Winterton12:33
- B. Catton15:35
- S. Wright14:43
- B. Meyers10:48
- B. McMann16:51
- K. Kakko14:57
- F. Gaudreau15:55
Defence · 6
- A. Larsson22:38
- C. Fleury16:03
- V. Dunn24:01
- R. Evans24:16
- R. Lindgren03:57
- B. Montour20:05
DET
vs OTT · Tue, Oct 6
Expected in goal
J. Gibson
2 days rest.880 last start59:54 played
Forwards · 11
- A. Copp18:24
- L. Raymond19:47
- M. Rasmussen20:05
- M. Brandsegg-Nygård12:37
- N. Danielson08:02
- V. Arvidsson17:20
- C. Mazur07:25
- K. Kolesar15:07
- E. Finnie18:17
- D. Larkin20:41
- A. DeBrincat18:45
Defence · 7
- B. Chiarot18:14
- A. Johansson17:00
- A. Johansson17:13
- A. Sandin-Pellikka11:27
- M. Seider24:01
- W. Wallinder09:07
- J. Faulk18:21
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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