Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 19 rush shots worth 3.10 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

Anaheim beat Winnipeg 5-1 and didn't need many chances to prove it. The Ducks were clinical in the slot, relentless off the rush, and suffocating in transition. Winnipeg never got traction.
Winnipeg held 48% of shot attempts, but Anaheim's chance quality was so far superior that volume didn't matter. The Ducks shot at 0.093 expected goals per attempt to Winnipeg's 0.041, and finished with 62% of expected goals to Winnipeg's 38%.
L. Dostal's defense was razor-sharp. He went 15 for 16 at a 0.938 save percentage, stopping 1.2 goals above expected. C. Stevenson couldn't keep up, going 12 for 16 at a 0.750 save percentage.
The Ducks' edge lived in the danger zones. They were 4–7 on high-danger chances (57%) and turned rush pressure into three goals on 19 rush attempts. Winnipeg couldn't generate the same looks.
Three Stars
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Ducks run the Jets off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Ducks earned this one.
The board read ANA 5, WPG 1. The chances read ANA 3.6, WPG 2.2.
Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.
J. Caulfield makes it 1–0.
The Ducks buried 4 of 7 high-danger looks.
Ducks run the Jets off the ice on the underlying numbers
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownSnap shot from 10 feet, a 20% chance (a rebound), past C. Stevenson. 3s after an ANA shot by J. Malott. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: M. Granlund, N. Nesterenko, T. Hinds, C. Gauthier, T. Luneau · against M. Scheifele, H. Fleury, K. Connor, N. Pionk, C. Perfetti
Snap shot from 17 feet, a 23% chance (off the rush), past C. Stevenson. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: J. LaCombe, S. Colangelo, T. Hinds, L. Carlsson, B. Sennecke · against D. DeMelo, A. Lowry, D. Samberg, A. Iafallo, I. Rosen
Snap shot from 9 feet, a 26% chance (off the rush), past C. Stevenson. 10s after a WPG giveaway by M. Scheifele. Win probability moved 6 points.On the ice: S. Colangelo, P. Mintyukov, L. Carlsson, T. Mitchell, B. Sennecke · against D. DeMelo, A. Lowry, D. Samberg, A. Iafallo, I. Rosen
Wrist shot from 18 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past L. Dostal.On the ice: A. Lowry, M. Ferraro, A. Iafallo, N. Pionk, I. Rosen · against M. Granlund, N. Nesterenko, C. Gauthier, P. Mintyukov, T. Mitchell
Wrist shot from 51 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past C. Stevenson.On the ice: M. Granlund, N. Nesterenko, T. Hinds, C. Gauthier, T. Luneau · against D. DeMelo, G. Vilardi, D. Samberg, M. Barron, V. Björck
Wrist shot from 12 feet, a 100% chance, a near-certain one (off the rush). 5s after an ANA block.
score reads ANA–WPG
WPG went 0-for-15 from medium danger on 1.68 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.
ANA finished +1.4 against expected, WPG -1.2.
Wrist shots carried the volume: ANA went 2-for-8, WPG 1-for-15. ANA scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: J. Malott (ANA), 9:26 of ice, 0-2, 76% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. MalottL | 9:26 | 0-2 | 1 | 0.15 | 76 | 1/0 | 1.83 | 11.67 | A+ |
| J. CaulfieldR | 9:34 | 1-1 | 3 | 0.32 | 76 | 0/0 | 1.79 | 11.21 | A+ |
| B. SenneckeR | 17:03 | 0-2 | 0 | 0.23 | 70 | 0/1 | 1.64 | 5.78 | A+ |
| T. WasheC | 15:14 | 1-1 | 1 | 0.29 | 46 | 0/0 | 1.52 | 6.00 | A |
| M. GranlundC | 16:31 | 1-1 | 2 | 0.01 | 44 | 0/0 | 1.42 | 5.16 | A |
| S. ColangeloR | 10:35 | 1-0 | 1 | 0.26 | 72 | 0/0 | 1.08 | 6.13 | A |
| N. NesterenkoC | 11:58 | 1-0 | 2 | 1.06 | 29 | 0/0 | 1.02 | 5.10 | A |
| J. LaCombeD | 27:02 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.10 | 68 | 0/0 | 1.02 | 2.25 | B |
| N. WarrenD | 24:12 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 55 | 0/0 | 0.88 | 2.17 | B |
| A. GreerL | 12:33 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.26 | 81 | 0/0 | 0.55 | 2.63 | B |
| L. CarlssonC | 16:25 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.04 | 78 | 0/0 | 0.54 | 1.98 | B |
| T. HindsD | 13:48 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 67 | 0/0 | 0.23 | 1.02 | C |
| A. KillornL | 18:42 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.02 | 61 | 0/0 | 0.23 | 0.74 | C |
| C. GauthierL | 18:20 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.34 | 47 | 0/0 | 0.21 | 0.70 | C |
| P. MintyukovD | 21:24 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.20 | 39 | 0/0 | 0.15 | 0.43 | D |
| R. PoehlingC | 17:20 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.33 | 62 | 0/2 | 0.04 | 0.14 | D |
| T. LuneauD | 14:22 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 43 | 0/0 | -0.03 | -0.12 | D |
| T. MitchellD | 17:31 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 51 | 1/2 | -0.04 | -0.14 | D |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. ConnorL | 23:56 | 1-0 | 3 | 0.50 | 54 | 0/0 | 1.26 | 3.16 | A |
| M. ScheifeleC | 22:18 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.24 | 64 | 0/0 | 1.08 | 2.90 | B |
| G. VilardiC | 18:36 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.48 | 62 | 1/0 | 0.56 | 1.82 | B |
| I. RosenR | 14:56 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.21 | 46 | 1/0 | 0.40 | 1.59 | B |
| C. PerfettiC | 22:20 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.06 | 64 | 1/0 | 0.41 | 1.10 | C |
| M. FerraroD | 19:58 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.03 | 54 | 0/0 | 0.33 | 1.00 | C |
| D. DeMeloD | 21:40 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 30 | 0/0 | 0.25 | 0.69 | C |
| M. BarronC | 14:12 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.17 | 50 | 0/0 | 0.20 | 0.82 | C |
| N. PionkD | 25:02 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 56 | 0/0 | 0.17 | 0.41 | C |
| A. LowryC | 13:28 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.17 | 44 | 2/1 | 0.13 | 0.58 | D |
| D. SambergD | 22:06 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.07 | 27 | 0/0 | 0.07 | 0.19 | D |
| T. BauerD | 8:24 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 33 | 0/0 | -0.10 | -0.75 | D |
| V. BjörckC | 17:33 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 27 | 0/0 | -0.17 | -0.58 | D |
| A. IafalloL | 14:43 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 36 | 0/0 | -0.20 | -0.80 | F |
| H. FleuryD | 15:26 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.05 | 19 | 0/0 | -0.21 | -0.81 | F |
| C. KoepkeL | 7:32 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 0/0 | -0.16 | -1.27 | F |
| V. NamestnikovC | 11:15 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.21 | 2 | 0/0 | -0.22 | -1.19 | F |
| B. LambertC | 8:27 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 0/1 | -0.32 | -2.24 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, ANA: N. Jensen, F. Vatrano, N. Klepov. Scratched, WPG: N. Niederreiter, J. Morrissey, J. St. Ivany. Referees Wes McCauley and Jake Brenk; linesmen Trent Knorr and Jesse Marquis.
ANA Created 3.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (2.41 xG) and 19 rush shots (3.10 xG).
WPG Created 2.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.20 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.86 xG).
ANA Allowed 2.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.20 xG) and 20 rush shots (1.86 xG).
WPG Allowed 3.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (2.41 xG) and 19 rush shots (3.10 xG).
ANA Rush shots 19–20, rush xG 3.10–1.86 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
WPG Rush shots 20–19, rush xG 1.86–3.10 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
ANA 0-for-1 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.34 PP xG.
WPG 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.62 PP xG.
ANA +1.18 goals saved above expected on 16 shots against.
WPG -0.37 goals saved above expected on 16 shots against.
ANA Took 5 penalties for 13 PIM vs 2 for 7 on the other side.
WPG Took 2 penalties for 7 PIM vs 5 for 13 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
ANA Finishing +1.37 goals vs xG plus +1.18 GSAx of save luck = +2.55 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
WPG Finishing -1.18 goals vs xG plus -0.37 GSAx of save luck = -1.55 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
Gave up 19 rush shots worth 3.10 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
3 goals on 19 rush shots worth 3.10 xG.
Single-game PDO of 0.891 — the bounces went against them tonight.
Single-game PDO of 1.109 — the bounces went their way tonight.
4 goals on 7 high-danger shots (57% conversion on 2.41 xG).
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 1.86 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Each club shoots toward its own end — ANA left, WPG right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
The model projects a ANA 3.2 - 3.4 WPG game with the Jets at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
| Metric | ANA | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 44.9% | 51.5% |
| Corsi% | 48.6% | 44.9% |
| PDO | 0.967 | 1.017 |
ANA
WPG
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
WPG by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score ANA 3.2–3.4 WPG; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
WPG holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.967 vs 1.017) says WPG has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
The Jets own the underlying play — 51.5% 5v5 xG vs 44.9%.
The Ducks drive Corsi at 48.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Their goalie (Stuart Skinner) leaks HD — 71.4% HD SV. Get to the slot.
The Jets' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.