WARNINGSJS
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.55 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
The verdict · earned
The Oilers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
EDM 3 · SJS 1
◆ By the ModelOct 10, 6:40 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Edmonton beat San Jose 3-1, and the scorelines hide how one-sided the chances were. The Oilers scored three times off the rush, and the Sharks' only goal came late, in the third.
The biggest disagreement with the scoreboard belongs to San Jose. The Sharks finished 0.81 goals below their expected goals, the model's estimate of how many goals a team's chances should have produced. Their chances were worth more than the single goal they got.
Edmonton's edge was real too. At even strength the Oilers took 68% of expected goals, the clearest sign of who was creating better chances. Shot volume tells a different story. San Jose held 50% of shot attempts, so the Sharks were not outworked. They were out-chanced.
M. Ekholm opened the scoring with a slap shot from 49 feet. The model rated that chance at 3%, a long shot that landed. V. Podkolzin made it 2-0 early in the third. A. Formenton's backhander from 8 feet put Edmonton up 3-0 in the opening minutes of the period, and the model rated that one at 20%.
Macklin Celebrini's wrist shot from 33 feet made it 3-1 for San Jose. It came 10 seconds after a takeaway by M. Misa, and it was the turning point the Sharks needed and never got.
T. Jarry stopped 19 of 20 shots for Edmonton. Y. Askarov stopped 17 of 20 for San Jose, a .850 save percentage that tells you where the Sharks' margin went.
The numbers can't say whether the finishing was luck or skill, or what was said in the room. That part belongs to the beat, and it is worth reading.
Data: NHL play-by-play and shift charts, Backcheck xG model
The goals
- EDM 1–0, 12:37 of the first. M. Ekholm, slap shot from 49 feet, a 3% chance by the model (off the rush), past Y. Askarov. Assists: I. Howard, J. Samanski. Win probability moved 17 points.
- EDM 2–0, 03:13 of the third. V. Podkolzin, slap shot from 38 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past Y. Askarov. Assists: C. McDavid, E. Bouchard. Win probability moved 16 points.
- EDM 3–0, 05:40 of the third. A. Formenton, backhander from 8 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past Y. Askarov. Assists: M. Joseph, C. Murphy. Win probability moved 5 points.
- SJS 3–1, 11:19 of the third. M. Celebrini, wrist shot from 33 feet, a 5% chance by the model (off the rush), past T. Jarry. Assists: M. Misa. 10 seconds after a SJS takeaway by M. Misa.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.