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← Sat, Oct 10 · the slate
Breakdown · DET at MTL

Canadiens shut out the Red Wings, 1-0

Final / OTSat, Oct 10
DETDetroit Red Wings0MTLMontreal Canadiens1
The verdict · coin flip

The Canadiens won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

DET 0 · MTL 1
◆ By the ModelOct 10, 10:20 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal won 1-0 in a shootout, but Detroit made the better chances and walked away with nothing. The scoreboard says the Canadiens were the better side, and the chance data points the other way.

Expected goals is the model's estimate of how many goals a set of chances should produce. Detroit's average shot was the more dangerous one, at 0.082 expected goals per shot against 0.057 for Montreal. The Red Wings also had nine high-danger chances to the Canadiens' six. Those chances added up to 4.34 expected goals, and Detroit finished with zero.

Montreal did not finish much better. The Canadiens fell 3.36 goals short of their own expected total, so both teams wasted quality.

Montreal's real edge came in transition. Detroit gave up 38 rush shots, worth 3.67 expected goals, and none of them went in. The gaps showed up in every period.

In net, J. Fowler and D. Tarasov each stopped all 30 shots they faced. Tarasov stopped 4.4 goals more than the workload should have allowed, and Fowler's figure was nearly identical. Detroit also went 0 for 9 on high-danger chances.

The decisive moment came in the shootout, when Zachary Bolduc's snap shot from the slot settled it.

Three Stars

  • #53 M. Seider (DET), a solid two-way game in 29:33
  • #48 L. Hutson (MTL), a solid two-way game in 26:30
  • #14 N. Suzuki (MTL), a solid two-way game in 26:06

The numbers can't tell you whether the finishing was luck or skill, or what was said in the room. That part belongs to the beat reporters, and it is worth reading.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Oct 10
DET
0
MTL
1

Canadiens shut out the Red Wings, 1-0

Chances 4.3 – 4.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Canadiens took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
DET
4.34
MTL
4.36
50% of the chances50%

The board read DET 0, MTL 1. The chances read DET 4.3, MTL 4.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
−3.4
goals above expected
MTL4.36 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored
DET4.34 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Red Wings left 4.3 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. SO 00:00MTLZ. BolducPP0–0
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
DET
39 shots
0
Final
90 shots
MTL
51 shots
0
DET attackMTL attack
DET MTL Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

39
shots · 0 in
51
shots · 0 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
DETMTL
0 / 9
2.26 xG
High danger
0 / 6
1.17 xG
0 / 17
1.72 xG
Medium
0 / 27
2.72 xG
0 / 27
0.36 xG
Low
0 / 43
0.47 xG

The Red Wings went 0 for 9 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
D. Tarasov
+4.4
DET · 30/30 · 65:00
Best save · a 22% chance, snap from 16 ft · P3 00:09
A+
J. Fowler
+4.3
MTL · 30/30 · 64:46
Best save · a 51% chance, backhand from 7 ft · P4 04:05
Best skater on the ice
A+
DET
A. DeBrincat
R · impact 1.51
21:50
Ice time
0–0
G – A
1.67
Own xG
65%
xG share
Impact · top 4
A. DeBrincat1.5A+
J. Slafkovský1.5A+
C. Caufield1.3A+
N. Suzuki1.3A
Report card
DETMTL
OffenseA+A+
DefenseFF
TransitionDB+
Special teamsDF
GoaltendingA+A+
DisciplineCC
LuckCC
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why MTL won
  1. 01J. Fowler stole it
  2. 02Dangerous off the rush
  3. 03J. Fowler was perfect on high danger
Why DET lost
  1. 01Cold finishing night
  2. 02Rush defense leaked all night
  3. 03Wasted the best looks
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Canadiens shut out the Red Wings, 1-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 11 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 11–9no goals
    2ndshots 7–11no goals
      3rdshots 9–7no goals
        OTshots 3–3no goals
          SO
          1. 00:00MTLZ. Bolducpower play0–0

          score reads DET–MTL

          Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
          Process vs result

          The numbers

          XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
          4.36
          MTL chances
          Goals their shots were worth
          −3.4
          Finishing
          Goals below what those chances were worth
          1.000
          MTL puck luck
          About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
          58.9%
          Shot attempts
          Over half — they had the puck more
          Split by club

          Who controlled the game

          4.34Expected goals4.36
          MTL 50% of the chance quality
          30Shots on goal30
          9High-danger chances6
          53All attempts (Corsi)76
          Adjusted for score: DET 41% · MTL 59%
          Faceoffs · MTL won71%off56%neu40%def
          Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
          How the game was won

          The danger ladder

          shotsgoalsexpected
          High dangerslot & crease
          DET0 / 9 · 2.26 xG
          MTL0 / 6 · 1.17 xG
          Medium dangermid-range
          DET0 / 17 · 1.72 xG
          MTL0 / 27 · 2.72 xG
          Low dangerperimeter & point
          DET0 / 27 · 0.36 xG
          MTL0 / 43 · 0.47 xG

          MTL went 0-for-27 from medium danger on 2.72 expected goals — 2.7 left on the table.

          Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
          The luck layer

          Finishing vs expected

          expectedactual
          DET
          0 G · 4.34 xG · -4.3
          MTL
          1 G · 4.36 xG · -3.4
          012345

          DET finished -4.3 against expected, MTL -3.4.

          Source · Backcheck xG model
          Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
          What they shot — and what went in

          Shot diet

          goalsshots
          DET
          SNAP0/29
          SLAP0/2
          BACKHAND0/5
          TIP IN0/2
          DEFLECTED0/1
          WRIST0/1
          BAT0/0
          OTHER0/13
          MTL
          SNAP0/34
          SLAP0/7
          BACKHAND0/3
          TIP IN0/5
          DEFLECTED0/1
          WRIST0/0
          BAT0/1
          OTHER0/25
          DET
          MTL
          Off the rush
          0 G on 25
          3.12 xG
          0 G on 38
          3.67 xG
          Off rebounds
          0 G on 3
          0.34 xG
          0 G on 2
          0.20 xG

          Snap shots carried the volume: DET went 0-for-29, MTL 0-for-34.

          Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
          New to these numbers?

          Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

          The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

          xG
          Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
          HD
          High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
          Corsi
          Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
          Adj.
          Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
          GSAx
          Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
          PDO
          Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
          Shot by shot

          In the net

          Graded on goals saved above expected
          D. Tarasov
          DET · 30/30 · 1.000
          started · 65:00 · OT loss
          +4.4
          saved above expected
          A+
          the night
          Attempts faced
          51
          Avg chance faced
          8.5%
          Stopped vs expected
          1.000 vs 0.915
          Rebounds allowed
          2
          By dangerG/attxGsaved
          High danger0/61.2+1.2
          Medium0/272.7+2.7
          Low0/180.5+0.5
          Shorthanded0/101.1+1.1
          Tips & deflections0/60.4+0.4
          The save
          22% chance stopped, a snap from 16 ft · P3 00:09

          A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

          J. Fowler
          MTL · 30/30 · 1.000
          started · 64:46 · win
          +4.3
          saved above expected
          A+
          the night
          Attempts faced
          40
          Avg chance faced
          10.8%
          Stopped vs expected
          1.000 vs 0.892
          Rebounds allowed
          3
          By dangerG/attxGsaved
          High danger0/92.3+2.3
          Medium0/171.7+1.7
          Low0/140.4+0.4
          Shorthanded0/131.5+1.5
          Tips & deflections0/30.3+0.3
          The save
          51% chance stopped, a backhand from 7 ft · P4 04:05

          A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

          Every skater who dressed

          Who played

          Rated on what they produced and how fast

          Best skater on the ice by our rating: A. DeBrincat (DET), 21:50 of ice, 0-0, 65% of the expected goals while he was out.

          DET18 skaters
          SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
          A. DeBrincatR21:500-065A+
          V. ArvidssonL19:250-079A
          D. LarkinC22:400-069A
          L. RaymondL21:110-076A
          M. SeiderD29:330-057B
          A. CoppC19:180-040C
          M. Brandsegg-NygårdR15:070-053C
          A. JohanssonD15:570-044C
          E. FinnieC17:250-040C
          A. Sandin-PellikkaD8:500-030C
          M. RasmussenC18:060-040C
          J. FaulkD18:150-046D
          A. EnglundD14:180-028D
          A. JohanssonD10:420-036D
          B. ChiarotD20:510-027D
          S. DriesC9:340-00F
          N. DanielsonC9:030-00F
          K. KolesarR14:550-022F
          MTL18 skaters
          SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
          J. SlafkovskýL22:100-083A+
          C. CaufieldR21:170-074A+
          N. SuzukiC26:060-080A
          L. HutsonD26:300-071A
          C. KreiderL17:210-071B
          A. EngstromD6:540-065B
          Z. BolducR15:480-069B
          K. GuhleD15:350-048B
          A. XhekajD7:300-066B
          A. TexierL18:040-045B
          P. DanaultC17:230-055C
          A. CarrierD18:230-038C
          M. MathesonD23:010-030D
          J. AndersonR14:540-040D
          N. DobsonD19:540-037D
          K. DachC7:350-033D
          J. EvansC11:530-022F
          A. NewhookC16:560-027F

          xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

          Scratched, DET: J. Bernard-Docker, W. Wallinder, C. Mazur. Scratched, MTL: F. Xhekaj. Referees Chris Rooney and Garrett Rank; linesmen Bevan Mills and Ryan Jackson.

          Graded against a league-average game

          Report card

          Seven dimensions · A+ to F
          DimensionDETMTL
          Offense
          ▸Basis

          DET Created 4.34 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 9 high-danger shots (2.26 xG) and 25 rush shots (3.12 xG).

          MTL Created 4.36 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 38 rush shots (3.67 xG).

          A+
          100
          A+
          100
          Defense
          ▸Basis

          DET Allowed 4.36 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 38 rush shots (3.67 xG).

          MTL Allowed 4.34 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 9 high-danger shots (2.26 xG) and 25 rush shots (3.12 xG).

          F
          46
          F
          44
          Transition
          ▸Basis

          DET Rush shots 25–38, rush xG 3.12–3.67 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

          MTL Rush shots 38–25, rush xG 3.67–3.12 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

          D
          63
          B+
          87
          Special teams
          ▸Basis

          DET 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.47 PP xG.

          MTL 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.93 PP xG.

          D
          63
          F
          57
          Goaltending
          ▸Basis

          DET +4.36 goals saved above expected on 30 shots against.

          MTL +4.34 goals saved above expected on 30 shots against.

          A+
          100
          A+
          100
          Discipline
          ▸Basis

          DET Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

          MTL Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

          C
          75
          C
          75
          Luck

          Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

          ▸Basis

          DET Finishing -4.34 goals vs xG plus +4.36 GSAx of save luck = +0.02 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

          MTL Finishing -4.36 goals vs xG plus +4.34 GSAx of save luck = -0.02 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

          C
          75
          C
          75
          Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
          What the model flagged
          STRENGTHDET

          D. Tarasov stole it

          D. Tarasov stopped 30 of 30 (1.000) — +4.36 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.

          STRENGTHMTL

          J. Fowler stole it

          J. Fowler stopped 30 of 30 (1.000) — +4.34 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.

          LUCKMTL

          Cold finishing night

          Scored 1 on 4.36 xG — -4.36 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

          LUCKDET

          Cold finishing night

          Scored 0 on 4.34 xG — -4.34 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

          WARNINGDET

          Rush defense leaked all night

          Gave up 38 rush shots worth 3.67 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

          Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

          STRENGTHMTL

          Dangerous off the rush

          0 goals on 38 rush shots worth 3.67 xG.

          90 shots · press play to watch the game back

          Where the shots came from

          NHL play-by-play coordinates
          DET
          39 shots
          0
          Final
          90 shots
          MTL
          51 shots
          0
          DET attackMTL attack
          DET MTL Goal

          Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

          Each club shoots toward its own end — DET left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

          Ranked from the box score

          Three stars

          Points first
          Three stars · computed, not voted
          M. Seider
          #53 · D · DET
          0 G · 0 A · 0 SOG · 29:33 on ice
          L. Hutson
          #48 · D · MTL
          0 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 26:30 on ice
          N. Suzuki
          #14 · C · MTL
          0 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 26:06 on ice
          Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
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          Where to next

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