WARNINGPHI
D. Vladar on a back-to-back
D. Vladar projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · CAR at PHI
The Hurricanes are the model's lean over the Flyers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSun, Oct 11
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 11, 9:01 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a CAR 3.5 - 2.8 PHI game with the Hurricanes at 60% win probability.
Keys to the game
- D. Vladar on a back-to-back. D. Vladar projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
- B. Bussi on a back-to-back. B. Bussi projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play . The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.7% 5v5 xG vs 34.3%.
Form Check
- The Hurricanes are the hotter team by points pace (4-1-1 over their 6 games so far).
- The Flyers are underwater at -17 goal differential over their 6 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | CAR | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 63.7% | 34.3% |
| Corsi% | 59.0% | 37.1% |
| PDO | 0.970 | 0.955 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.7% 5v5 xG vs 34.3%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.955 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: B. Bussi (-3.3 GSAx in 4 GP, 87.1% SV) vs D. Vladar (-3.7 GSAx in 3 GP, 85.7% SV).
- D. Vladar is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- B. Bussi is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 60%
60%
CAR
Model favorite
60%
40%
CAR50PHI
CAR by 20 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CAR 3.5–2.8 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CAR← edge
edge →PHI
63.7%34.3%
59.0%37.1%
4.022.05
2.293.93
3.831.17
2.674.00
0.9700.955
CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.970 vs 0.955) says CAR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6
CAR
4-1-1
+7 GD · 0d rest
PHI
0-4-2
-17 GD · 0d rest
0.970
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.955
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGCAR
B. Bussi on a back-to-back
B. Bussi projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.7% 5v5 xG vs 34.3%.
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.0%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.7% 5v5 xG vs 34.3%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.955 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.7% 5v5 xG vs 34.3%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: B. Bussi (-3.3 GSAx in 4 GP, 87.1% SV) vs D. Vladar (-3.7 GSAx in 3 GP, 85.7% SV).
- D. Vladar is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Hurricanes are the hotter team by points pace (4-1-1 over their 6 games so far).
- The Flyers are underwater at -17 goal differential over their 6 games so far.
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.955 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CAR
vs CHI · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
B. Bussi
back-to-back.923 last start59:17 played
Backup Pyotr Kochetkov · +0.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- J. Staal14:12
- S. Aho19:37
- L. Stankoven16:12
- N. Ehlers13:04
- W. Carrier13:51
- A. Svechnikov15:46
- J. Martinook12:52
- E. Robinson15:27
- J. Blake15:54
- T. Hall14:04
- M. Jankowski13:37
- J. Kotkaniemi14:17
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere17:17
- J. Chatfield20:52
- M. Reilly16:19
- K. Miller21:49
- S. Walker22:36
- J. Slavin18:57
PHI
vs BOS · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
D. Vladar
back-to-back.844 last start60:00 played
Backup Joseph Woll · +2.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- G. Wilson11:46
- S. Couturier16:09
- C. Dvorak17:25
- N. Cates10:57
- M. Michkov15:35
- T. Zegras15:53
- N. Acciari12:44
- M. Bunting13:36
- T. Foerster16:15
- O. Tippett17:18
- D. Barkey13:51
- P. Martone15:18
Defence · 6
- H. Grans12:26
- D.Jiricek17:46
- T. Sanheim28:51
- J. Drysdale24:58
- N. Seeler20:19
- S. Benoit13:37
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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