TACTICAL
The Mammoth own the underlying play
The Mammoth own the underlying play — 58.9% 5v5 xG vs 55.6%.
Preview · UTA at EDM
Mammoth at Oilers: too close to call
The model's leanThu, Oct 15
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 15, 9:13 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a UTA 3.2 - 3.3 EDM game with the Oilers at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Mammoth own the underlying play . The Mammoth own the underlying play — 58.9% 5v5 xG vs 55.6%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.4% . The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Oilers. The Oilers' PDO is 1.091 — running hot, expect some regression.
Form Check
- The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (5-0-1 over their 6 games so far).
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | UTA | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 58.9% | 55.6% |
| Corsi% | 57.4% | 47.8% |
| PDO | 1.012 | 1.091 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 58.9% 5v5 xG vs 55.6%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.091 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: K. Vejmelka (+0.9 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.5% SV) vs D. Levi (-0.6 GSAx in 4 GP, 90.3% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
EDM 51%
51%
EDM
Model favorite
49%
51%
UTA50EDM
EDM by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score UTA 3.2–3.3 EDM; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
UTA← edge
edge →EDM
58.9%55.6%
57.4%47.8%
4.033.12
2.812.49
3.864.83
2.713.00
1.0121.091
UTA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.012 vs 1.091) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6–7
UTA
5-2-0
+8 GD · 1d rest
EDM
5-0-1
+11 GD · 1d rest
1.012
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.091
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.4%
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.4% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.091 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 51%–49% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 58.9% 5v5 xG vs 55.6%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.091 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 58.9% 5v5 xG vs 55.6%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: K. Vejmelka (+0.9 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.5% SV) vs D. Levi (-0.6 GSAx in 4 GP, 90.3% SV).
- The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (5-0-1 over their 6 games so far).
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.091 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
UTA
vs TOR · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
K. Vejmelka
1 day rest.846 last start59:58 played
Backup Sebastian Cossa · -0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz16:53
- C. Keller15:27
- D. Guenther15:55
- V. Trocheck16:52
- J. McBain10:24
- B. Hayton14:00
- D. But10:00
- K. Yamamoto15:19
- L. Crouse14:56
- A. Lee13:15
- K. Stenlund15:13
- L. Cooley18:47
Defence · 6
- J. Marino20:55
- A. Peeke15:29
- D. Simashev12:18
- M. Weegar22:14
- N. Schmidt20:27
- M. Sergachev23:39
EDM
vs LAK · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
D. Levi
1 day rest.975 last start59:38 played
Backup Tristan Jarry · -3.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic07:27
- J. Dickinson13:21
- F. Hallander10:41
- M. Joseph16:52
- A. Formenton17:10
- L. Draisaitl20:11
- K. Kapanen17:46
- O. Michaels16:50
- I. Howard07:46
- J. Samanski06:23
- V. Podkolzin18:25
- C. McDavid21:37
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard26:24
- C. Murphy24:28
- R. Shea22:37
- M. Ekholm20:59
- T. Emberson12:26
- S. Mukhamadullin10:59
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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