WARNINGMIN
Regression watch: Wild
The Wild's PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Preview · STL at MIN
Blues at Wild: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanThu, Oct 15
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 15, 9:13 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a STL 3.0 - 3.2 MIN game with the Wild at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- Regression watch: Wild. The Wild's PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- A genuine coin flip. Win probability splits 54%–46% — margins decide this one.
- C. Pickard was beatable last time out. C. Pickard stopped just 80.0% in his last start.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | STL | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 53.7% | 52.1% |
| Corsi% | 52.4% | 49.8% |
| PDO | 0.998 | 0.984 |
Regression Watch
- The Wild's PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Hofer (+2.8 GSAx in 4 GP, 92.1% SV) vs C. Pickard (-2.2 GSAx in 1 GP, 80.0% SV).
- J. Hofer has the GSAx edge — 5.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MIN 54%
54%
MIN
Model favorite
46%
54%
STL50MIN
MIN by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score STL 3.0–3.2 MIN; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
STL← edge
edge →MIN
53.7%52.1%
52.4%49.8%
2.943.40
2.533.12
3.503.00
3.002.29
0.9980.984
STL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.998 vs 0.984) says STL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6–7
STL
3-2-1
+3 GD · 1d rest
MIN
4-2-1
+5 GD · 1d rest
0.998
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.984
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 54%–46% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALMIN
C. Pickard was beatable last time out
C. Pickard stopped just 80.0% in his last start.
Regression watch
- The Wild's PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: J. Hofer (+2.8 GSAx in 4 GP, 92.1% SV) vs C. Pickard (-2.2 GSAx in 1 GP, 80.0% SV).
- J. Hofer has the GSAx edge — 5.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Wild's PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
STL
vs OTT · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
1 day rest.889 last start59:12 played
Backup Jordan Binnington · -4.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- D. Dvorsky16:00
- R. Thomas17:53
- J. Snuggerud15:46
- P. Suter15:21
- J. Berggren13:29
- D. Peterson08:57
- R. Johnston09:18
- J. Neighbours16:05
- C. McMichael14:24
- D. Holloway15:57
- M. McTavish15:29
- P. Buchnevich18:23
Defence · 6
- P. Broberg22:06
- C. Fowler22:15
- B. Carlo18:28
- A. Jiricek15:04
- C. Parayko19:33
- J. Barron18:28
MIN
vs WPG · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
C. Pickard
1 day rest.800 last start60:00 played
Backup Jesper Wallstedt · +6.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink14:55
- M. Boldy22:20
- Y. Trenin12:28
- J. Eriksson Ek18:16
- T. Pitlick08:13
- B. Coleman14:35
- D. Yurov14:28
- R. Hartman14:50
- M. McCarron15:14
- M. Shabanov15:06
- R. Lorenz11:03
- K. Kaprizov20:02
Defence · 6
- O. Maatta17:27
- Z. Bogosian19:50
- J. Brodin21:39
- Q. Hughes28:25
- D. Hunt12:47
- D. Spacek15:51
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going