TACTICAL
The Predators own the underlying play
The Predators own the underlying play — 45.6% 5v5 xG vs 39.3%.
Preview · SJS at NSH
The Predators are the model's lean over the Sharks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 15
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 15, 9:10 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Nashville, and the reason has less to do with the records than with how each team got there. The Predators have been the better side at five-on-five, but the results have not fully caught up to it.
The model projects a SJS 2.9 - 3.3 NSH game. That gives the Predators a 56% chance to win.
Expected goals, which weigh the quality of chances as well as their number, favor Nashville. The Predators hold 45.6% of that share at five-on-five, against San Jose's 39.3%.
San Jose has the edge in shot attempts, at 46.2% to Nashville's 43.1%. That points to territorial tilt toward the Sharks, so expect them to spend stretches pinning Nashville back.
San Jose enters underwater, with a goal differential of -7 over its six games so far.
Both teams are running cold. PDO, the luck-sensitive number behind this matchup, is 0.978 for Nashville and 0.915 for San Jose. Both are due for positive regression.
In goal, Y. Askarov has allowed more goals than his workload should have, at -2.6 goals saved above expected over five games. J. Saros sits at -1.9 over the same five games, and his save percentage is 89.7%.
If San Jose's territory turns into chances, the game tightens. If it doesn't, the model's lean toward Nashville holds.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NSH 56%
56%
NSH
Model favorite
44%
56%
SJS50NSH
NSH by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SJS 2.9–3.3 NSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →NSH
39.3%45.6%
46.2%43.1%
2.342.51
3.623.00
2.672.67
3.833.00
0.9150.978
NSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.915 vs 0.978) says NSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6
SJS
3-3-0
-7 GD · 1d rest
NSH
2-2-2
-3 GD · 1d rest
0.915
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.978
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Sharks drive Corsi at 46.2%
The Sharks drive Corsi at 46.2% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGNSH
Regression watch: Predators
The Predators' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.915 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Predators own the underlying play — 45.6% 5v5 xG vs 39.3%.
- The Sharks drive Corsi at 46.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Predators' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.915 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Predators own the underlying play — 45.6% 5v5 xG vs 39.3%.
- The Sharks drive Corsi at 46.2% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: Y. Askarov (-2.6 GSAx in 5 GP, 84.8% SV) vs J. Saros (-1.9 GSAx in 5 GP, 89.7% SV).
- The Sharks are underwater at -7 goal differential over their 6 games so far.
- The Predators' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SJS
vs BOS · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
Y. Askarov
1 day rest.800 last start57:41 played
Backup Alex Nedeljkovic · +0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith20:50
- A. Wennberg20:00
- B. Goodrow11:43
- M. Marchment16:39
- I. Stenberg16:49
- K. Sherwood13:55
- C. Graf13:19
- Z. Ostapchuk10:48
- M. Celebrini19:51
- T. Toffoli12:44
- M. Misa12:30
- I. Chernyshov15:53
Defence · 6
- S. Dickinson19:57
- M. Kesselring19:15
- D. Orlov19:32
- D. Nurse17:39
- L. Cagnoni15:41
- J. Trouba21:14
NSH
vs VGK · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
J. Saros
1 day rest.800 last start60:00 played
Backup Matt Murray · +0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- F. Forsberg23:06
- A. Kerfoot16:31
- J. Drury16:52
- N. Hoglander12:21
- V. Pinchuk11:27
- M. Wood13:44
- R. Colton14:36
- J. Marchessault17:00
- A. Edstrom15:58
- R. O'Reilly20:22
- S. Stamkos18:53
Defence · 7
- A. Wilsby19:09
- J. Struble16:24
- N. Hague15:04
- J. Ahcan09:02
- N. Perbix15:24
- R. Josi23:03
- B. Skjei17:04
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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