TACTICAL
The Jets own the underlying play
The Jets own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 40.6%.
Preview · WPG at CHI
Jets at Blackhawks: no daylight between these two
The model's leanThu, Oct 15
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 15, 9:10 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Winnipeg and Chicago look close to even, and the model agrees. The Jets have the better case, but it is a thin one, and the reasons it may not hold are as important as the reasons it does.
The underlying play
The Jets have controlled the run of play at five-on-five, which is where most of a season's hockey happens. The table shows them ahead of the Blackhawks on expected goals and on shot attempts, the second of which points to a team that spends more time in the attacking zone. The model projects 3.3 goals for Winnipeg and 3.0 for Chicago.
| Season five-on-five | Jets | Blackhawks |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 50.0% | 40.6% |
| Shot attempt share | 46.9% | 42.9% |
| PDO (shooting plus save percentage) | 1.006 | 0.973 |
Form and goaltending
By points pace, Winnipeg is the hotter team, with a 4-1-1 record over six games. Chicago is underwater at -12 in goal differential over seven games.
In goal, S. Skinner has the stronger case. He has +2.5 goals saved above expected across four games. Skinner's save percentage is 91.7%.
S. Knight is at +0.6 goals saved above expected over five games. Knight's save percentage sits at 88.5%.
Chicago's luck
The Blackhawks' PDO is running cold, and the draft reads that as a sign that positive regression is due. A team getting less from its shooters and goalies than its play warrants is the classic candidate for a turnaround.
The verdict
Winnipeg has the better play and the better form. Chicago has the better luck coming its way. That split is why the model calls this a coin flip with a Winnipeg lean, and why the Jets should not be trusted to win comfortably.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
WPG 54%
54%
WPG
Model favorite
54%
46%
WPG50CHI
WPG by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WPG 3.3–3.0 CHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
WPG← edge
edge →CHI
50.0%40.6%
46.9%42.9%
3.192.62
3.193.83
3.002.43
2.834.14
1.0060.973
WPG holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.006 vs 0.973) says WPG has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6–7
WPG
4-1-1
+1 GD · 1d rest
CHI
2-5-0
-12 GD · 1d rest
1.006
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.973
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Jets drive Corsi at 46.9%
The Jets drive Corsi at 46.9% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCHI
Regression watch: Blackhawks
The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.973 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
No daylight between these two
Win probability splits 46%–54% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Jets own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 40.6%.
- The Jets drive Corsi at 46.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.973 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Jets own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 40.6%.
- The Jets drive Corsi at 46.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Skinner (+2.5 GSAx in 4 GP, 91.7% SV) vs S. Knight (+0.6 GSAx in 5 GP, 88.5% SV).
- The Jets are the hotter team by points pace (4-1-1 over their 6 games so far).
- The Blackhawks are underwater at -12 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.973 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
WPG
vs MIN · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
S. Skinner
1 day rest.905 last start59:49 played
Backup Clay Stevenson · -0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- V. Namestnikov13:28
- A. Iafallo15:13
- G. Vilardi18:53
- A. Lowry15:03
- I. Rosen13:04
- M. Barron14:02
- C. Koepke11:40
- M. Scheifele16:19
- V. Björck14:18
- N. Niederreiter12:55
- K. Connor17:26
- C. Perfetti16:13
Defence · 6
- D. DeMelo22:39
- N. Pionk23:50
- H. Fleury14:19
- M. Ferraro21:40
- D. Samberg24:06
- T. Bauer11:03
CHI
vs PIT · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
S. Knight
1 day rest.889 last start60:00 played
Backup Arvid Soderblom · -2.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Donato08:44
- O. Moore09:34
- J. Greenway13:34
- A. Frondell17:26
- R. Greene10:39
- C. Smith12:36
- D. Toninato08:25
- T. Bertuzzi16:06
- R. Kantserov18:52
- T. Teravainen16:44
- P. Kane20:04
- C. Bedard21:06
Defence · 6
- S. Rinzel14:52
- B. Byram24:37
- I. Cole18:54
- W. Kaiser16:24
- A. Levshunov21:33
- A. Vlasic21:50
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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