TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 62.3%
The Devils drive Corsi at 62.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · NYR at NJD
Rangers at Devils: too close to call
The model's leanThu, Oct 15
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 15, 9:10 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Devils get the nod, but only just. The model projects New Jersey 3.4 to New York 3.1, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
New Jersey's case starts with territory. The Devils own 62.3% of shot attempts at five-on-five, shots and misses combined, so they spend more of the night pushing play into the Rangers' zone. New York sits at 46.2%. Weight those attempts by quality and the gap nearly disappears, with the Devils at 55.9% of expected goals.
Luck is the other half of the story. New Jersey's combined on-ice shooting and save percentage is 0.936, which is cold enough that positive regression is due. New York's is 1.054, running hot, so some of that good fortune should fade.
Recent results lean the other way. The Rangers are the hotter club, 6-2-0 over their 8 games so far. The Devils are underwater, with a goal differential of -6 over 6 games.
In net, the matchup is D. Garand against J. Allen. D. Garand has stopped 2.9 more goals than the shots faced should have allowed over 4 games, and that save percentage is 95.1%. J. Allen has let in 1.7 more goals than that workload should have allowed over the same 4 games, with an 88.5% save percentage.
Put together, the Devils control the play, the Rangers have the hotter form, and the goaltending comparison favors Garand. That leaves New Jersey at 55% to win, a coin flip with a lean.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NJD 55%
55%
NJD
Model favorite
45%
55%
NYR50NJD
NJD by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYR 3.1–3.4 NJD; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NYR← edge
edge →NJD
54.7%55.9%
46.2%62.3%
3.453.91
2.853.08
3.382.67
1.753.67
1.0540.936
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.054 vs 0.936) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6–8
NYR
6-2-0
+13 GD · 1d rest
NJD
3-3-0
-6 GD · 1d rest
1.054
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.936
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGNJD
Regression watch: Devils
The Devils' PDO is 0.936 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGNYR
Regression watch: Rangers
The Rangers' PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 55%–45% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Devils drive Corsi at 62.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Devils' PDO is 0.936 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Rangers' PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils drive Corsi at 62.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: D. Garand (+2.9 GSAx in 4 GP, 95.1% SV) vs J. Allen (-1.7 GSAx in 4 GP, 88.5% SV).
- The Rangers are the hotter team by points pace (6-2-0 over their 8 games so far).
- The Devils are underwater at -6 goal differential over their 6 games so far.
- The Devils' PDO is 0.936 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NYR
vs TBL · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
D. Garand
1 day rest.962 last start59:45 played
Backup Igor Shesterkin · +6.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Miller20:19
- A. Lafrenière19:23
- P. Dorofeyev15:56
- E. Tolvanen14:20
- T. Kartye16:21
- O. Bjorkstrand07:35
- N. Laba17:45
- W. Cuylle16:59
- C. Beaudoin03:29
- M. Rempe03:43
- M. Zibanejad23:01
- G. Perreault19:56
Defence · 6
- B. Schneider15:49
- S. Durzi21:10
- A. Smits11:55
- A. Fox22:22
- M. Pettersson21:44
- V. Gavrikov20:28
NJD
vs DET · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
J. Allen
1 day rest.852 last start61:05 played
Backup Nico Daws · -2.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Noesen11:44
- C. Glass10:26
- N. Hischier16:22
- E. Rodrigues14:31
- T. Meier14:52
- A. Mantha12:23
- J. Bratt20:16
- J. Boqvist10:36
- A. Gritsyuk19:27
- J. Hughes23:31
- D. Mercer17:17
- A. Lombardi10:04
Defence · 6
- D. Hamilton20:32
- J. Kovacevic16:00
- B. Pesce23:50
- L. Hughes25:24
- D. Chisholm15:32
- J. Siegenthaler19:24
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going