WARNINGVAN
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season
Kevin Lankinen: -13.0 GSAx over 6 games.
Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.
Preview · VAN at FLA
The Panthers are the model's lean over the Canucks on the underlying numbers
The model's leanThu, Oct 15
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 15, 9:10 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward the Panthers, and the case is about how the two teams have actually played rather than where they sit in the standings. Florida has controlled more of the game, and the underlying numbers show it.
The model gives Florida a 60% chance to win. Its projected score is Vancouver 2.9, Florida 3.6. Florida is also the hotter side by points pace, going 3-2-2 through seven games. Vancouver is underwater, with a goal differential of -12 over eight games.
The Panthers own the underlying play. At five-on-five, Florida holds 52.2% of expected goals, a measure that weighs each shot by how likely it was to go in. Vancouver sits at 40.8%. Florida also holds 55.1% of shot attempts, so expect the pressure to tilt toward the Panthers' end.
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals, allowing 13.0 more than his shots should have produced across six games. The goaltending matchup is less lopsided. L. Meriläinen has a 92.6% save percentage in 5 games and has allowed exactly the goals his shots predicted. A. Schmid, in 3 games, has an 87.5% save percentage and has allowed 1.4 more goals than his shots should have produced.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
FLA 60%
60%
FLA
Model favorite
40%
60%
VAN50FLA
FLA by 20 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score VAN 2.9–3.6 FLA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VAN← edge
edge →FLA
40.8%52.2%
43.7%55.1%
2.443.29
3.553.01
3.252.71
4.752.86
0.9990.988
FLA holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.999 vs 0.988) says VAN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–8
VAN
2-6-0
-12 GD · 1d rest
FLA
3-2-2
-1 GD · 1d rest
0.999
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.988
FLA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Panthers own the underlying play
The Panthers own the underlying play — 52.2% 5v5 xG vs 40.8%.
TACTICAL
The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.1%
The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.1% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALFLA
The model's clear lean
The Panthers project at 60% win probability.
Where the edges live
- The Panthers own the underlying play — 52.2% 5v5 xG vs 40.8%.
- The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Panthers own the underlying play — 52.2% 5v5 xG vs 40.8%.
- The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Meriläinen (+0.0 GSAx in 5 GP, 92.6% SV) vs A. Schmid (-1.4 GSAx in 3 GP, 87.5% SV).
- The Panthers are the hotter team by points pace (3-2-2 over their 7 games so far).
- The Canucks are underwater at -12 goal differential over their 8 games so far.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VAN
vs NYI · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
L. Meriläinen
1 day rest.921 last start59:29 played
Backup Kevin Lankinen · -13.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Boeser17:49
- B. Gallagher11:33
- A. Bains10:55
- D. O'Connor14:55
- M. Rossi18:02
- E. Pettersson21:03
- P. Cotter15:30
- M. Sasson11:40
- J. DeBrusk17:12
- J. Lekkerimäki16:35
- L. Ohgren14:49
- L. Karlsson13:02
Defence · 6
- L. Schenn11:10
- J. Oleksiak16:50
- T. Willander25:43
- Z. Buium16:32
- F. Hronek24:53
- E. Pettersson16:37
FLA
vs CBJ · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
A. Schmid
1 day rest.889 last start60:00 played
Backup Jacob Markstrom · +2.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Tkachuk16:19
- S. Bennett15:48
- S. Reinhart19:24
- B. Imama10:00
- A. Lundell18:34
- S. Lafferty09:30
- M. Tkachuk17:20
- L. Eller16:31
- G. Hathaway10:49
- C. Verhaeghe18:24
- E. Luostarinen18:47
- S. Vilmanis13:25
Defence · 6
- S. Jones23:14
- A. Ekblad21:27
- D. Kulikov13:08
- U. Balinskis16:19
- G. Forsling19:36
- N. Mikkola17:25
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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