TACTICAL
The Lightning own the underlying play
The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.6% 5v5 xG vs 48.2%.
Preview · SEA at TBL
The Lightning are the model's lean over the Kraken — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 15
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 15, 9:09 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Tampa Bay is the model's pick over Seattle, and the case rests on which team controls the play. The projection has the Lightning winning 3.5 to 2.9.
Tampa Bay owns the underlying play at five-on-five. Its expected goals share is 54.6%, the measure of how much scoring chance quality a team generates relative to its opponent. Seattle's share sits at 48.2%. The Lightning also take more of the shot attempts, which should show up as territorial pressure, with the Kraken spending more time defending.
The Kraken are the team to watch for regression. Their shooting-plus-save sum, known as PDO, is 1.084, which is running hot. Numbers that high usually drift back toward average, so Seattle should expect some of its good fortune to cool.
In goal, P. Grubauer has a save percentage of 91.8% over 4 games, and his goals saved above expected sit at +2.4. A. Vasilevskiy has a save percentage of 88.6% over 5 games, with goals saved above expected at +1.1. Both samples are short, so the goaltending numbers should not carry the forecast on their own.
Put together, the play favors Tampa Bay, and Seattle's luck is the factor most likely to move against it.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
TBL 60%
60%
TBL
Model favorite
40%
60%
SEA50TBL
TBL by 20 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score SEA 2.9–3.5 TBL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SEA← edge
edge →TBL
48.2%54.6%
43.7%56.2%
3.143.38
3.372.81
4.002.83
2.712.67
1.0840.987
TBL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.084 vs 0.987) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6–7
SEA
5-2-0
+10 GD · 1d rest
TBL
4-2-0
+1 GD · 1d rest
1.084
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.987
TBL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.2%
The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.2% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSEA
Regression watch: Kraken
The Kraken's PDO is 1.084 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.6% 5v5 xG vs 48.2%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.084 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.6% 5v5 xG vs 48.2%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.2% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: P. Grubauer (+2.4 GSAx in 4 GP, 91.8% SV) vs A. Vasilevskiy (+1.1 GSAx in 5 GP, 88.6% SV).
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.084 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SEA
vs PHI · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
P. Grubauer
1 day rest.923 last start65:00 played
Backup Joey Daccord · +1.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eberle16:17
- C. Stephenson18:40
- M. Beniers20:31
- M. Samoskevich17:34
- J. McCann17:30
- R. Winterton13:51
- B. Catton16:20
- S. Wright12:58
- B. Meyers11:48
- B. McMann14:45
- K. Kakko15:49
- F. Gaudreau14:12
Defence · 6
- A. Larsson20:08
- J. Mahura11:45
- V. Dunn26:08
- R. Evans23:41
- V. Ottavainen09:33
- B. Montour30:09
TBL
vs NYR · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
A. Vasilevskiy
1 day rest.864 last start57:26 played
Backup Dennis Hildeby · +0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- B. Point20:12
- J. Viel09:09
- Z. Girgensons15:02
- P. Holmberg13:42
- B. Hagel20:57
- J. Guentzel18:44
- A. Cirelli15:30
- N. Kucherov23:15
- G. Goncalves16:20
- C. Geekie13:17
- I. Mikheyev13:50
Defence · 7
- M. Crozier18:19
- R. McDonagh12:17
- C. D'Astous14:01
- J. Carlson19:56
- V. Hedman13:16
- E. Cernak17:02
- J. Moser19:45
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going