TACTICAL
The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.9%
The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · NYI at OTT
The Senators are the model's lean over the Islanders — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 15
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 15, 9:09 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Ottawa is the model's pick tonight, but the case for the Senators rests on more than the scoreboard. Both teams have been getting a bounce from luck, and that matters as much as who is playing better.
The model has the Senators winning 57% of the time, which makes this a lean, not a lock. It projects 3.0 goals for the Islanders and 3.5 for Ottawa, so expect a game where both teams score.
The territorial picture favors Ottawa. The Islanders hold 47.9% of shot attempts at five-on-five, which is the number to watch for tilt. On expected goals, the Senators are at 50.3%. The Islanders trail them at 48.1%.
Luck is the bigger worry for the Islanders. Their combined shooting and save percentage, PDO, sits at 1.043. A reading that high usually means the puck is bouncing their way more than their play deserves, and that tends to even out. Ottawa is running hot too, at 1.019, so the regression argument applies to both benches.
Ottawa is also the hotter team on the table. The Senators are 5-2-0 over their 7 games so far.
The goalie matchup is where the lean firms up. I. Sorokin has stopped 93.4% of shots over 5 games. S. Ersson's save percentage is 82.9% over 3 games. I. Sorokin has the goals-saved edge, sitting 9.1 goals above his counterpart this season, which means he has kept the puck out of the net more than the workload should have allowed.
Expect the Senators to have the better of the territory and the better goaltending. Watch for the Islanders' shooting and save luck to come back to earth.
Data: National Hockey League API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 57%
58%
OTT
Model favorite
42%
58%
NYI50OTT
OTT by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score NYI 3.0–3.5 OTT; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NYI← edge
edge →OTT
48.1%50.3%
47.9%43.8%
2.953.03
3.182.99
3.172.86
2.502.71
1.0431.019
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.043 vs 1.019) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6–7
NYI
3-3-0
+4 GD · 1d rest
OTT
5-2-0
+2 GD · 1d rest
1.043
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.019
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGNYI
Regression watch: Islanders
The Islanders' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALOTT
S. Ersson was beatable last time out
S. Ersson stopped just 73.1% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: I. Sorokin (+4.5 GSAx in 5 GP, 93.4% SV) vs S. Ersson (-4.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 82.9% SV).
- I. Sorokin has the GSAx edge — 9.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Senators are the hotter team by points pace (5-2-0 over their 7 games so far).
- The Senators' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NYI
vs VAN · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
I. Sorokin
1 day rest.923 last start60:00 played
Backup Semyon Varlamov · +1.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Schenn16:41
- A. Duclair11:08
- B. Horvat19:49
- K. Palmieri16:44
- V. Eklund13:49
- J. Pageau14:59
- E. Heineman12:32
- C. Cizikas12:24
- M. Maccelli15:26
- C. Ritchie14:37
- O. Palat13:44
- S. Holmstrom13:15
Defence · 6
- A. Pelech19:56
- M. Kessel13:51
- R. Pulock20:10
- L. Stanley20:44
- M. Schaefer25:23
- T. DeAngelo17:02
OTT
vs STL · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
S. Ersson
1 day rest.731 last start58:53 played
Backup Linus Ullmark · +6.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto18:20
- T. Stützle22:05
- D. Batherson17:44
- F. Zetterlund12:55
- N. Cousins10:26
- M. Amadio14:12
- D. Cozens17:21
- C. Giroux16:59
- S. Halliday14:32
- W. Foegele11:12
- R. Greig14:06
- A. Burakovsky14:53
Defence · 6
- J. Spence20:47
- C. Yakemchuk22:25
- T. Kleven19:34
- J. Donovan09:12
- T. Chabot27:51
- H. Stanley11:52
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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