TACTICAL
The Sabres own the underlying play
The Sabres own the underlying play — 51.2% 5v5 xG vs 46.4%.
Preview · BUF at TOR
Sabres at Maple Leafs: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanThu, Oct 15
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 15, 9:09 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Sabres are projected to edge the Maple Leafs 3.4 goals to 3.2, and the model reads the game as close to a pick'em as you will find.
Buffalo's chance to win sits at 53%, so the edge is real but thin. The underlying play leans their way. At five-on-five, Buffalo holds 51.2% of expected goals against Toronto's 46.4%, which means the Sabres have been generating the better scoring chances. The shot-attempt picture points the same direction, with Buffalo taking 53.6% of attempts, so expect the territory to tilt toward the Sabres.
Toronto is the team to watch for a bounce. The Maple Leafs' PDO, the sum of a team's shooting and save percentages, is 0.980. The model reads that as running cold and due for positive regression. Buffalo's 0.962 is also running cold, which the model flags the same way.
Buffalo comes in underwater, with a goal differential of -7 over its 7 games so far.
In goal, U. Luukkonen has let in more goals than that workload should have allowed. His goals saved above expected sit at -3.0 across 5 games, and his save percentage is 85.0%. A. Stolarz has played 3 games, with goals saved above expected of -1.9 and a save percentage of 87.5%.
The numbers lean toward Buffalo without settling the game, which is why the model calls it a coin flip.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
BUF 53%
53%
BUF
Model favorite
53%
47%
BUF50TOR
BUF by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BUF 3.4–3.2 TOR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BUF← edge
edge →TOR
51.2%46.4%
53.6%48.3%
3.253.22
3.103.72
2.713.43
3.573.14
0.9620.980
BUF holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.962 vs 0.980) says TOR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7
BUF
3-3-1
-7 GD · 1d rest
TOR
3-3-1
+1 GD · 1d rest
0.962
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.980
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Sabres drive Corsi at 53.6%
The Sabres drive Corsi at 53.6% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGTOR
Regression watch: Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGBUF
Regression watch: Sabres
The Sabres' PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 51.2% 5v5 xG vs 46.4%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 53.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 51.2% 5v5 xG vs 46.4%.
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 53.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: U. Luukkonen (-3.0 GSAx in 5 GP, 85.0% SV) vs A. Stolarz (-1.9 GSAx in 3 GP, 87.5% SV).
- The Sabres are underwater at -7 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BUF
vs MTL · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
U. Luukkonen
1 day rest.921 last start65:00 played
Backup Colten Ellis · -0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson19:36
- J. Norris11:51
- J. Danforth09:58
- P. Krebs13:12
- J.Kulich16:51
- J. Quinn19:01
- B. Malenstyn11:55
- R. McLeod14:22
- T. Thompson22:26
- N. Ostlund19:40
- J. Doan17:23
- K. Helenius14:15
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger25:49
- M. Samuelsson26:38
- O. Power28:22
- D. Gilbert08:41
- L. Crevier12:43
- Z. Metsa14:58
TOR
vs UTA · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
A. Stolarz
1 day rest.821 last start57:26 played
Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · +4.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- C. Sissons15:00
- N. Paul14:01
- B. Duhaime09:20
- A. Matthews20:12
- E. Cowan16:55
- T. Blueger11:45
- K. Marchenko18:41
- W. Nylander21:49
- J. Tavares18:03
- G. McKenna17:08
- J. Roslovic17:36
Defence · 7
- N. Blankenburg11:21
- J. McCabe18:21
- T. Stecher16:50
- D. Raddysh24:39
- M. Rielly16:09
- M. Rifai09:04
- O. Ekman-Larsson17:40
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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