WARNINGTOR
Regression watch: Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Preview · NYI at TOR
Islanders at Maple Leafs: too close to call
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Our model cannot pick a favorite in this one, and it says so plainly. This is about as close to a pick'em as you will find, and the margins will decide it.
The model gives Toronto a 50% chance to win, and the Islanders sit a hair behind. Neither team separates itself on the underlying play either.
This Season, 5-on-5
| Islanders | Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 46.6% | 46.3% |
| Shot attempts share | 49.6% | 47.9% |
| Shooting plus save percentage (PDO) | 1.036 | 0.980 |
Expected goals share weighs each shot by how likely it was to go in. Shot attempts share counts every try, on target or not. The real split is in the last row. PDO adds a team's shooting and save percentages together, so it shows how much of a team's results came from finishing and goaltending rather than play. Toronto's is running cold and is due for positive regression. The Islanders' is running hot, and the model expects some of that to fade.
In goal, S. Varlamov has played 2 games and stopped 3.3 more goals than his shots should have allowed. His save percentage is 90.5%. S. Bobrovsky has played 5 games, stopped 2.4 more goals than his workload should have allowed, and holds an 89.6% save percentage.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
TOR 51%
51%
TOR
Model favorite
49%
51%
NYI50TOR
TOR by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYI 3.3–3.3 TOR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NYI← edge
edge →TOR
46.6%46.3%
49.6%47.9%
2.773.17
3.183.68
2.863.50
2.293.38
1.0360.980
NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.036 vs 0.980) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–8
NYI
3-3-1
+3 GD · 1d rest
TOR
3-3-2
+0 GD · 1d rest
1.036
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.980
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGNYI
Regression watch: Islanders
The Islanders' PDO is 1.036 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 50%–49% — margins decide this one.
Regression watch
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.036 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: S. Varlamov (+3.3 GSAx in 2 GP, 90.5% SV) vs S. Bobrovsky (+2.4 GSAx in 5 GP, 89.6% SV).
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NYI
vs OTT · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
S. Varlamov
1 day rest.950 last start65:00 played
Backup Ilya Sorokin · +4.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Schenn16:27
- A. Duclair09:38
- B. Horvat23:22
- K. Palmieri17:12
- V. Eklund13:49
- J. Pageau15:34
- E. Heineman18:30
- C. Cizikas11:49
- M. Maccelli18:26
- C. Ritchie10:38
- O. Palat13:37
- S. Holmstrom17:00
Defence · 6
- A. Pelech22:02
- M. Kessel10:26
- R. Pulock20:31
- L. Stanley26:34
- M. Schaefer29:33
- T. DeAngelo15:00
TOR
vs BUF · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
S. Bobrovsky
1 day rest.857 last start63:14 played
Backup Anthony Stolarz · -1.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Sissons17:49
- Z. MacEwen05:27
- N. Paul17:13
- B. Duhaime11:42
- A. Matthews22:14
- E. Cowan16:39
- T. Blueger14:43
- K. Marchenko18:36
- W. Nylander22:18
- J. Tavares11:47
- G. McKenna06:36
- J. Roslovic19:04
Defence · 6
- N. Blankenburg15:37
- J. McCabe23:30
- T. Stecher17:08
- D. Raddysh27:09
- M. Rielly18:35
- O. Ekman-Larsson19:35
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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