WARNINGMTL
Regression watch: Canadiens
The Canadiens' PDO is 0.963 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Preview · BUF at MTL
Sabres at Canadiens: no daylight between these two
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Expect a coin flip. The model projects a final score of Buffalo 3.3, Montreal 3.4, and the case for either side is thin enough that margins will decide it.
Montreal's win probability is 50%, a hair above Buffalo's, which is about as close to a pick'em as this league produces.
The two teams have been strong in different ways. Montreal has taken more of the shot volume at five-on-five, with a 55.5% share of shot attempts. Buffalo has the edge on quality, holding 51.6% of expected goals, which weighs how dangerous those chances were rather than how many there were. That split is why the model sees no daylight.
The bigger swing factor is finishing luck, which the draft tracks as PDO, the sum of a team's shooting and save percentages. Montreal is the colder of the two, with a PDO of 0.963. Buffalo is running cold too, at 0.972, so the draft expects positive regression for both clubs, meaning the bounces should start to even out.
Buffalo comes in underwater, with a goal differential of -6 through 8 games.
In goal, both starters have been below expectation. U. Luukkonen sits at -4.3 goals saved above expected over 6 games, which means he has let in more goals than his shots should have allowed. His save percentage is 85.4%. J. Dobes matches that -4.3 over 4 games, and his save percentage is 84.2%.
Neither net gives either side a clear edge, which leaves margins to decide it.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MTL 51%
51%
MTL
Model favorite
49%
51%
BUF50MTL
MTL by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BUF 3.3–3.4 MTL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BUF← edge
edge →MTL
51.6%48.6%
53.8%55.5%
3.273.25
3.063.43
3.003.00
3.633.86
0.9720.963
BUF holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.972 vs 0.963) says BUF has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–8
BUF
4-3-1
-6 GD · 1d rest
MTL
3-3-1
-4 GD · 2d rest
0.972
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.963
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGBUF
Regression watch: Sabres
The Sabres' PDO is 0.972 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
No daylight between these two
Win probability splits 50%–49% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALMTL
J. Dobes was beatable last time out
J. Dobes stopped just 79.2% in his last start.
Regression watch
- The Canadiens' PDO is 0.963 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.972 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: U. Luukkonen (-4.3 GSAx in 6 GP, 85.4% SV) vs J. Dobes (-4.3 GSAx in 4 GP, 84.2% SV).
- The Sabres are underwater at -6 goal differential over their 8 games so far.
- The Canadiens' PDO is 0.963 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BUF
vs TOR · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
U. Luukkonen
1 day rest.867 last start63:14 played
Backup Colten Ellis · -0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson21:18
- J. Norris14:50
- S. Carrick05:46
- J. Danforth06:08
- P. Krebs16:22
- J. Quinn18:04
- B. Malenstyn08:03
- R. McLeod18:38
- T. Thompson21:11
- N. Ostlund21:39
- J. Doan17:22
- K. Helenius15:11
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger24:28
- M. Samuelsson28:24
- O. Power28:01
- D. Gilbert10:37
- L. Crevier16:26
- Z. Metsa12:36
MTL
vs WSH · Wed, Oct 14
Expected in goal
J. Dobes
2 days rest.792 last start57:14 played
Backup Jacob Fowler · +2.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Caufield19:53
- N. Suzuki20:15
- A. Newhook15:52
- J. Anderson13:49
- J. Slafkovský19:40
- C. Kreider15:31
- P. Danault17:39
- O. Beck07:46
- J. Evans12:33
- Z. Bolduc12:34
- K. Dach09:08
- A. Texier12:26
Defence · 6
- K. Guhle22:22
- A. Engstrom11:57
- A. Carrier20:42
- L. Hutson24:14
- N. Dobson22:21
- A. Xhekaj14:16
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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