TACTICAL
The Red Wings own the underlying play
The Red Wings own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 40.5%.
Preview · SJS at DET
The Red Wings are the model's lean over the Sharks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Detroit, and the case rests on how the two teams have played at even strength. The Red Wings have been the better side, and the Sharks have been unlucky.
Detroit holds 50.0% of expected goals at five-on-five, against 40.5% for San Jose. That gap is the core of the lean. Detroit also controls shot attempts at 52.7%, which should show up as territorial tilt toward the Red Wings.
San Jose's luck is the other half of the story. PDO, the sum of shooting and save percentage, sits at 0.940 for the Sharks. A reading that low tends to correct upward, which is what the draft means by positive regression.
Both teams are underwater over their 7 games so far. Detroit is at -5 in goal differential, and San Jose is at -6.
The goalie matchup is A. Nedeljkovic against D. Tarasov, and both samples are small. A. Nedeljkovic has 2.6 goals saved above expected in 2 games. D. Tarasov is ahead on that measure, at 5.0 over 3 games.
The model gives Detroit a 58% win probability. The number to watch is whether San Jose's cold PDO turns.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
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Win probability
The model's lean
DET 58%
59%
DET
Model favorite
41%
59%
SJS50DET
DET by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score SJS 3.0–3.5 DET; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →DET
40.5%50.0%
46.5%52.7%
2.493.33
3.663.33
2.572.29
3.572.86
0.9400.993
DET holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.940 vs 0.993) says DET has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7
SJS
4-3-0
-6 GD · 1d rest
DET
2-3-2
-5 GD · 1d rest
0.940
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.993
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 52.7%
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 52.7% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.940 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 40.5%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 52.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.940 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 40.5%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 52.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: A. Nedeljkovic (+2.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 93.3% SV) vs D. Tarasov (+5.0 GSAx in 3 GP, 96.5% SV).
- The Red Wings are underwater at -5 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
- The Sharks are underwater at -6 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.940 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SJS
vs NSH · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
A. Nedeljkovic
1 day rest.941 last start65:00 played
Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -2.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith19:48
- A. Wennberg21:54
- B. Goodrow12:01
- M. Marchment15:39
- I. Stenberg14:01
- K. Sherwood19:16
- C. Graf14:53
- Z. Ostapchuk10:14
- M. Celebrini23:39
- T. Toffoli13:32
- M. Misa13:02
- I. Chernyshov11:10
Defence · 6
- N. Allan15:28
- S. Dickinson24:39
- M. Kesselring18:58
- D. Orlov18:36
- L. Cagnoni16:35
- J. Trouba24:33
DET
vs PHI · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
D. Tarasov
1 day rest.944 last start60:00 played
Backup John Gibson · -2.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- S. Dries06:55
- A. Copp17:48
- L. Raymond21:45
- M. Rasmussen15:42
- M. Brandsegg-Nygård15:07
- N. Danielson13:54
- V. Arvidsson19:59
- K. Kolesar07:57
- E. Finnie16:16
- D. Larkin23:15
- A. DeBrincat20:55
Defence · 7
- B. Chiarot20:12
- A. Johansson15:03
- A. Johansson10:34
- A. Sandin-Pellikka07:41
- M. Seider25:47
- W. Wallinder16:51
- J. Faulk18:19
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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