TACTICAL
The Senators own the underlying play
The Senators own the underlying play — 51.8% 5v5 xG vs 35.8%.
Preview · OTT at PHI
The Senators are the model's lean over the Flyers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a 3.2 - 2.9 game in Ottawa's favor. It is a lean, not a lock, and the case rests on how both teams have played and on what their results may be hiding.
The Senators are 6-2-0 over eight games, and the model gives them a 56% chance to win. The Flyers have a goal differential of -22 over nine games, which is a hole the model's lean has to climb out of.
Ottawa's share of five-on-five expected goals, the chance-quality measure that weights each shot by how likely it is to become a goal, is 51.8%. That is the only share on this page above even, and Philadelphia sits at 35.8%. Shot attempts tell a more modest story. The Senators take 43.3% of them, ahead of the Flyers' 40.2%, so expect a territorial tilt toward Ottawa rather than a rout.
The bigger swing factor is luck, measured by PDO, the sum of a team's shooting and save percentages. The Flyers are at 0.954, which is running cold and due for positive regression. The Senators are at 1.019, which is running hot, so expect some regression on their side too.
In goal, the matchup is L. Ullmark against J. Woll. Ullmark has been worth +6.8 goals saved above expected across six games played. His save percentage is 94.9%. J. Woll is at +4.0 over five games, with a 91.6% save percentage.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 56%
56%
OTT
Model favorite
56%
44%
OTT50PHI
OTT by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score OTT 3.2–2.9 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →PHI
51.8%35.8%
43.3%40.2%
3.032.15
2.823.85
2.631.22
2.503.56
1.0190.954
OTT holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.019 vs 0.954) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–9
OTT
6-2-0
+3 GD · 1d rest
PHI
0-6-3
-22 GD · 1d rest
1.019
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.954
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Senators drive Corsi at 43.3%
The Senators drive Corsi at 43.3% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGPHI
Regression watch: Flyers
The Flyers' PDO is 0.954 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Senators own the underlying play — 51.8% 5v5 xG vs 35.8%.
- The Senators drive Corsi at 43.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.954 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Senators own the underlying play — 51.8% 5v5 xG vs 35.8%.
- The Senators drive Corsi at 43.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Ullmark (+6.8 GSAx in 6 GP, 94.9% SV) vs J. Woll (+4.0 GSAx in 5 GP, 91.6% SV).
- The Senators are the hotter team by points pace (6-2-0 over their 8 games so far).
- The Flyers are underwater at -22 goal differential over their 9 games so far.
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.954 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
OTT
vs NYI · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
L. Ullmark
1 day rest.952 last start65:00 played
Backup Samuel Ersson · -4.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto17:04
- T. Stützle23:50
- D. Batherson20:02
- F. Zetterlund13:39
- N. Cousins10:04
- M. Amadio14:12
- D. Cozens17:52
- C. Giroux16:27
- S. Halliday16:52
- W. Foegele13:37
- R. Greig17:30
- A. Burakovsky13:09
Defence · 6
- A. Zub18:29
- C. Crotty11:42
- J. Spence23:54
- C. Yakemchuk18:51
- T. Kleven21:18
- T. Chabot24:37
PHI
vs DET · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
J. Woll
1 day rest.923 last start59:55 played
Backup Dan Vladar · -2.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Couturier16:30
- C. Dvorak18:21
- J. Studnicka08:13
- N. Cates13:22
- M. Michkov13:40
- T. Zegras17:59
- N. Acciari13:42
- M. Bunting10:03
- T. Foerster17:18
- O. Tippett15:36
- D. Barkey15:28
- P. Martone12:29
Defence · 6
- D.Jiricek15:29
- T. Sanheim24:32
- J. Drysdale22:06
- N. Seeler21:18
- S. Benoit14:30
- O. Bonk20:00
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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