TACTICAL
The Stars own the underlying play
The Stars own the underlying play — 52.9% 5v5 xG vs 41.7%.
Preview · DAL at CHI
The Stars are the model's lean over the Blackhawks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:06 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Dallas, projecting a 3.3 - 2.9 win over Chicago. The lean rests on how the two teams have played at even strength, and the Stars have been the stronger side.
Dallas owns 52.9% of expected goals at five-on-five, the share of scoring chances weighted by how likely each was to go in. Chicago sits at 41.7%. The Stars also take more of the shot attempts, at 49.9% to the Blackhawks' 42.4%, which is the territorial tilt to watch.
The catch is luck. PDO is the sum of a team's shooting and save percentages, and it tends to drift back toward average over time. Chicago's 0.981 is well below that line, so the Blackhawks are running cold and should bounce back. Dallas's 1.034 is running hot, which means some of its advantage may cool off.
The scoreboard has not helped Chicago either. The Blackhawks are at -11 in goal differential through 8 games.
In goal, C. DeSmith has allowed fewer goals than his shots predicted, saving 0.9 more than expected over 2 games. He has a 92.5% save percentage. S. Knight has saved 1.0 more than expected over 6 games, with an 89.0% save percentage. The goalie matchup is close on the numbers, so the outcome will likely turn on whether Chicago's shooting cools off on schedule.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DAL 57%
57%
DAL
Model favorite
57%
43%
DAL50CHI
DAL by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score DAL 3.3–2.9 CHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
DAL← edge
edge →CHI
52.9%41.7%
49.9%42.4%
2.902.71
2.593.78
2.142.63
1.714.00
1.0340.981
DAL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.034 vs 0.981) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–8
DAL
3-3-1
+3 GD · 2d rest
CHI
3-5-0
-11 GD · 1d rest
1.034
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.981
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Stars drive Corsi at 49.9%
The Stars drive Corsi at 49.9% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCHI
Regression watch: Blackhawks
The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGDAL
Regression watch: Stars
The Stars' PDO is 1.034 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 52.9% 5v5 xG vs 41.7%.
- The Stars drive Corsi at 49.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Stars' PDO is 1.034 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Stars own the underlying play — 52.9% 5v5 xG vs 41.7%.
- The Stars drive Corsi at 49.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. DeSmith (+0.9 GSAx in 2 GP, 92.5% SV) vs S. Knight (+1.0 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.0% SV).
- The Blackhawks are underwater at -11 goal differential over their 8 games so far.
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
DAL
vs COL · Wed, Oct 14
Expected in goal
C. DeSmith
2 days rest.926 last start65:00 played
Backup Jake Oettinger · +6.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- O. Bäck03:04
- R. Faksa12:41
- J. Benn12:58
- C. Blackwell10:58
- S. Steel18:39
- J. Robertson22:23
- J. Kiviranta13:36
- R. Hintz18:05
- A. Hyry14:40
- J. Hryckowian19:37
- T. Seguin14:59
- M. Rantanen23:06
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen30:03
- N. Lundkvist17:02
- L. Bichsel13:17
- E. Lindell24:51
- T. Harley23:04
- T. Myers13:57
CHI
vs WPG · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
S. Knight
1 day rest.912 last start61:37 played
Backup Arvid Soderblom · -2.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Donato13:51
- O. Moore13:19
- J. Greenway10:47
- A. Frondell17:31
- R. Greene13:09
- C. Smith11:08
- T. Bertuzzi16:32
- R. Kantserov18:42
- T. Teravainen17:56
- P. Kane18:20
- F. Nazar15:57
- C. Bedard19:05
Defence · 6
- S. Rinzel19:41
- I. Cole15:02
- E. Del Mastro13:24
- W. Kaiser21:41
- A. Levshunov21:34
- A. Vlasic21:49
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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