TACTICAL
The Blues own the underlying play
The Blues own the underlying play — 50.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.2%.
Preview · STL at NSH
Blues at Predators: a true toss-up
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Nashville and St. Louis look evenly matched, and the model's projected final, Predators 3.1 to Blues 3.0, says the same thing: a coin flip with a slight lean toward the home side. The real question is which team's strengths hold up over a full game.
The model gives Nashville a 51% chance, which is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The season five-on-five numbers below show where each side's case comes from.
Season five-on-five numbers
| Metric | STL | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 50.8% | 47.2% |
| Shot attempt share | 50.8% | 44.7% |
| Shooting plus save percentage | 0.982 | 0.968 |
St. Louis has the better case on the ice. The Blues hold the stronger expected-goals share, a measure of the quality of chances each team creates and allows, and they also control more of the shot attempts. Expect territorial tilt toward St. Louis.
Nashville's counter is luck. The Predators' shooting-plus-save figure is the lowest on the table, which means their results have run colder than their process, and they are due for positive regression.
In goal, J. Hofer carries the stronger numbers so far, with 2.6 goals saved above expected across five games. J. Saros sits at -0.7 over six games, meaning he has allowed slightly more than his shots predicted. Their save percentages are nearly identical, so the gap comes from the expected-goals adjustment, which weighs shot quality, rather than from the raw save rate.
The numbers split almost evenly, so the honest call is the one the model gives: Nashville, narrowly, in a game nobody should feel sure about.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NSH 51%
51%
NSH
Model favorite
49%
51%
STL50NSH
NSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score STL 3.0–3.1 NSH; 17% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
STL← edge
edge →NSH
50.8%47.2%
50.8%44.7%
2.982.72
2.893.05
3.572.57
3.292.86
0.9820.968
STL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.982 vs 0.968) says STL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7
STL
3-3-1
+2 GD · 1d rest
NSH
2-2-3
-4 GD · 1d rest
0.982
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.968
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Blues drive Corsi at 50.8%
The Blues drive Corsi at 50.8% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGNSH
Regression watch: Predators
The Predators' PDO is 0.968 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Blues own the underlying play — 50.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.2%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 50.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Predators' PDO is 0.968 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Blues' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Blues own the underlying play — 50.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.2%.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 50.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Hofer (+2.6 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.6% SV) vs J. Saros (-0.7 GSAx in 6 GP, 90.4% SV).
- The Predators' PDO is 0.968 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
STL
vs MIN · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
1 day rest.872 last start57:27 played
Backup Jordan Binnington · -4.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- D. Dvorsky11:22
- R. Thomas22:49
- J. Snuggerud20:28
- P. Suter15:09
- J. Berggren15:13
- D. Peterson08:12
- R. Johnston06:22
- Z. Dean07:27
- J. Neighbours13:40
- C. McMichael16:45
- D. Holloway23:15
- M. McTavish14:36
Defence · 6
- P. Broberg22:26
- C. Fowler20:13
- B. Carlo16:43
- A. Jiricek15:43
- C. Parayko26:01
- J. Barron16:14
NSH
vs SJS · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
J. Saros
1 day rest.938 last start62:48 played
Backup Matt Murray · +0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- F. Forsberg24:17
- A. Kerfoot20:03
- J. Drury17:05
- N. Hoglander08:13
- R. Schaefer10:37
- V. Pinchuk08:19
- M. Wood19:39
- R. Colton13:12
- J. Marchessault17:45
- A. Edstrom12:58
- R. O'Reilly21:43
- S. Stamkos20:34
Defence · 6
- A. Wilsby21:49
- J. Struble14:38
- N. Hague15:25
- N. Perbix16:51
- R. Josi28:31
- B. Skjei19:33
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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