WARNINGBOS
M. DiPietro on a back-to-back
M. DiPietro projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · BOS at LAK
The Kings are the model's lean over the Bruins — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:06 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans Los Angeles, and the reasons go deeper than the scoreboard. The Bruins look like the better side on results, but the model sees a team whose results are running ahead of its play, and a Kings side that has been unlucky.
The model projects the Bruins at 2.9 and the Kings at 3.4, which gives Los Angeles a 57% chance to win. That is a lean, not a lock.
Rest is the most concrete edge. The Kings arrive on 3 days off, while the Bruins have none. M. DiPietro projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs.
The Bruins are the hotter team on points pace, at 6-2-0 through 8 games. The Kings sit at -10 in goal differential over 5 games, and that gap is what the underlying numbers are supposed to explain.
They do. The Kings own the underlying play. Their expected goals share at five-on-five is 51.2%, against 46.6% for the Bruins. Shot attempts point the same way, with Los Angeles taking 52.6%, which should show up as a territorial tilt toward the Kings.
The complication is luck, measured by PDO, the sum of a team's shooting and save percentages. The Kings sit at 0.935, running cold and due for positive regression. The Bruins sit at 1.063, running hot and should expect some regression. If the model is right, Los Angeles's results catch up to its play while Boston's cool off.
In goal, the gap is the sharpest number on the card. M. DiPietro is at +2.3 goals saved above expected through 2 games, with a 91.1% save percentage. D. Kuemper is at -5.9 through 4 games, with an 84.7% save percentage. That difference works out to 8.2 goals this season in M. DiPietro's favor.
The lean, in short, is the Kings' play and the Bruins' luck, with the goaltending adding weight.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
LAK 57%
57%
LAK
Model favorite
43%
57%
BOS50LAK
LAK by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 2.9–3.4 LAK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BOS← edge
edge →LAK
46.6%51.2%
48.5%52.6%
3.042.66
3.482.54
3.752.20
2.254.20
1.0630.935
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.063 vs 0.935) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–8
BOS
6-2-0
+12 GD · 0d rest
LAK
0-3-2
-10 GD · 3d rest
1.063
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.935
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALLAK
Rest edge
The Kings come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 0.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
TACTICAL
The Kings own the underlying play
The Kings own the underlying play — 51.2% 5v5 xG vs 46.6%.
TACTICAL
The Kings drive Corsi at 52.6%
The Kings drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Where the edges live
- The Kings own the underlying play — 51.2% 5v5 xG vs 46.6%.
- The Kings drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Kings' PDO is 0.935 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.063 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Kings own the underlying play — 51.2% 5v5 xG vs 46.6%.
- The Kings drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: M. DiPietro (+2.3 GSAx in 2 GP, 91.1% SV) vs D. Kuemper (-5.9 GSAx in 4 GP, 84.7% SV).
- M. DiPietro has the GSAx edge — 8.2 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Bruins are the hotter team by points pace (6-2-0 over their 8 games so far).
- The Kings are underwater at -10 goal differential over their 5 games so far.
- The Kings' PDO is 0.935 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Kings have 3 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BOS
vs ANA · Fri, Oct 16
Expected in goal
M. DiPietro
back-to-back.926 last start60:00 played
Backup Jeremy Swayman · +6.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka14:14
- C. Mittelstadt10:25
- P. Zacha17:04
- E. Lindholm18:30
- M. Geekie19:59
- J. Hagens10:03
- M. Kastelic08:59
- M. Poitras09:18
- T. Jeannot11:25
- D. Pastrnak20:35
- M. Khusnutdinov14:35
- F. Minten17:05
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei15:21
- W. Borgen18:02
- H. Lindholm25:51
- F. Brunet13:58
- C. McAvoy26:54
- N. Zadorov17:42
LAK
vs EDM · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
D. Kuemper
3 days rest.571 last start20:00 played
D. Kuemper started last game and was relieved by A. Forsberg (39:07 of it).
Backup Anton Forsberg · -2.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- A. Kempe23:04
- A. Panarin24:00
- T. Moore17:07
- A. Laferriere17:44
- S. Laughton14:21
- J. Armia15:46
- A. Lee07:48
- Q. Byfield21:34
- E. Haula16:10
- S. Helenius08:51
- C. Perry13:46
Defence · 7
- B. Dumoulin13:57
- C. Ceci13:16
- J. Edmundson14:16
- D. Doughty18:28
- M. Anderson13:23
- E. Gustafsson21:38
- B. Clarke21:12
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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